Haskell Stakes 2014

[Bill V.]

Its Bob Baffert again

[Bill Lyster]

Well, if you had enuf intestinal fortitude to believe in Bayern's last 7f race time, you would find that 120.3 + 2 fifths = 121 +6.2*4 furlongss = 146.3. He only had to run 147.2 to win.

No other horse could match that, with Untapable projecting to 147.4 and Wildcat Red to 148.1. Bayern's best mile projects to 148.1 as well.

The problem for me was the anticipated pace duel that I did not see Bayern surviving to the detriment of both him and Wildcat Red. The projection from the 7f race should have provided a clue, not that I heeded it.

On to the next race....

[lone speed]

Originally Posted by Bill Lyster

Well, if you had enuf intestinal fortitude to believe in Bayern's last 7f race time, you would find that 120.3 + 2 fifths = 121 +6.2*4 furlongss = 146.3. He only had to run 147.2 to win.

No other horse could match that, with Untapable projecting to 147.4 and Wildcat Red to 148.1. Bayern's best mile projects to 148.1 as well.

The problem for me was the anticipated pace duel that I did not see Bayern surviving to the detriment of both him and Wildcat Red. The projection from the 7f race should have provided a clue, not that I heeded it.

On to the next race....

Bill L.

These pace observations are important observations. As you gather more of the same observations; they become guidelines that we can look for in future matchup of races. They fit in line with the collections of track models; so to speak. Finally, as one makes enough of the same pace observation of doing many pace matchups; these observations become convictions.

I was very high on Bayern in this year's Preakness; I thought he had a strong chance to be competitive with California Chrome but it was not to be as Bayern finished up the track. I was perplexed to say the least as Bayern finished up the track some 21 lengths behind the winner of the Preakness. But when Bayern was entered on the second biggest racing day of the year on Belmont Day, I understood some of my misconceptions of Bayern's assessment in the Preakness race. "Stick to your convictions!!"

[Bill Lyster]

See the race in Matchup section from yesterday

[Bill Lyster]

My Preakness work up looked like this:

I know Bayern had trouble after the start, but based on the Hat's marathon methods he would not have been a contender. The chart shows the horses, date of race, location, Graded condition or ALW of each horse's best mile time.

Ride on Curlin the place horse was a surprise. I discounted Social Inclusion's best time as it was from an allowance race. Once you do that you get CC with the best two times, SI with 4th best, GAR with 3rd best. CC's 2nd best time was 1.68 seconds slower than Bayern's best which came from a Grade 3 race on a one turn mile surface. Lots of old Sartin advice in this table if you look at graded races vs non graded.

Bill