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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 04-15-2018, 09:33 PM   #21
lone speed
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I used 2.0 seconds for run-up instead of 1.80 seconds

This is why the "caveat emptor" sign was on display...

I used 1.80 seconds for my previous adjustments and today, I used 2.0 seconds for the run-up adjustments...

Mendelssohn's adjusted fractions should be:

23.42 46.73 110:48 for 6F 135:06 for mile 147:66 for 9F and 1:54:06 for 9.5 F

Mendelssohn's last 3 furlongs for 9Furlongs is 37.18

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Old 04-16-2018, 11:34 PM   #22
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Bill Lyster's Mile Fractions

Bill L.

Thanks for burning the midnight oil on your Excel spreadsheet:

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Old 04-17-2018, 12:15 PM   #23
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No problem. All I needed was the charts from last weekend and a list of the top 20 points earners. It was a rolling work in progress until then.

I found that a couple of horses running styles might need to be changed, but anyone can do that with the file I posted. Just change to whatever style you think is appropriate and re-sort. Then you can see the fastest fractions and positions by the various groups of horses and make your KD pics accordingly.

The winner needs to be close and gaining near the mile call an inordinate amount of times.

Good luck to all.
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Old 04-17-2018, 12:33 PM   #24
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Concerning the above post, something from last year that emphasizes the need to be on or near the lead at the mile call in the Derby. Last year only adds to those stats as the winner ran on or near the lead all the way.

This quote was from Jon White's pre Derby analysis.

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Old 04-17-2018, 12:39 PM   #25
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One more from last year:

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Old 04-20-2018, 01:54 PM   #26
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An update from columnist Jon White today,

"But Kentucky Derby history shows that it is important for a horse to be able to make their move before they reach the final furlong. That's because 52 of the last 55 Kentucky Derby winners have been first or second with a furlong to go."
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Old 04-20-2018, 11:40 PM   #27
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WoW

Just like Doc said any horse in a route 1st on the turn coming home has advantage for sure

Text book Theory WoW
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