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Old 09-23-2019, 06:38 AM   #1
omar
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2019 3yo crop

After watching this year's rendition of the Pa. Derby, I come to the conclusion that this year's crop of 3yo's is the worst I've seen decades. No amount of handicapping logic can convince me otherwise. Oh you can say the Mr. Money was due for a loss after a string of wins, or Improbable is a bad gate horse or W.O.W. has been played out since June, but the fact is another 16k maiden claimer just won a Gr.1 race. I heard one announcer say that this cements Maximum Security's Ky. Derby performance. If you believe that I have a Bridge I'm looking to sell you! The only cementing I see is fitting this year's crop of 3yos with cement hooves. Does thouest think I'm being to facetious here??? Trust me, if it looks like a duck and quacks like a duck, it's a Duck!
Bring on the older horses.
Omar

Last edited by omar; 09-23-2019 at 06:46 AM.
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Old 09-23-2019, 03:47 PM   #2
The Pook
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I have never met Omar. But with his avatar of The Joker, everytime I read his posts, especially this one, I read them as if Heath Ledgers' Joker from Batman is lecturing me. Complete with the evil grin, sneering, licking of the lips etc. It's hilarious and kind of scary at the same time.

But I am sure Omar is nothing like The Joker.

Pook
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Old 09-24-2019, 09:30 AM   #3
Bill V.
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Hi Pook

To know him is to love him

Neil (Omar) is a great guy and a very long-time friend to Richie P and I.
I still have some of Doc's very early handheld calculator programs on a disk which were a gift from him and his friend Freddy

I also agree with you. No offense Omar but that avitar is so evil.
Nothing like a jolly guy that is Omar

Omar, Thanks for the years of friendship and contributions to Pace and Cap
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Old 09-24-2019, 10:12 AM   #4
ScottB
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I agree with Omar that the 2019 3 year old crop is not top quality but any decent handicapper would have eliminated Mr. Money and Improbable.
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Old 09-24-2019, 10:33 AM   #5
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
I agree with Omar that the 2019 3 year old crop is not top quality but any decent handicapper would have eliminated Mr. Money and Improbable.
Can you give us your reasons why?

Thanks
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Old 09-24-2019, 10:58 AM   #6
ScottB
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I didn’t think the Penn Derby was a playable race except for a flyer bet.

Mr. Money won 4 races in a row which were grade 3 races. Historically grade 3 winners don’t fare well moving up into grade 1 races. Improbable never lived up to his early year expectations and I didn’t like him here.

The winner Math Wizard was not a total surprise. He ran a good race in the Wood Memorial finishing evenly after being forced 5 wide into the stretch. It looked like they were working with him leading up to this race.

I liked War of Will who ran one race at Saratoga since the Belmont Stakes and was working light out for this. I passed the race.
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Old 09-24-2019, 02:03 PM   #7
Bill V.
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Bare

Hi ScottB

Whenever I swing and miss a race as what happened in the Penn Derby, I am curious as to why.
Some times it is my pace line selection. Sometimes I think it is that the race
is over adjusted.Most times it is I don't follow Doc's advice and use the top 5 primary line score and top 5 total energy as a class rating.
Going back and using my lines from the race as I posted in the Race Of Interest I re entered the race, this time using the hand version of Validator.
Validator hand entry only uses the 3 year best and DTV
There is no ITV.

Valm gets the winner math ranked 2nd on Bottom line Betting line
and 2nd on VDC

Code:
                              PH0921-11 9D $100,000

                             THE  V A L I D A T O R



            ╔═╤═════╤═╤═╤═╗   ╔═════╗   ╔═════╗   ╔═════╗   ╔══════╗
            ║#│NAME │L│N│T║   ║TOT-R║   ║TPV-R║   ║TDC-R║   ║V/DC-R║
            ╟─┼─────┼─┼─┼─╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟──────╢
            ║1│Math │3│ │ ║   ║    3║   ║    2║   ║    2║   ║     2║
            ╟─┼─────┼─┼─┼─╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟──────╢
            ║2│Imp  │5│ │ ║   ║    2║   ║    2║   ║    3║   ║     3║
            ╟─┼─────┼─┼─┼─╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟──────╢
            ║3│War  │3│ │ ║   ║    5║   ║    4║   ║    4║   ║     4║
            ╟─┼─────┼─┼─┼─╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟──────╢
            ║4│Spun │2│ │ ║   ║    4║   ║    4║   ║    5║   ║     4║
            ╟─┼─────┼─┼─┼─╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟─────╢   ╟──────╢
            ║5│MrMon│1│ │ ║   ║    1║   ║    1║   ║    1║   ║     1║
            ╚═╧═════╧═╧═╧═╝   ╚═════╝   ╚═════╝   ╚═════╝   ╚══════╝


╔══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╗
║                              1=Continue  P=PRINT                             ║
╚══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════╝

Last edited by Bill V.; 09-24-2019 at 02:05 PM.
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Old 09-24-2019, 03:40 PM   #8
ScottB
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The Validator didn't have War Of Will rated in the top 3. Im surprised.

Paper and pencil handicapping with the Racing Form you would have had him a top 3 contender. I had him as my top pick based on class over Mr. Money.
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:34 PM   #9
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ScottB View Post
The Validator didn't have War Of Will rated in the top 3. Im surprised.

Paper and pencil handicapping with the Racing Form you would have had him a top 3 contender. I had him as my top pick based on class over Mr. Money.
That is the power of Validator/ RDSS2 In the Sartin Methodology class is defined by Total Energy and the Line score top 5 of Primary factors and or
Perceptor

War was rated 4th on total energy and in the actual race ran poorly
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Old 09-24-2019, 04:56 PM   #10
ScottB
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I wouldn’t say War Of Will ran poorly. 3rd within 1 1/4 lengths.

My impression is that they worked him out too much and left his race on the workout track.
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