Is speed still important?

[mick]

From Craig Milkowski's Twitter page:

https://twitter.com/TimeformUSfigs/s...83669291360262

[Mitch44]

Its pretty much a given that American racing is speed oriented because it favors speed. One big reason for that is we run many more shorter races that foreign countries do, they tend to run many more grass races and longer distances races. Many believe that turf and distance equals class. Even within the US many believe this.
Every horse has a best distance and surface and there is class at all levels of distance and surfaces. In US racing a horse that can hold its speed over a distance of ground is deemed to be classier therefore the longer the race the bigger the purse which is why the BC Classic purse is worth multi millions verses the BC Sprint only worth a million or so, this occurs at all levels. A purse for a 10,000 claimer at a route is larger than a sprint etc.( of equal manmade class)The winner of a BC Sprint is still a Grade 1 and is the class of that type race and distance. If they venture out of their specially their doomed. The sprinter will run out of gas going against the classis winner and the classic winner will never catch the sprinter in a sprint race. Of course there are exceptions but their rare, very rare and many that do aren't running against equal or better horses in those wins.

I'm not sure this is a valid study. One reason is that it only considers positions and not beaten lengths at the calls within a study. I believe the beaten lengths would be more accurate. Many races have more that two horses that are close enough (beaten lengths) to get up in time. They remain within striking distance to be effective.

Also doesn't consider the time of those calls. The slower the pace or call times the more crowded it will become. Some call it a pace less race but there are varying degrees.

If betting just the first or second early horses (essentially just speed) the game would have been over years ago and the other ESP types (EP,P,SP,S and L)horses would never win.Being able to hold that speed(by the least deceleration) over the distance of that race is what's important. Many that have that first or second position can do that (don't have high deceleration as compared to the competition) but they pay far smaller mutuals than the other than E type horses, these types are easily detectable and everyone sees it or knows it. Bottom line is speed still is important but highly over rated if not put in context.

Mitch44

[mowens33]

Mitch good stuff!

You’re on the right track when it comes to beaten lengths. Look at the Brisnet PP, then look at the avg beaten lengths (The median would be better) for winners at particular distance you can see that you need to be up close (contending) at the 1st and 2nd calls.

The S and the SP types are slaves to the pace!

Dirt racing in North American favors speed and the horses are breed that way!

Mike

[Mitch44]

Your correct Mike about the US horses are bred predominantly for speed. Excellent point.


Mitch44