Average daily varients

[ISPHI]

Hi all
Greetings

I was wondering if one can create ADV by himself/herself. I need to know on this part as at the track i am trying to apply this methodology, there are no concept of adv. Furtherwe don't have a fractions time and beaten length but i can work it out and create a database that i would need. The only concern of me is to know vaibility of the huge uphill task i am taking on my back may be without adv it may not give close or accurate results so badly need to know on it

Basically i am a turf track player
Any advice?? To read any specific mannual?? Or how well does sartin pace do on turf??

Secondly need to adjust weight of every runner every racr ii am into handicap races

Now anyone giving me outline of how to make track models track to track adjustment, average daily variants and distance age adjustments once i m done on this i can start working on data collection and working out races with sartin method and read more and more

Anyway reading mannual match up brought me a winner

Thanks jim

Late night yesterday i was reading mannal i read few things in manual for several times

Then was glancing at the card
I searched early runners i saw only one of seven horse did take lead that to in only one race which was last race ran 2 weeks back now i asked a question to myself can it lead again?? If so why?? Soon i saw blinkers were put on last out (i have somewhere here read blinkers make horse run faster on early stage with few exceptions) so answer was yes horsse is in lead then searched sustained pace who could beat him looking at fractions and just chose one horse

I had no plan but i still walked upto a counter gave 1000 (approx. 16.5$) and came back home and now i am delighted to say i pursed 24600 ($ 406) and felt great

It was just a luck by chance?? I dont think so but may be

[Peteman]

Hi Jim,

I take it you are going old school here.And and are creating feet per sec.
numbers by hand,or spread sheet.You will need the drf program that has
all 3 calls with beaten lengths.and a drf speed rating/track variant number.
You can use the racing form,or express bet or drf bets,has free pp's on
the tracks that you wager on.they are pdf download files.

Free pp's from Bris from trainers,whobet does a good job.
http://www.trks2day.com/wedday.html

I suggest reading Modern Pace handicapping,Then Pace makes the Race.
if you like creating numbers, or Jim Bradshaw for matching up horses.
These books will answer most of your questions you asked.

The advantage you can create for yourself can be significant.in having
your own unique numbers,is this what your shooting for.do you have a lot of time on your hands.Are you good with spread sheets and computer code.
very time consuming.most people here use data files and software.
to do the heavy work of the calculations.my best guess is to find a software
program and learn it a little at a time and model the readouts for patterns

Best of luck Pete

[ISPHI]

Originally Posted by Peteman

Hi Jim,

I take it you are going old school here.And and are creating feet per sec.
numbers by hand,or spread sheet.You will need the drf program that has
all 3 calls with beaten lengths.and a drf speed rating/track variant number.
You can use the racing form,or express bet or drf bets,has free pp's on
the tracks that you wager on.they are pdf download files.

Free pp's from Bris from trainers,whobet does a good job.
http://www.trks2day.com/wedday.html

I suggest reading Modern Pace handicapping,Then Pace makes the Race.
if you like creating numbers, or Jim Bradshaw for matching up horses.
These books will answer most of your questions you asked.

The advantage you can create for yourself can be significant.in having
your own unique numbers,is this what your shooting for.do you have a lot of time on your hands.Are you good with spread sheets and computer code.
very time consuming.most people here use data files and software.
to do the heavy work of the calculations.my best guess is to find a software
program and learn it a little at a time and model the readouts for patterns

Best of luck Pete

Firstly thanks mr. Pete for your reply
but at the track where i play i do not have drf bris or any other service we play on final times and little bit f tracks majority go with jockeys so i only have one thing in my hat thats final time now i can arrange for all data but need to know if method can work here too for that only i need to know afforsaid matters

Getting those books here in india is next to impossible if anyone of you could help

My english is really very very bad so please excuse me for that

Regards

[Peteman]

Hi My Friend

I did not know your where in India,If you had the fractional times and knew the
distance in each segment, it should work.try modern pace handicapping by Tom
Brohammer for how to make calculations.Do you have an ebay or an amazon .com
to purchase online or something similar there.it might be worth the time to try it.
Best of luck. Pete

[ISPHI]

Thanks once again

i appreciate your helping nature

So silly of me i dint remember amazon.com
I shall definately try that
the problem here is the track along with trainer plays very dirty role here
I am sorry to say this but here horses are often hooked and not allowed to run on merits ( why this happens is that some horses are unable to compete at certain levels so to bring them down and reduce handicap they do so - one can deal with even these factors)
I surely will arrange for fractions and beaten lengths data for each horses atleast for the previous 10 to 12 runs
i will then try to see each horses individually fraction by fraction and then select some % of horses to assess track bias
i also will try to take each card of race select true contenders and average them to arrive at the track bias and early late speed of tracks also sprint to route and route to sprint adjustment.
This is my road map am i in right track??

Regards

I also seek bill v. And richie and ted carven and barb and many more of members advice

[ISPHI]

By track plays dirty role i mean its too fast on a paricular day and too slow on other and unless i adjust for it i am not gonna get appropriate results

Also if you can brief me about how many ways to work it out i ll be greatful to you

I am energy fan i like ep lp tt rankng etc..
i may ask more and more clarifications as i am zero here

[Peteman]

Hi Jim,

Your variation of track speed should not be a problem for you.
Mind you that I know nothing of your type of racing.
You average 20 plus races for 4 year old at a class level.For a track you play.
at a distance say 6 fur here.111.1 and you have a rough par time for that
track and distance say 111.1 then you compare that time to today's time.
so you have 3 races today at that distance say they are 110.2,110.9,110.4
average the 3 races you get 110.5 so your track is playing fast .6 tenths
so when a horse runs again from that day you adjust his time adding
.6 tenths to his final time to adjust for track speed.That's a rough outline
condensed for time.There are other ways to do this that are different.
Brohammer's book will answer your questions and give you Ideas.

Have a good one