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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 09-16-2018, 03:38 PM   #1
papajohn3times
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form factors

Hello everyone!
I don't know if this is the place for this inquiry or not??
After having a good day yesterday at Woodbine and Gulfstream(caught a 92.00 horse who was # 2 on bl/bl!)
After reviewing my plays over the last few weeks or so,I find a nagging problem:
HOW CAN YOU TRY TO FIGURE OUT IF A HORSE IS GOING OF FORM?
I know it's not an exact science but does anyone have any suggestion,ideas or statistics that point to a horse not being ready TODAY to run to his/her potential?
Any help would as usual be so much appreciated!
Papa John
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Old 09-16-2018, 05:18 PM   #2
Jeebs
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Originally Posted by papajohn3times View Post
Hello everyone!
I don't know if this is the place for this inquiry or not??
After having a good day yesterday at Woodbine and Gulfstream(caught a 92.00 horse who was # 2 on bl/bl!)
After reviewing my plays over the last few weeks or so,I find a nagging problem:
HOW CAN YOU TRY TO FIGURE OUT IF A HORSE IS GOING OF FORM?
I know it's not an exact science but does anyone have any suggestion,ideas or statistics that point to a horse not being ready TODAY to run to his/her potential?
Any help would as usual be so much appreciated!
Papa John
A sudden change of running style or energy distribution could point to a change in form. If you’re a believer in class maneuvers, a sudden drop in claim price or even a negative trainer change may indicate a horse going off form. Front wraps on or off could signal form.

Bottom line is this: only the connections really and truly know how a horse is feeling, and sometimes, they don’t even know until after the race is over. Physicality handicapping in the paddock/post parade can give you an idea, but it’s a guess at best, and you really have to know what to look for and practice. Horse’s health is not a rateable stat or info in PPs, therefore, determining value is even more important, as horses can cycle good and bad very quickly. As the old saying goes, “if you missed the wedding, don’t bother showing up to the funeral.”
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Old 09-16-2018, 05:37 PM   #3
Bill V.
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Hello Papa John

My own way is to look at a horses races where it runs well,
How can I tell if it has been running well, and will it continue to run well today?

I look at the last line (always look at the last line)
Now is today's distance and class comparable to race were the horse has run its plus races? Is today's race within 21 days of the last race?
If not I would need to see at least a 36 3 furlong work or anything 4 furlongs or longer. ( these are west cost parameters)

Today's race needs to be within 90 days

I use a horse's full TPR lifetime records to rate its last line
If the line can be excused I do not hold a poor TPR rating against it.
If a horse TPRs are getting worse in recent races without excuses,
I look at the horse as going off form.

Bill
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Old 09-16-2018, 05:53 PM   #4
mick
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I posted something on this thread about "paired tops."

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?p=110299

It's a "Sheets" concept but I've found it's rather effective using Ted's Adj SR. Basically, with a cheap claimer that's just run paired lifetime tops, expect a regression.
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