General question about layoffs

[omar]

My belief is this: on the dirt long layoffs are the kiss of death. Even the best horses on the ground can't find a win following their Breeders Cup wins coming back in January or February the following year. If the best horses can't do it what makes you think ordinary horses will. There's only a handful of horses that specialize in that department but unless they show it in their pp's, stay away.
On the turf I ignore layoffs because these types invariably come back running. I've seen this year after year for the last 45 years. People still won't play these horses. If you eliminate a horse on the grass because it didn't race recently, do it at your own risk. Hey don't take my word for it, do your own research on equibase, the full charts are FREE. CLASS is also very important on the grass, sprint pr routes. On 4/5 in last race at GP #11 blew up the tote board with the most back class in race running 2nd.
As far as works are concerned I specifically look for sharp fast works in races for 3yos following their last race for FORM REVERSALS (BIG BOUNCE) as long as they don't show it in their previous works. For examples of this look at the 1st races at GP on 3/14 and 3/15 on the winners, one a FTS paying $85 and the other $36.
Gulfstream Park - Race 1 on 03 14 2020.pdf

Gulfstream Park - Race 1 on 03 15 2020.pdf

[Bill Lyster]

Thank you all for your inputs. Food for many thoughts going forward.

Here is an observation related to first time starters. RDSS on the entries screen has a column labeled WR which is a workout rating. In a race with several FTS horses a really big number in this column (over 100 usually and 10-20 points higher than any other FTS is a sign of peak readiness for a first time out score.

[barryt]

Bill re Browns FTS Mighty road. The lengthening of days between workouts is disturbing.

[omar]

Oaklawn Park - Race 11 on 04 11 2020.pdf
Look at todays OP race 11. Note the 2 fast 5f works by the 3&9, both trained by Bret W Calhoun. Do you see how the 3 improved after his work on 12/7 plus he's out of Storm Cat a notorious off track sire or broodmare sire.
Look at the pp's. It's right there in b&w highlighted in red.
I played 'em both. 3 wins at 46/1. See my previous post.

[omar]

Someone once said "give a man a fish and he'll eat for a day, teach a man to fish and he'll eat for a lifetime".
I gave you the map (insight) on how to find these types of horses and if you don't look you won't find them. I'm not going to give you (post) the horse.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by barryt

Bill re Browns FTS Mighty road. The lengthening of days between workouts is disturbing.

Barry, to what race are you referring?

[CheckMark]

Originally Posted by omar

My belief is this: on the dirt long layoffs are the kiss of death. Even the best horses on the ground can't find a win following their Breeders Cup wins coming back in January or February the following year. If the best horses can't do it what makes you think ordinary horses will. There's only a handful of horses that specialize in that department but unless they show it in their pp's, stay away.
On the turf I ignore layoffs because these types invariably come back running. I've seen this year after year for the last 45 years. People still won't play these horses. If you eliminate a horse on the grass because it didn't race recently, do it at your own risk. Hey don't take my word for it, do your own research on equibase, the full charts are FREE. CLASS is also very important on the grass, sprint pr routes. On 4/5 in last race at GP #11 blew up the tote board with the most back class in race running 2nd.
As far as works are concerned I specifically look for sharp fast works in races for 3yos following their last race for FORM REVERSALS (BIG BOUNCE) as long as they don't show it in their previous works. For examples of this look at the 1st races at GP on 3/14 and 3/15 on the winners, one a FTS paying $85 and the other $36.
Attachment 48791

Attachment 48792

If you purchase “Finding The Hidden Horse” by Conrad Crease, this basic concept can let you find longshot winners by looking at workouts, troubled trips and drop back in distance. He also suggested to look for back class, early speed, jockey and trainer stats. Just like Omar said it is simple to look for Longshots this way.

[Lefty]

I don't worry about layoffs. It's all about the numbers for me. I catch some nice longshots that way. Bottom line, many ways to skin he parimutuel machines...

[omar]

Bill Lyster i forgot to mention in my text to you that the 8 in race 1 at GP today was also a layoff horse on the grass. Only start was on 12/1/19 (4 months) on the dirt and in a sprint. I don't care, that's why he paid $22.20! Maidens, love 'em.

[barryt]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Barry, to what race are you referring?

Mighty Road you showed as an example in post #3

Some where else you said Pletcher brown don’t work 5 F
Here’s a race 11 at GP today#6 Varanasi for Pletcher
April 4 5f101.1
March 28 5f100.4
March 20 5f 101
March 13 5f 100