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06-06-2012, 11:50 PM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 206
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looking at the Belmont
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06-07-2012, 06:15 AM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: NYC and San Diego
Posts: 627
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Haven't looked at it yet and don't know what lines you're using, but 3rd F moves like Union Rags typically don't win Belmonts. The other two are interesting as they cross above IHA fairly early. I don't use this part of AOdds much as I'm not a graphical type learner but it's useful.
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06-07-2012, 12:43 PM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 206
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this graph is from the program generated lines, however I compared the derby line and the the preakness line for Ill,The preakness line looks better so Im in a quandry as to which line to use. Street Life appears to be the spoiler.
Best, Doug |
06-07-2012, 04:02 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jan 2010
Posts: 507
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Thx for the graph...I just ran the Belmont on my RDSS program and it came up with on BLBL Dullahan I'll Have Another Union Rags Street Life Paynter in that order...all pace lines that I used were 9.0F except IHA which was 9.5F.. But looking at the Incremental Match UP they came up in the same order...but Dullahan seems to have a
problem in the 2nd fraction. Looking at his POH Velocity ratings he is not making the move that he needs to make to stay with IHA and by the time he gets rolling in the 3rd fraction IHA should have enough of a lead to get to the wire first...UR looks about the same as Dullahan. Dullahan kinda reminds me of Drosselmyer...is always in position to win but the guys in front need to be really getting tired...BUT..these fractions are going to be so slow early like :49 or :50 1:13 to 1:15 so Dullahan may be closer than I expect him to be...but in my opinion I believe we have us a TC winner...good luck everyone and let's get some longshots on the undercard!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! |
06-07-2012, 04:08 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 206
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My instint tells me the the fav will be beat however if I use that preakness line he is the pick. Thanks for your comments too Id like to hear more from every one.
Good skill, Doug |
06-08-2012, 01:25 PM | #6 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 206
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with ill have another now scratched
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06-09-2012, 08:52 AM | #7 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2005
Posts: 593
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Val-Old school
Just for kicks I run it thru Val
__________________
Every day I wake up above the grass its a good day ! |
06-09-2012, 11:07 AM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: May 2006
Posts: 206
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final graph with paynter this time
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