What really matters?

[Lt1]

Bill thanks for posting the FU #81 article. Folks should also watch the Docs 1998 video seminar where he goes to the use of compounded ratings and basically 1 on 1 training. The 3 vids are available here on the site in the video sections
Tim

[Bill V.]

Yes indeed Doc`s 3 part videos are great, and mirror his most recent instructions
/ guidelines . This is how he wanted his clients to use his programs from about 1996 till his passing
I have just recently began to watch the videos again, I know them by heart . I must have watched those videos over 50 times , starting with the 3 vcr tapes .
and another 10 or so times right from the Sartin library here at Pace and Cap .
Good Skill
Bill

[Lt1]

Bill, like you, I have watch these videos numerous times. In fact I purchased them when they were first being sold by the Doc. In fact I wrote to Doc after viewing them He published that letter in the follow up. They completely changed my game. I believe that newcomers and those who are struggling should make every effort to watch them. You will hear directly from the guru and not be confused by conflicting info they may see no matter how well meant those posts are. Each of us form our own opinions differently on the info we hear. These vids are straight forward. The viewer can form their own opinion. The follow up containing my letter and report is #70 page 35.
Tim

[shoeless]

FTL

Thanks

[mowens33]

Thanks Gentlemen!

Mike

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

Here is a breakdown of which paceline of the last 3 my winners came from.
My sample is 542 races using the default settings and auto selecting the
best of the last 3 perceptor from RDSS2.1

I made absolutely zero changes to any paceline. These figures are
using RDSS in full automatic,

These 542 races are all distances, surfaces
track condition, and class. The lines selected can only be line 1,2 or 3
when using the auto selector.

I used races from from Aqueduct, Belmont, Churchill, Delaware, Del Mar Including the BC, FingerLakes, Golden Gate, Keeneland, Laurel, Medowlands
Mohegan Valley, Mountaineer, Portland Meadows, Parx, Turf Paradise,
Thistle Downs, Retimaand Woodbine.
Everything race type from bottom of the barrel Maiden Claimers
to the Breeders Cup classic.

My findings are in the spreadsheet attached

The #2 paceline produced a incredible average payoff of over $19.00

Line 1 had the most winners (257 ) and a average of $11.00

Line 3 had the fewest winners and the lowest average of $7.60

Attachment 44945

spreadsheet sample screen shot

Attachment 44944

Bill, let me see if I have this right.
From your 542 races, almost 50% of the winners came off the last line.
From your 542 races, almost 80% of the winners came off of lines 1 or 2.
From your 542 races, approximately 20% of the winners came off of line 3.

In addition to line 3 generating the fewest winners (by far), it also generated the lowest (by far) average mutual.

You used the RDSS program on full automatic, so you did not pick any of these pacelines yourself.

On that basis, is there a reason you would want to go past line 2?

[Bill V.]

Bill, let me see if I have this right.
From your 542 races, almost 50% of the winners came off the last line.
From your 542 races, almost 80% of the winners came off of lines 1 or 2.
From your 542 races, approximately 20% of the winners came off of line 3.

In addition to line 3 generating the fewest winners (by far), it also generated the lowest (by far) average mutual.

You used the RDSS program on full automatic, so you did not pick any of these pacelines yourself.

On that basis, is there a reason you would want to go past line 2?

Hello FTL
The last line is being chosen for all horse far more than line 2 and line 3.
Since 10/29/17 I have been modeling the pace line for every horse in the race (its nice to have the time and the tools)

Since 10/29/17 till the present I have captured 1327 pace lines that RDSS2.1 as auto selected using the Best of last 3 preceptor comparable

In 1327 lines
Line 1 was selected 630 times
Line 2 was selected 339 times
Line 3 was selected 298 times

Since line 1 and line 2 are out performing line 3 so much in wins and average
mutual . I think its showing that in races were the best preceptor at a comparable distance surface is after 2 excused races happens very infrequently

I have not changed any of these 1327 pace lines I do look over the lines. I have noticed many times neither line 1 or 2 looks very good, These lines do not fit your guidelines.
However RDSS2.1 is selecting either line 1 2 or 3 by a set of parameters.
Ted explained them to me this past weekend,
My memory unfortunatly is not good these days but his parameters made a lot of sense as he explained them.
So I am very confident in the auto paceline tool.

Best to you
Bill

[Psychotic Parakeet]

I am astonished with the depth of help written here. If anything, it gives me many options of what to really look for and as starting points. This is just amazing work, and I appreciate every single one of you taking your time to respond.

-Laura

[Bill V.]

This horse just won race 5 at Penn National She paid $15.00
RDSS2.1 selected line 3. Line 1 is a win line against Alowance horses
but is a nice nearly wire to wire win at 5.5 furlongs from Parx She is a 3 year old filly.
Line 3 is a MS win for a 30000 purse and at the same distance and track as today race, Both the preceptor and speed rating are the best of last 3
and the line was only 69 days ago

[For The Lead]

Originally Posted by Bill V.

This horse just won race 5 at Penn National She paid $15.00
RDSS2.1 selected line 3. Line 1 is a win line against Alowance horses
but is a nice nearly wire to wire win at 5.5 furlongs from Parx She is a 3 year old filly.
Line 3 is a MS win for a 30000 purse and at the same distance and track as today race, Both the preceptor and speed rating are the best of last 3
and the line was only 69 days ago

Attachment 44950

Good example, Bill.

You know I would have used the last line.