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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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03-11-2016, 11:04 AM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Phase 1 TPR lessons
The best thing to do is try to get a copy of the Pace Makes The Race
The original version might be hard to find. But the second edition works too. Last edited by Bill V.; 03-11-2016 at 11:37 AM. |
03-11-2016, 11:07 AM | #2 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Lesson 1
The EPR, Who has the best EPR in this race ?
Its horse #3 Lost bus |
03-11-2016, 03:11 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Posts: 4,151
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Bill,
Good start to thread Jeff |
03-11-2016, 03:37 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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This # 4 is a NTL and will be all out. This a tough race overall and the M/L on the # 3 will probably drop.
Mitch44 |
03-12-2016, 10:11 AM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: CAMBRIDGE,MA
Posts: 1,035
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Bill, great to have you teaching again!
Thanks, Mike |
03-14-2016, 08:48 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 120
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Bill -
The book is still available from Dick Schmidt. I bought sometime in the last year through Amazon and had to laugh when I got a package in the mail directly from Dick with the book, which he autographed. I have evolved slowly into a TPR player from Synergism over the past 18 months with good results and intend to keep it that way. Take it easy! Chuck |
03-15-2016, 04:18 PM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2013
Posts: 318
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One question?
I have always wondered what to do about horse who in their last start had: 1. serious commented trouble making the race useless for evaluation purposes, 2. had one or two races off a layoff particularly one race off up to 120 days or so with good works before and after or 2 races off a substantial layoff generally over 200 days or 3. raced on the wrong surface or at the opposite distance structure?
Any substitute race will be older and not necessarily meet the requirement of the "Last Line". |
03-15-2016, 05:48 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 120
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Hi Mark -
I can suggest you listen to the Brohamer Lecture Series, which is posted here on Pace and Cap. Go to the "Audio Collection" then find the Brohamer Tape Lectures. If you pore over these seminars he will answer these questions and many more, probably better than anyone else. They have helped me a great deal! Chuck |
03-16-2016, 12:12 AM | #9 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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last line
Hi Mark and Chuck
The horse should and usually does show something about its current form from the last line. The nice thing about just looking at the 3 numbers, and the patterns of the horse, is you can see when the last line might fool the public. Also we can trip handicap, Here is horse 7 from today's last race a MVR Here are the last lines for all the horses in the race. Off the last line the top 5 are 5 2 11 7 1 (step 1 ) Now jumping right out at me is the late energy of line 1 or ,why did it use less energy early ? The answer is a trouble trip. It looks like the horse was swung wide . and then ran well to finish with its best ever LPR . If we forgive this line and move to line 2, I can forgive it because of wrong surface (poly) So now I go to line 3 . I already know horse 7 rates well off a trouble line so I am happy to see it rate better off a good line. The 7 wins at a nice price. |
03-16-2016, 09:35 AM | #10 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Largo Fl.
Posts: 2,295
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Sorry
Bill totally disagree with your logic here. first of all running wide is not a troubled trip. If you look at the horses last 10 pp's he has run wide in 4 of them. So IMO opinion thats not an excuse to go to the next line. Now if the hors got hammered by another horse and was forced wide you then have an excuse to go to the next line.
Bob |
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