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Old 07-05-2020, 10:35 AM   #11
barryt
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Just for the record
WO 2020 Favs 37% avg odds 7-1
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Old 07-05-2020, 10:52 AM   #12
Mitch44
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Here you go barryt:

This is dated 29 June20 and is from Bris, besides that 35% favs there are many others that are low paying besides the favorite. You can look at the averages for Exotics and it reinforces rdiam whole point of his post and approach. Happy hunting. I would say the sweet spots here are the EX, DD,P3 & P4 after that the degree of difficulty greatly increases. Sure beats the low lying fruit of favorites and low priced horses. Also the EX is a good bet, with insight but is more difficult than the other Exotics in many cases.



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WOODBINE AT A GLANCE
Avg. Winning Odds: 5.31 – 1
Favorite Win%: 35%, Favorite Itm%: 67%
EXOTICSPAYOFF
Exacta109.07
Daily Double82.18
Trifecta720.37
Pick 3548.81
Superfecta6,340.82
Pick 67,552.30
Pick 45,149.99
Pick 535,804.05
Pick 6 Jackpot24,394.80
Super High Five Jackpot77,118.81



Last edited by Mitch44; 07-05-2020 at 11:05 AM.
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Old 07-05-2020, 06:24 PM   #13
ScottB
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I have to totally disagree with Richard and agree with MikeB. MikeB and I are in the same boat. I am a spot player who bets only win (exacta occasionally) and I cash enough tickets to stay in the black.

I think most guy's who use computer programs to handicap and select their bets lose out on the human factor that is critical in making selections.

My guru Ray Taulbot not only taught pace but he taught angles to teach how trainers race their horses into form and top physical condition to get ready for a winning effort. Horses in top physical condition have an edge. A valuable tool in picking winners.

Just this past Tuesday (7/1) I was looking at the 10th race at Gulfstream Park and I was considering a horse #10 Uncle Curly as one of my contenders. Uncle Curly ran a nice race on (6/14) and was coming back in 17 days with a 3F breeze workout.

When you saw Uncle Curly in the post parade and on the track it was obvious he was fit and ready to run a big race. I wound up with a 26.80 winner for my observations.

If you look for the right spots you can get good prices if you have the patience to wait for them. I have that patience.
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Old 07-05-2020, 07:07 PM   #14
mick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdiam View Post
... if you are going to bet a horse 7-2 or lower, make sure you can identify at least one other horse with 20% of the win pool (i.e., going off 3-1 or lower) that has little or no chance to win today's race. If you can do this, and your handicapping is superior to that of the rebate syndicates, you can swim in the pool and create +EV. Otherwise, stay away.
I am always looking for a vulnerable favorite. When you find one, the money bet on it will cover the track take and as Dave Schwartz says, "You can almost throw darts and break even."

I have a list of things in my head that I'm constantly looking for and you probably do too. Here are a few examples.

A returning winner, especially a returning maiden winner - they just don't win often when they come back. A new top speed figure with an older horse or better yet, paired top speed figures with an older horse - expect a regression. A closer in a sprint with little speed - there's nothing to run into. An early in a longer race, e.g. 7f or 9f, with a lot of early speed - there's more distance for that early speed to fail. An early breaking from an outside post in a route - the jockey will have to use the horse to gain a favorable position near the rail and they often fade in the last furlong. And here's one that many don't think about - an early presser or presser breaking from post 1 with speed outside. The jockey will have to send to put the horse where he wants to be, i.e. close to the pace. Otherwise he'll be smothered and covered up off the pace.

I think of them as "negative" angles and they help me find the "play against" favorites. Once I find one, I know I'm betting into a bigger win pool.
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Old 07-05-2020, 07:20 PM   #15
ScottB
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As a spot player I like to bet 3-1 or bettor and I look for those spots. I usually don't bet against horses going off at odds-on.

If I like a horse say at 4-1, I don't worry about the odds of others horses because I know if I catch the winner I got a 10 horse.

I will take lower odds if I see Johnny V getting legged up on a Todd Pletcher horse that looks solid or a horse like Maximum Security going off at 6/5. Sometimes you have to take what they give you.

You make a lot of good points but betting every race on a card is putting yourself up against it.
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Old 07-05-2020, 07:25 PM   #16
ScottB
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I went to Monmouth one time with a few guy's and I had 2 horses I liked from my handicapping work the night before.

One horse scratched and the other horse didn't look good at race time. I passed any betting for the day. I didn't like anything else.

The guy's I was with couldn't believe that I would go to the track and not make a play. Some days that is the way it is for spot players.
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Old 07-05-2020, 10:32 PM   #17
ignacio todoberto bernal
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"THERE ARE NO RULES" RIGHT ON MITCH 44 !!!!

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Old 07-06-2020, 08:49 AM   #18
rdiam
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I am amused by some of the responses from those who "disagree" with my premise and support their argument by indicating their "success" at win betting using a selective, spot play approach.

If these same posters would re-read my original post, they would see that the last sentence reads "Be more selective in choosing races where you bet to win, and use horizontals and verticals to "fish" in larger fields where the cheaters are rebate syndicates don't swim." So unless those who profess to "disagree" did not read the entire post, they seem to be trying to make a point that does not need to be made. Yes, roughly 40% of races are won by a horse OTHER than the top 2 betting choices. Find those races and the winner of those races, and there is +EV to be had. I even provided guidelines to finding those races.

So my conclusion is either those who disagree had a pre-conceived notion and did not read the entire post, or that some just like to argue for argument's sake.

Richard
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Old 07-06-2020, 09:45 AM   #19
Mitch44
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Right now favorites at PRX are winning 55%.While the public as a whole pound the favorites they are weak and tend to make mistakes in other pools. Such as an EX play. How many look at the EX & DD pools to see the payoffs? They frequently go overboard on the top two choices and accept ridiculous payoffs of $8,12 or 15. If you can't make double your investment one should not bet it. Double allows for loses incurred. Anyone getting a 48% or higher win % with EX's is doing exceptional work. The rate for DD's should be higher.

Even an angle or spot player can make a lot more money from other pools. BTW the DD is a much better bet than an EX. Its much easier to pick winners than the place horse. Many times the place horse gets there by default because legit contenders are out of form or have peaked and go out of form today.

I always try to design a bet to capitalize on my analysis and true contenders. I have made a lot of money off favorites winning by getting a good price horse underneath in an EX or getting a decent price in the DD. These underneath and connecting races can't be just any horse with good odds, that will get you to the poor house, they must be contenders or have a sound basis for using it. I.e. on the improve, hasn't disgraced itself to todays conditions, an unknown factor, vulnerable favorites, a horse that does something for the first time such as stretching out in distance to a route etc.

Profits are there but look at expected value for your investment and stay out of poor return situations. Thanks for the reminder Richard, great post.

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Old 07-06-2020, 12:44 PM   #20
mick
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Quote:
Originally Posted by mick View Post
I am always looking for a vulnerable favorite. When you find one, the money bet on it will cover the track take and as Dave Schwartz says, "You can almost throw darts and break even."

I have a list of things in my head that I'm constantly looking for and you probably do too. Here are a few examples.

A returning winner, especially a returning maiden winner - they just don't win often when they come back. A new top speed figure with an older horse or better yet, paired top speed figures with an older horse - expect a regression. A closer in a sprint with little speed - there's nothing to run into. An early in a longer race, e.g. 7f or 9f, with a lot of early speed - there's more distance for that early speed to fail. An early breaking from an outside post in a route - the jockey will have to use the horse to gain a favorable position near the rail and they often fade in the last furlong. And here's one that many don't think about - an early presser or presser breaking from post 1 with speed outside. The jockey will have to send to put the horse where he wants to be, i.e. close to the pace. Otherwise he'll be smothered and covered up off the pace.

I think of them as "negative" angles and they help me find the "play against" favorites. Once I find one, I know I'm betting into a bigger win pool.
I apologize for quoting my own post but I should have included another "negative" angle. My friend Mitch, who may be the best exacta player I've ever known, is always looking for the "Need to Lead" horse. Why? Because the NTL doesn't win much. Occasionally, they'll get an easy lead and keep going, but most of the time they won't. They'll be pressured and fade late. When they do, they usually fade right out of the exacta.

I once spent an hour on the phone with Mitch handicapping a single race. He was giving me a lesson and it was a good one. The favorite was a NTL and he tossed it completely. When we finished, I bet $4 on a part wheel, something like 1 over 2, 3. It ran 1-2 and I cashed for $103. (I still have the notes of that conversation from early September 2017.)
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