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Old 10-01-2011, 06:47 PM   #1
RichieP
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Sunday 10/2 at Parx - TM104 Race Class

Here is tomorrow's 7th from "Parx" going 6f on the dirt. Very best of luck/skill matching em up!!
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Old 10-01-2011, 06:49 PM   #2
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Old 10-02-2011, 08:26 AM   #3
RichieP
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My contenders/ Power Lines based on the #2 NOT being scratched.

IMO there are several runners that can not WIN when facing a 21.4 or 22.0 first fraction. Lets see what shakes and very best of luck/skill to ALL
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Old 10-02-2011, 12:30 PM   #4
SilentRun
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Parx R7 10/2

Hello Richie,

Just looking at the PP for #4 I can see that this horse is strong early.
The other speedballs are the 2 and the 8.

Using the Quirin Speed points: The 2 & 4 both have 7 QSP.
The 8 has 6 QSP. The results of RDSS & NP both favor the 4 & 8 over the 2.

Therefore my 2 top picks are the 4 & 8 for win.

But I would consider the 2-4-8 for an exacta box.

Ernie

Last edited by SilentRun; 10-02-2011 at 12:35 PM.
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Old 10-02-2011, 01:40 PM   #5
Bill Lyster
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Appears to be lots of contention on the front end;

1 P
2 E/P
3 P
4 E CAN RUN 22-45 OFF LINE 3
5 E RAN 22.1-45.5 IN SLOP AND NOTHING FASTER ON DRY TRACKS
6 E/P HAS FOUGHT FOR LEAD AND WON OFF SLIGHTLY SLOWER PACE
7 S
8 P

I dont know much about the PARX class structure, but it looks like NW1X equates to something lower than claiming 25.

1
2 competitive at C25 and in SA 12.5 with two wins
3 Competitive at C22 (or maybe it was C25)
4 beat SA25 then lost 3 this level; could not keep up in OC 16
5 Suspect that Mth NW!X races are tougher; horse has been winning several at SA12.5
6 beat C16 at Mth and Sar
7
8 has one good race this level two back

Using Candy Heart from races 3 and 4, combining those lines little

Pace 22 - 45
1 scratched
2 won on lead in 110.3, does not need open lengths to win; also won from 2nd
3 only races usuable in slop; used line 5, won in 111
4 Fought on this pace in line 3; finished 3rd 2.3 back of 110.9
5 3 w-w wins at slower paces
6 fought for lead and won against slower paces
7 scratched
8 Use race 2, pressing from 4th to lose 109.4 by .50 length

Race is OTE with 4 on lead, leaves 8-3
8 runs 4-3-1
3 runs 5-2-2

8 to win and exacta with 2 and 3

Good luck


Bill
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Old 10-02-2011, 02:27 PM   #6
PeteC
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Getting to this late, but I will go with the 5 and 8...
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Old 10-02-2011, 03:03 PM   #7
SilentRun
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Revision

8-3-4 exacta box , Still BTW 4 & 8

Ernie
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Old 10-02-2011, 08:09 PM   #8
For The Lead
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SilentRun View Post
Hello Richie,

Just looking at the PP for #4 I can see that this horse is strong early.
The other speedballs are the 2 and the 8.

Using the Quirin Speed points: The 2 & 4 both have 7 QSP.
The 8 has 6 QSP. The results of RDSS & NP both favor the 4 & 8 over the 2.

Therefore my 2 top picks are the 4 & 8 for win.

But I would consider the 2-4-8 for an exacta box.

Ernie
I don't use QSP, so I have a question for you.

If I remember correctly QSP are based on running position. Therefore, might this not be better used as "position" points since actual time is not a part of it? Is it not possible that a horse that accumulates the highest number of QSP is not the fastest early horse?
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Old 10-04-2011, 02:07 PM   #9
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by For The Lead View Post
I don't use QSP, so I have a question for you.

If I remember correctly QSP are based on running position. Therefore, might this not be better used as "position" points since actual time is not a part of it? Is it not possible that a horse that accumulates the highest number of QSP is not the fastest early horse?
Excellent point, re QSP! The most likely to take the lead horses (e.g. QSP >= 6) have to be further measured by their velocity and energy expenditure (and current fitness) - AND by who else will make a cheap attempt to force them too fast (aka pace pressure).

I like the caption 'QPP' rather than QSP, and may desigate that traditional readout so in RDSS2.

Ted
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