FPLR - Evangeline Downs - Race 5 - Saturday 7/30/16 - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 07-30-2016, 07:18 AM

OK here is one of the races Mark is interested in. It is tonight's 5th race from EVD - Post time looks like 8:35 here on the East Coast.

Here are the entries and other info from the "dashboard' screen

RichieP · 07-30-2016, 07:19 AM

Here are the Tandems from the race:

RichieP · 07-30-2016, 07:19 AM

The field -

RichieP · 07-30-2016, 07:22 AM

The field-

RichieP · 07-30-2016, 07:25 AM

What is the projected pace?
Who is FPLR?
Do tandems help you in any way with contender selection?
Who is Early?
Who is OTE?
Are there runners who can run BOTH styles?
What are the POWER LINES for the runners (contenders)?
How are you wagering?
1 horse?
2 horses?
best value bet?
Best E +Best OTE?
Best value bet of each of the 2 categories?
did the bets come to you quickly? was it very hard for you to work the race?
Richie

Mark · 07-30-2016, 10:48 AM

This is a race loaded with horses that have shown to run their best pushing hard for the lead. There are also two long layoff horses #8 and #10, off 274 day and 289 days respectively that I made EPS. That's 1 E and 4 EPs. Richie showed a spot play in the Hat Check Blog that suggested you have to account for each of the early horses at the 1st call if you variegate the race OTE which I have done. So I am looking for a horse that will be in at least 5th position at the 1st call. My FPLR horse is #9 at 22.4 -46.2 from his last race. But he now has to step up to NW-3L. I also note the lay off horse #10 who shows a 21.9 - 46.1 from his POWER LINE. The #4's POWER LINE shows a 2nd Call of 45.8, 1/2 length back.
I don't have tremendous confidence in my handicapping of this race as these are pretty cheap, unreliable horses. But my feeling is that there will be 5 horses charging out for the lead and if the #10 shakes free early as fresh horses often do, they are going to be running on fumes as they turn for home. One run late horses have the opportunity to swoop by in the shadow of the wire and that is either the #3 or the #6. The #3 would be my horse because he moves first but his paceline is so dang slow. The #6 makes a POWER MOVE 1C -2C gaining 3 positions and over 4 lengths off a 45.9 second call. Even though I would like to see some activity on the track since its last race, this is my horse. I might take a #1, #3, #6 exacta box as a saver. Name: EVD7.30.5contenders.PNG
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Name: EVD7.30.5contenders.PNG
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Size: 74.8 KB

MikeB · 07-30-2016, 03:00 PM

I just checked yesterday's charts for EVD. The card started with the track condition "Wet fast sealed" and was later upgraded to fast. Everything was off turf and the conditions today are shown as fast and off turf with 30% chance of a thunderstorm.

Live streaming video is at:
http://www.evdracing.com/at-the-wire...d-race-replays

Mitch44 · 07-30-2016, 03:32 PM

I worked this without doing my regular and only paper and pen wit what was posted above. The FPLR could be either the 5 or the 9 as their both really close, take your pick. Because of the distance and NW3-L for $5,000 it appears to be a lot of cheap speed in this race and believe it sets up for a closer such as the #6. In such a race an EP or a P can be the other closer. I would bet at least two horses in this race as form is really unknown with these types.
I used lines: #1 L 2 runs a good race bad race, probably due a good one
# 2 L 4 Better on turf, wrong footing and poor form, non- contender
# 3 L 1 Last was best of its last 6 races, reason unknown with no apparent information given.On improve & may run back to a better race of L7. Unknown factor with M/L of 15-1. Not betting but if I was it would be worth a save bet for a $1 or 2 in an ugly race.
# 4 L 2
# 5 L 3 Last best in last 6 races and on improve
# 6 L 2 Cut back in distance favorable
# 7 L 3
# 8 L 2 Cut back in distance favorable
# 9 L 1
#10 L 3
I only used what was put up here, no trainer stats available for layoff horses. My final two are the # 6 at 8-1 and # 8 at 3-1. Without doing my norm I'll be passing betting and here only for the exercise.
Best of luck,
Mitch 44

shoeless · 07-30-2016, 05:13 PM

Cant explain as I am heading out the door but I would go with 7 going back to his race 3 back

I feel last race was a tightner as he made a more from the 1st to 2nd call

DaveEdwards · 07-30-2016, 07:39 PM

8 & 7 split 60:40 as per.

Can't see this one going early & agree with Jeff on the 7. Last race for me was a tightener.
Sorry for lack of explanation, v.busy with family right now!

07-30-2016, 07:19 AM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Here are the Tandems from the race: Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-30-2016, 07:25 AM	#5
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	What is the projected pace? Who is FPLR? Do tandems help you in any way with contender selection? Who is Early? Who is OTE? Are there runners who can run BOTH styles? What are the POWER LINES for the runners (contenders)? How are you wagering? 1 horse? 2 horses? best value bet? Best E +Best OTE? Best value bet of each of the 2 categories? did the bets come to you quickly? was it very hard for you to work the race? Richie __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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07-30-2016, 07:18 AM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	FPLR - Evangeline Downs - Race 5 - Saturday 7/30/16 OK here is one of the races Mark is interested in. It is tonight's 5th race from EVD - Post time looks like 8:35 here on the East Coast. Here are the entries and other info from the "dashboard' screen Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-30-2016, 07:19 AM	#3
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	The field - Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-30-2016, 07:22 AM	#4
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	The field- Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

07-30-2016, 10:48 AM	#6
Mark Grade 1 Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 318	My take This is a race loaded with horses that have shown to run their best pushing hard for the lead. There are also two long layoff horses #8 and #10, off 274 day and 289 days respectively that I made EPS. That's 1 E and 4 EPs. Richie showed a spot play in the Hat Check Blog that suggested you have to account for each of the early horses at the 1st call if you variegate the race OTE which I have done. So I am looking for a horse that will be in at least 5th position at the 1st call. My FPLR horse is #9 at 22.4 -46.2 from his last race. But he now has to step up to NW-3L. I also note the lay off horse #10 who shows a 21.9 - 46.1 from his POWER LINE. The #4's POWER LINE shows a 2nd Call of 45.8, 1/2 length back. I don't have tremendous confidence in my handicapping of this race as these are pretty cheap, unreliable horses. But my feeling is that there will be 5 horses charging out for the lead and if the #10 shakes free early as fresh horses often do, they are going to be running on fumes as they turn for home. One run late horses have the opportunity to swoop by in the shadow of the wire and that is either the #3 or the #6. The #3 would be my horse because he moves first but his paceline is so dang slow. The #6 makes a POWER MOVE 1C -2C gaining 3 positions and over 4 lengths off a 45.9 second call. Even though I would like to see some activity on the track since its last race, this is my horse. I might take a #1, #3, #6 exacta box as a saver.

07-30-2016, 03:00 PM	#7
MikeB Grade 1 Join Date: Mar 2014 Posts: 154	I just checked yesterday's charts for EVD. The card started with the track condition "Wet fast sealed" and was later upgraded to fast. Everything was off turf and the conditions today are shown as fast and off turf with 30% chance of a thunderstorm. Live streaming video is at: http://www.evdracing.com/at-the-wire...d-race-replays

07-30-2016, 03:32 PM	#8
Mitch44 Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2014 Location: The Villages, Fl. Posts: 3,705	I worked this without doing my regular and only paper and pen wit what was posted above. The FPLR could be either the 5 or the 9 as their both really close, take your pick. Because of the distance and NW3-L for $5,000 it appears to be a lot of cheap speed in this race and believe it sets up for a closer such as the #6. In such a race an EP or a P can be the other closer. I would bet at least two horses in this race as form is really unknown with these types. I used lines: #1 L 2 runs a good race bad race, probably due a good one # 2 L 4 Better on turf, wrong footing and poor form, non- contender # 3 L 1 Last was best of its last 6 races, reason unknown with no apparent information given.On improve & may run back to a better race of L7. Unknown factor with M/L of 15-1. Not betting but if I was it would be worth a save bet for a $1 or 2 in an ugly race. # 4 L 2 # 5 L 3 Last best in last 6 races and on improve # 6 L 2 Cut back in distance favorable # 7 L 3 # 8 L 2 Cut back in distance favorable # 9 L 1 #10 L 3 I only used what was put up here, no trainer stats available for layoff horses. My final two are the # 6 at 8-1 and # 8 at 3-1. Without doing my norm I'll be passing betting and here only for the exercise. Best of luck, Mitch 44 Last edited by Mitch44; 07-30-2016 at 03:42 PM.

07-30-2016, 05:13 PM	#9
shoeless Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 4,151	Cant explain as I am heading out the door but I would go with 7 going back to his race 3 back I feel last race was a tightner as he made a more from the 1st to 2nd call

07-30-2016, 07:39 PM	#10
DaveEdwards Grade 1 Join Date: Nov 2008 Location: England Posts: 489	8 & 7 split 60:40 as per. Can't see this one going early & agree with Jeff on the 7. Last race for me was a tightener. Sorry for lack of explanation, v.busy with family right now!