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Old 04-15-2015, 09:34 AM   #1
The Pook
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Matchup Challenge Apr 18/19 by Mowens33

Your turn again Mike.
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Old 04-16-2015, 01:04 PM   #2
mowens33
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CT Classic

Gentlemen, let’s give the CT Classic a go!

Can Shared Belief be beat in this race???????????
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Old 04-16-2015, 04:26 PM   #3
The Pook
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Thoughts on Charles Town?

I don't know much about CT. I had the impression that it was a bullring. Do the big shakers in the sport normally run here?

Bill Lyster you're a western guy familiar with all things on the coast. We have Shared Belief beating California Chrome who then goes over and comes 2nd in Dubai against the best in the world. Shared Belief gets to go to Charles Town? He doesn't even get to pass GO and collect $200 Is racing at SA not a world of difference from CT?

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Old 04-16-2015, 04:33 PM   #4
Bill Lyster
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I think a purse of $1,500,000 is like a gift vs who he is competing against. Moreno appears to be only competition. there are a couple of 40K claimers and some grade 3 types. I expect not much more than a paid workout worth between $900K or $300K depending on whether he is first or 2nd.

My guess its just a filler in between the graded races on derby or preakness day.

thats my 2 cents worth anyway.
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Old 04-16-2015, 04:47 PM   #5
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HOWEVER, that being said, last year Imperative upset Game on Dude at 26.5:1. Imperative did not do much before or after that race, so who knows. Note also that win pays $1,000,000 and place pays $245,000 using last years info.

Imperative since that race has lost convincingly to Shared Belief 4 times, but who knows if he is a "horse for the course"??
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Old 04-16-2015, 05:00 PM   #6
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That is quite interesting!

I noticed something else while comparing Beyers to RDSS speed numbers. Last race..
Shared Belief 111 Beyer, next best is General ARods 104 Beyer
Shared Belief 83 Adj Trackmaster SR, General ARods is 93 Adj Trackmaster SR

Thats quite a difference in opinion.
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Old 04-16-2015, 05:29 PM   #7
GeorgeC5614
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I will jump in the deep end with this Match Up thing

The running styles I have:
1 Sustained though he did win from a pressing position
2 Presser
3 Early
4 Presser
5 Sustain
6 Early
7 Presser
8 Early
9 Presser

I have this race running OTE, and so the 3, 6, and 8 are out as win contenders. The projected pace I found was the 6 from the Breeders' Cup Classic with the 1/2 in 46.4 and the 3/4 in 1:10.2 (I don't if that is too far back to project the pace from) Of the non-early horses the 5 and the 9 do not seem to be able to handle this kind of pace. The 1 has run against this pace and won, as has the 2. Of these two I believe the 2 is the better option. That leaves just the 2 and the 4. Based on the mile times of both horses I think the 2 will get to the 1/8 pole first, and the 4 will be right behind.

My win bets would be on the 2 and 4. I hope I did this right.
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Old 04-16-2015, 05:32 PM   #8
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And of course the majority of the betting public will be blinded by that glorious 111 Beyer!. Me too maybe...

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Old 04-16-2015, 05:36 PM   #9
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Welcome GeorgeC5614! You presented perfectly.

Good Luck,
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Old 04-16-2015, 05:40 PM   #10
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well, to me it looks chalky...my plays are.......6-4

#6 moreno 7/2...looks to be the the speed...3rd off the layoff..gets 5 lbs from shared belief. with these bull ring turns...e and eps rule...gets the lead and lasts...will have to hold off shared belief
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