The bigger hurdle, the one not metioned

[Tim Y]

I have a great friend from Hastings race course, a mathematician by trade, who writes a tip sheet there call the Odds Professor. It is his contention, and the NOW ENLIGHTENED author here since making his acquaintance, that this game is TAUGHT completely BACKWARDS. One should have a very good grasp on gambling (the practical expression of what we do as handicappers) long before the other side of the equation is approached

Fans, in general, spend FAR too much time splitting hairs over this miniscule handicapping factor or the other, and then almost forget to evaluate the markets offered to them race to race and the most efficient way to capitalize on mismatches.

There are NO magic formulas out there to best go after the $$$$$ as each course has peculiarities to the next as WE ALL KNOW (but few admit it) that our particular capping skills do not have universal success.

I experiment, from time to time, with a new course to see how my approach predicts the outcomes. Hit and miss, but I have found some really nice gems in the bull ring category. THEN from that group (where you know your style works) one has to jettison the tracks that do not give ROI (like Fair Grounds main course or Sam Houston) worth following them long term due to short field size or constantly low mutuels.

One must realize that there is no basic difference between betting a fight or a baseball game on the odds side of the equation, just like the parimutuel game. Understanding probabilities predicted to probabilities offered per race and them acting on it accordingly is the lost art to this game. Even knowing what percentage of the pool is outstanding (since that is what you paid with) is something I only recently added to the wager creation side of the coin.

It kind of goes back to the old (but now debunked idea) of left brain/right brain evaluations. The capping side requires innovation where the betting side should be ruled more like an accountant.

As it stands for the majority of players I run int, it is much akin to the way tennis players develop their forearms: UNBALANCED. Like muscles, we need to have both sides of the coin in shape and spend too much time splitting hairs on the handicapping side.

[mowens33]

Tim, Excellent! I couldn't agree with more!! Unfortunately for me choosing the correct bet as it pertains to the race at hand is my Achilles heal.

I was hoping you could elaborate on the following?

Understanding probabilities predicted to probabilities offered per race and them acting on it accordingly is the lost art to this game. Even knowing what percentage of the pool is outstanding (since that is what you paid with) is something I only recently added to the wager creation side of the coin.

Thanks, Mike

[Tim Y]

Each time we bet, our monies contribute to the pool that will, if our horse wins, be divided amongst all the people who had winning bets on the winner. The LOWER the odds (or our higher choice of the probability of its being the winner) the MORE our money is represented in the overall pool.

Theoretically the total monies SHOULD equal 100%, but the track takes its money out BEFORE the contest (their fee for holding the contest providing the place to run it and make sure that it is run fairly), but in reality it comes out around 122-125%. If you were to add up the related probabilities from all the odds of each race: (i.e. a 3/1 horse represents, 1/3+1 probability by just flipping the odds to the denominator and add one, or 0.25) that total would be in that range of 1.25.

In days of old when bookmakers ruled the betting game, anyone making a book had to carefully distribute the odds in a contest so as THEY, the bookie, could be ahead at the end of it, so booking points were created.

HERE is a good resource on booking points
https://aqha.com/racing/pages/racing...-morning-line/

The understanding of just how much of the pool will have to be PAID back to those ticket holders is thus easily reflected in knowing how to adapt booking points to each pool and the author here gives a practical approach at doing that. By relating then, the percentage of the pool YOUR bet represents to the total booking points of a race gives you some idea of the potential return. This is particularly useful if you were to dutch a bet. If you total points represent in the area of 75% of the total points, there will be hardly enough to cover take out.

ONE of the most difficult things to overcome nowadays are the dramatic LATE moves in odds. I know people complain about their 9/5 becoming even money about the time a route hits the backstretch, but if you realized what simulcasts monies had to go through (they have to be coded at the source of the bet, go through one of 5 national betting hubs and then sent to the origin track and decoded ), you would appreciate WHY this delay takes place.

It takes a bit of practice, but you can collect the last few clicks of the odds board on the way to final odds and you will get a feel for which direction the odds are going and decide to not bet if your choice is much the same as the crowds. (HINT I have been doing this for the past several years and it is amazing how the 3rnd and 4th horse go STRAIGHT UP). These are markets just like the stock exchange and the futures or real estate markets. Think what you would do if a house you were ready to put down 375K for was valued by the crowd at 376K...I know I would wait and see a 375K priced house valued at 425K before I would lay out the cash. When you are studying that market out on the board, think of it in those terms

[mowens33]

Tim, thanks form your detailed explanation.The stock market analogy was perfect and the point system is a great way to balance you odds assessment.

With value being the key,your post drives home the point that being a good handicapper does not guarantee you can make money consistently at this game.

You have also made it clear to me that I need to become a better accountant!

Thanks for your odds observations, its something I will be working on.

Mike

[mowens33]

Tim, I down loaded an articular some time back that you may be interested in.

Mike

[Tim Y]

Thanks as it mirrored the factors almost exactly from a seminare Woodbine associates gave to the annual seminar of the University of Arizona Racetrack Management Yearly seminar.

Here are the archives as I have to find that one specifically.

https://ua-rtip.org/symposium/transc...-presentations

[Tim Y]

think it was the one DECLINING FIELD SIZE that I was referring to

[mowens33]

Tim, thanks for the presentations

[Tim Y]

INDEPENDENT of the handicapping muscles.

Find Marc Cramer's THE ODDS ARE ON YOUR SIDE

https://www.amazon.ca/Odds-Your-Side.../dp/096141684X


THAT is a ridiculous price for a book I purchased over 20 years ago for around $30.00 so I am sure you could find it for less, maybe at the Gambler's Book Club in Las Vegas.

It is a good place to start in re-programming ones approach to setting aside a PLAN on the wagering side of the equation. The thing I liked about it is that it is an approach idea with the specifics of how to implement it (factors involved) being up to the players to ultimately decide.

IT is a great place to start, to practice the idea and then adapt it to the realities of your situation.

Marc Cramer's ideas are unique and productive...Quite an iconoclast

I have found his ideas very profitable...

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

INDEPENDENT of the handicapping muscles.

Find Marc Cramer's THE ODDS ARE ON YOUR SIDE

https://www.amazon.ca/Odds-Your-Side.../dp/096141684X

I believe this book is an update of that one and a lot cheaper.

https://www.amazon.com/Value-Handica...ds=mark+cramer