Dmr 0810 - Pace and Cap

Phase III Lives · 08-09-2005, 09:21 PM

I was looking at the DMR card using SPEC and wanted to share some findings...
I will start with race 6, because it's fresh in my head and it's a pretty cool race.
Well going thru th PL i noticed red after red after red ...
Of the 12 entries there are up to 9 Early types ...
I will try to include some screenshots that show some interesting things. I will first show all the contenders (imo) and also 1 and 7 which are E horses but non contenders in my book.

First I wanted to show all the pace lines and how close most of them like to be. I know this is 5.5 but I think 7,8,or 9 E's will have an impact on the E's. 12 is also an E but hasn't raced in too long for my liking.

Next I show the MU w/Bl's
from this I can almost eliminate 1,2,maybe 3(layoff and TUP), 4 wasn't a contender, 6,7(non C), maybe 8 - leads at F1 but bad TT,
9 (nonC), not 10 yet, 11, and 12 has not raced in 2 years.

The only Horses that have won off any pace are the 3,9,10,11.
The only real off pace horses are 3,5,9.
I show the E/L chart to look for who is most late. Just getting and idea(3,10,8)
Then from the perceptor sheet - best late are 3,10,8.
From perceptor II F3: 3-10-8
Let me continue this in the next post.

Phase III Lives · 08-09-2005, 09:33 PM

okay -

let me make my cuts and show the result....

I am really struggling separating the 3-10-8...
The 3 is from TUP which it appears from what I'm seeing have a hard time at the So Ca Tracks... and he is coming off a layoff.
The 8 has shown no desire to win from off pace ...
The only negative about the 10 is will he come from more than 1.7 that he has won at before.

What really sealed the deal for me was the Perceptor II or if VAL3 has a fractional readout - that.
Of the top 5, 3 is 2 in 2f and 1 in 3f
10 is 3 in 2f and 2 in 3f
8 is 5 in f2 and 3 in 3f and is more E than the other 2
My picks are 3-10

Phase III Lives · 08-09-2005, 09:46 PM

my other 2 or 3 picks follow

Race 1 Another TUP horse but I haven't got that much of a history with this - so I pick 4 -1 ... i will include my charts
I looked at several readouts, P1/P2 PLS and Supp but the E/L chart said that I should prefer 1,2,4.

In race 2 - I wouldnt bet but I had to put those with lines in and 2 appears capable of a W-W or at least in Energy Expenditure . but probably the favorite so - no bet. Too many questions anyway. Chart included

In race 5 - I know nothing about DMR turf - so I shouldnt bet this one, but WTH .

looking at all the factors ... 7-6 appear everywhere and 3/8 factor into this I think.

7-6 to win and even tho I suck at Place horse ... the odds might warrent a 7-6-3-8 box.

I may look at the last 2 but not tonight

so 1: 4-1 $4
2/3/4 pass even tho I think 2 wins the 2nd
5:7-6 to win exacta box - 7-6-3-8 $28 this after I said I know nothing about DMR turf go figure

6: 3-10 lets do $6 each: $12

$44

Phase III Lives · 08-09-2005, 11:34 PM

i had to go get Madden 2006 ... my son told me it was in ... but i want to adjust my bets to equalize the 3 races ... so each win bet in the non exacta race will be $14 per horse or $28 per race...

Phase III Lives · 08-10-2005, 02:56 PM

R#7 DMR 8/10

the 3 appears to be the "class" of the field, but although he will probably do ok and could win, is beatable by the 8 if the race runs early and the 9 if it runs late.
picks 8-9-3-5 [3 is top on BL/BL]

$14 each on 8/9
---------------
r#8
Not sure if I trust these maidens but
7-9 show up early
7-9 CPR
7-9 TT
7-3-9 PERCEPTOR 1 7-9-3 P II
PLS:7-9-3/5 SUPP:7-5-9

THOSE THAT QUALIFY VIA 2CBL :9-7-2 AND 3 IS JUST OUTSIDE

PICKS 7/9 @ $14 EACH

LET'S SEE ...

Phase III Lives · 08-10-2005, 06:04 PM

just realized that I had the wrong number in race 2 (which I wouldn't bet anyway) ... Please sir ... I meant the 3 horse ... (oh bee)...
there were several FTS's anyway...

well race 1 tells me that the later TuP horse may have trouble ... but still sticking with what I said... At least the 1 came thru @ 4-1. Bet 28 get 72.80

Phase III Lives · 08-10-2005, 07:34 PM

#3 pays 22.80
I lose the win bet but get the 131.20 exacta

Phase III Lives · 08-10-2005, 07:36 PM

i just saw where gambler(6) was DQ'd... not sure if from 1st or 2nd

Phase III Lives · 08-10-2005, 08:05 PM

OK BL/BL outsmarted me ... lose $28 in the 6th - will be interesting to see the chart...
Making mental note (with hammer) ... think twice about TuP at DMR

08-09-2005, 09:21 PM	#1
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	Dmr 0810 I was looking at the DMR card using SPEC and wanted to share some findings... I will start with race 6, because it's fresh in my head and it's a pretty cool race. Well going thru th PL i noticed red after red after red ... Of the 12 entries there are up to 9 Early types ... I will try to include some screenshots that show some interesting things. I will first show all the contenders (imo) and also 1 and 7 which are E horses but non contenders in my book. First I wanted to show all the pace lines and how close most of them like to be. I know this is 5.5 but I think 7,8,or 9 E's will have an impact on the E's. 12 is also an E but hasn't raced in too long for my liking. Next I show the MU w/Bl's from this I can almost eliminate 1,2,maybe 3(layoff and TUP), 4 wasn't a contender, 6,7(non C), maybe 8 - leads at F1 but bad TT, 9 (nonC), not 10 yet, 11, and 12 has not raced in 2 years. The only Horses that have won off any pace are the 3,9,10,11. The only real off pace horses are 3,5,9. I show the E/L chart to look for who is most late. Just getting and idea(3,10,8) Then from the perceptor sheet - best late are 3,10,8. From perceptor II F3: 3-10-8 Let me continue this in the next post.

08-09-2005, 09:33 PM	#2
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	okay - let me make my cuts and show the result.... I am really struggling separating the 3-10-8... The 3 is from TUP which it appears from what I'm seeing have a hard time at the So Ca Tracks... and he is coming off a layoff. The 8 has shown no desire to win from off pace ... The only negative about the 10 is will he come from more than 1.7 that he has won at before. What really sealed the deal for me was the Perceptor II or if VAL3 has a fractional readout - that. Of the top 5, 3 is 2 in 2f and 1 in 3f 10 is 3 in 2f and 2 in 3f 8 is 5 in f2 and 3 in 3f and is more E than the other 2 My picks are 3-10

08-09-2005, 09:46 PM	#3
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	my other 2 or 3 picks follow Race 1 Another TUP horse but I haven't got that much of a history with this - so I pick 4 -1 ... i will include my charts I looked at several readouts, P1/P2 PLS and Supp but the E/L chart said that I should prefer 1,2,4. In race 2 - I wouldnt bet but I had to put those with lines in and 2 appears capable of a W-W or at least in Energy Expenditure . but probably the favorite so - no bet. Too many questions anyway. Chart included In race 5 - I know nothing about DMR turf - so I shouldnt bet this one, but WTH . looking at all the factors ... 7-6 appear everywhere and 3/8 factor into this I think. 7-6 to win and even tho I suck at Place horse ... the odds might warrent a 7-6-3-8 box. I may look at the last 2 but not tonight so 1: 4-1 $4 2/3/4 pass even tho I think 2 wins the 2nd 5:7-6 to win exacta box - 7-6-3-8 $28 this after I said I know nothing about DMR turf go figure 6: 3-10 lets do $6 each: $12 $44

08-09-2005, 11:34 PM	#4
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	i had to go get Madden 2006 ... my son told me it was in ... but i want to adjust my bets to equalize the 3 races ... so each win bet in the non exacta race will be $14 per horse or $28 per race...

08-10-2005, 02:56 PM	#5
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	R#7 DMR 8/10 the 3 appears to be the "class" of the field, but although he will probably do ok and could win, is beatable by the 8 if the race runs early and the 9 if it runs late. picks 8-9-3-5 [3 is top on BL/BL] $14 each on 8/9 --------------- r#8 Not sure if I trust these maidens but 7-9 show up early 7-9 CPR 7-9 TT 7-3-9 PERCEPTOR 1 7-9-3 P II PLS:7-9-3/5 SUPP:7-5-9 THOSE THAT QUALIFY VIA 2CBL :9-7-2 AND 3 IS JUST OUTSIDE PICKS 7/9 @ $14 EACH LET'S SEE ...

08-10-2005, 06:04 PM	#6
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	just realized that I had the wrong number in race 2 (which I wouldn't bet anyway) ... Please sir ... I meant the 3 horse ... (oh bee)... there were several FTS's anyway... well race 1 tells me that the later TuP horse may have trouble ... but still sticking with what I said... At least the 1 came thru @ 4-1. Bet 28 get 72.80

08-10-2005, 07:34 PM	#7
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	Richies Tier III bomb strikes again #3 pays 22.80 I lose the win bet but get the 131.20 exacta

08-10-2005, 07:36 PM	#8
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	i just saw where gambler(6) was DQ'd... not sure if from 1st or 2nd

08-10-2005, 08:05 PM	#9
Phase III Lives Grade 2 Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: Southern Md Posts: 94	OK BL/BL outsmarted me ... lose $28 in the 6th - will be interesting to see the chart... Making mental note (with hammer) ... think twice about TuP at DMR