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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 01-12-2018, 08:28 PM   #1
Neil S.
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Phase I Gets an Amazing Result

I have been a user of Phase I for most of the years I've been a Sartin disciple and over the last two years have used the line selection guidelines posted by For The Lead. In my results I have noticed that the bulk of the winners I've gotten in the #1 and #2 slots have been mostly low priced runners, however occasionally a beautiful long shot does come. I have been very patient targeting horses to win in either the #1 or #2 slots with morning line odds of 4-1 or higher. If both the #1 and #2 horses are 4-1 or higher I bet both to win and do a simple 2 dollar exacta box. It has been a bit of a slow start to the year, but my patience was rewarded today in the 8th race of the opening day card at Oaklawn when I registered a remarkable score to say the least. Here are my lines and my rationale:

#1 Far Right 15-1 - No line. Horse ran a 0 race in a similar spot last out at FG
#2 Futile 12-1. - Line 2. Last race was at 1 1/4 miles which is more than a furlong further than todays distance. Chose a line at today's distance which is a winning effort at Churchill.
#3 Sightforsoreeyes. 30-1- No line based upon FTL's guidelines
#4 Dan the Go to Man 12-1 - Line 1 a wire to wire win in a similar spot at RP
#5 Stcksstatelydude 5-1- Line 1 which is a (+) line in a similar spot at FG
#6 Goats Town 20-1. Out
#7 Royal Squeez 20-1. Out
#8 Shotgun Kowboy 6-1- Line1. Solid + race effort against similar
#9 Dazzling Gem 7-2 Line 1. Same race as #8
#10 Sonneteer 12-1 Line 1 which was a solid effort at LA. Usually don't trust LA lines but noticed some solid efforts last year at OP.
#11 Untrapped 3-1- Line 1 which was a solid effort in the Zia Park Derby
#12 Cheif Know it All 10-1- Line 1 same race as #11

Here are the TPR's for the horses getting a line and the top 4 contenders:

#2. 172.5 2
#4. 169.5
#5. 157.5
#8. 169.5
#9. 169.5
#10 177 1
#11. 171 3
#12. 170 4

Both of my top two contenders were clearly above 4-1 so I made 3 dollar win bets on both and boxed them in the exacta for 2 dollars. Futile stalked the early pace and took the lead turning for home while Sonneteer lagged behind but made a strong run on the outside to move into contention. It looked as if Futile would draw off but he started to weaken and along came Sonneteer on the outside to get up in time. Fuitile was able to hold off Far Right to hold the place. With both my win bets at 29-1 and 25-1 respectively I was already thrilled with the result but when the exacta popped at $1123.20 I was in Sartin Heaven to say the least!!! An amazing return for a 10 dollar wager netted a healthy profit of $1205.60.
As you can clearly see there was very little magic in my line selection but if one remains patient and disciplined in their line selection and wagering approach amazing things can truly happen.
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Old 01-12-2018, 09:07 PM   #2
mick
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That was a great play, Neil. (I had #2 Futile under and over with the two favorites but I didn't have #10.) Congratulations! That's a fine score.
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Old 01-12-2018, 09:39 PM   #3
Jeebs
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Congrats Neil!
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Old 01-12-2018, 11:21 PM   #4
Mitch44
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A really nice one and big congrats.
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Old 01-12-2018, 11:27 PM   #5
The Pook
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Huge Neil! Congratulations!

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Old 01-13-2018, 06:43 AM   #6
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What a great score Neil. Congrats.
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Old 01-13-2018, 08:58 AM   #7
raceman5
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Very

Nice Neil!!!!!!


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Old 01-13-2018, 09:20 AM   #8
Bill V.
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wonderful

hi Neil

That is fantastic !
You can't go wrong with Phase 1 and solid line selections based on FTL's guidelines
Happy News for the the new year

Bill
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Old 01-13-2018, 10:35 AM   #9
Neil S.
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Hope all is well with you Bill and you continue to get stronger.
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Old 01-13-2018, 11:41 AM   #10
Ted Craven
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Congratulations Neil - nice way to start OP, and hopefully a great run this year!

I opened that race in RDSS using your paceline selections and non-contender throwouts, and the default settings got different Top 4 TPR ranks (2-11-12-10) compared to your TPR program (because of DTV and ITV adjustments).

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However, when I shut off the DTV and ITV adjustments, they popped up on top (though the rest of RDSS' unadjusted TPR rankings were not in the same order as yours).

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Again - well done! FTL's line selection and contender guidelines do work very well.

Ted
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