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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-07-2019, 10:53 AM   #31
lone speed
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Blue Grass Chart

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Old 04-07-2019, 10:56 AM   #32
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Santa Anita Derby Chart

The main track at Santa Anita after the brief closure has been "refurbished"? Track speed is noticeably much slower. The Big Cap was run in 2:03+...


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Old 04-07-2019, 10:58 AM   #33
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Final fractions from Pat Infante

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Old 04-07-2019, 11:07 AM   #34
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One Major Prep Race ( mile and an eighth race) to go

The Arkansas Derby will be the last major prep race remaining from all of the Derby Prep races. The big three: Improbable, Long Range Toddy and Omaha will battle it out in the Arkansas Derby. Baffert's Improbable will need a top three finish to secure a starting gate in the Kentucky Derby.

Here are the 2019 Kentucky Derby Potential Starters barring defections. The Lexington Stakes will also be run next week but the first place will be worth only 20pts. Anothertwistafate will need to win to secure a starting gate berth.

After this weekend's Derby Prep races, it looks like Baffert's Roadster and Game Winner will be the top two choices for the Kentucky Derby based on Pool 4 Futures wagering.

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Old 04-07-2019, 11:38 AM   #35
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Anothertwistafate will run in the Lexington at Keeneland. A first or second will put him into the mix.
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Old 04-14-2019, 11:32 AM   #36
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Arkansas Derby result

The last major Derby prep race was won by Omaha Beach over Improbable who reared up inside the starting gate prior to the start and had to be reloaded. Great horse race even though it was run over a sloppy track.

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Old 04-14-2019, 11:35 AM   #37
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Current potential Derby starters barring defections

Thanks to Pat Infante for latest update with last fractions.. Side-note: under the Sartin Methodology- Sartin stressed top Hidden Energy and Sustained Energy.


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Old 04-14-2019, 11:45 AM   #38
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Interesting Derby Prep form to compare with Improbable

Bob Baffert will have 3 out of the top 4 betting choices in the 2019 Kentucky Derby. More than likely, Omaha Beach will be the starting gate favorite after his sterling win over Improbable who gave a vain chase in the Arkansas Derby.

I wanted to compare Baffert's Real Quiet who won the 1998 Kentucky Derby. Real Quiet's Derby prep races form seem comparable to Improbable's Derby prep races in form and in energy exertions prior to the Kentucky Derby race.

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Old 04-16-2019, 09:45 AM   #39
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CJ's US Timeform speed figures

I pasted a copy of CJ's US Timeform figures. IMHO, CJ's speed figures are more stable and reliable than Beyer's # . Andy Beyer did an overall of his numbers recently. You cannot compare the Beyer numbers of today with prior Beyer numbers.

In terms of Profitability- I have not tested them.

Many thanks and credit to CJ for sharing his speed figures, publicly....


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Old 04-18-2019, 12:32 AM   #40
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Bris past performances of top points contenders

Here is a link to an early Brisnet Past Performances of the top contenders for the 2019 Kentucky Derby:

http://www.brisnet.com/wp-content/up...by19Points.pdf
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