OP Race 5 and 6 workup VAL4 - 2/16/17

[Jeebs]

Race 5



Pacelines - Pre-scratch...

1-Line 1. Sloppy track race 75 days ago but BL3 ASR 81. Won't discredit.
2-Line 2. Last line was a $10k starter allowance and today's is a $7.5k. Opted for Line 2 which was vs. $7.5k company and BL3 ASR 86.
3-Line 1. 89 days ago, which just makes it under FTL's conservative guidelines for paceline selection. Also a BL3 ASR of 78.
4-Line 1. No reason to go back farther.
5-Line 2. Same rationale as the 2 horse, plus a "slow start" trouble line from Line 1. BL3 ASR of 83 in Line 2.
6-Line 1. No need to go farther back.
7-Line 1. Ditto.
8-Line 2. Tough call IMO. Both Lines 1 and 2 are BL3 ASR of 82. Line 1 is a + line but loses ground 2nd call to stretch and stretch to finish. Line 2 was a wire-to-wire effort vs. $7.5k company, which makes the horse eligible for today's condition. Could 8 be going off form? Maybe.

Primary screen: Hid the 1-3-6 due to low rankings and low total energy. Not much going for them.


Early/Late screen: 7 is the top TE horse in the race but is more of a balanced early compared to 4 and 8 whose TE are lower, yet their E/L spread is higher. 2 is the 2nd ranked TE and is the lone counter-energy horse, with a slightly late spread.


Incremental Match-Up screen: 4 going 1st to 5th from 1F to 2F is a red flag. Likely non-contender.

[Jeebs]

BL/BL: The 4 from our last screen was ranked last on BL/BL, so it's hidden. 7 and 2 appear to be our primary contenders. Validator screen basically agrees as both are tied for top V/DC-T. Chalky race. No real surprises. However, with the 6-1 and 12-1 ML horses in the mix, this could set up some decent exacta opportunities by hiding whoever ends up ultimately being the favorite.

[Jeebs]

Pacelines:
1-No Line. Only a single + sprint line last 3 and no inclination to route based on previous route races.
2-Line 1. No reason to go beyond.
3-Line 2. Line 1 was technically a + race off a long layoff, although the horse lost to a runaway winner. SR was a low 70. Horse showed same fighting tendencies in Line 1 that it did in Line 2 (ASR 80). Form appears comparable, so despite the age of the line, I will use as it seems more representative. You could probably make a case for Line 3 as well (ASR 82).
4-Line 1. No reason to go beyond.
5-Line 1. Muddy track, yes, but Line 2 is a poly line from TP. With a 2 point spread in ASR between the two lines (The traditional Trackmaster SR showed the TP line as a 77 top), I'll lean toward performance at today's venue.
6-Line 1. No reason to go beyond.
7-Line 1. Again, no reason to go beyond last line.
8-No Line. Line 1 was soundly defeated first time vs. winners. Line 2 was a MCL breaking win, while lone dirt route shows no inclination of going long. I'll let beat me.
9-Line 3. Line 1 is a plus within zero, which opens the window. Line 2 is a sprint (non-comparable) while Line 3 is in the wheelhouse. 76 ASR.

[Jeebs]

Primary screen - At first glance, my instinct is that this looks like a chaotic race. The 5, who I opted for the OP line over the TP line, is last in TE but top LPR and 3rd HE. However, the other rankings don't flatter. I'll hide. The 7, who is next to last TE, ranks 3rd in LPR, CPR, TE and FW, while ranking 3rd in Primary LS. Could be live here. I'll hide the 2, whose Primary and Supp LS rank near the bottom and sports mediocre rankings in most of the Primary categories. So my Top 5 is set.


Early/Late screen: All the contenders trend late, with the top 2 TE horses having a small late spread compared to the others.


Incremental Match-Up: The 4 falls from 1st to 5th from 1F to 2F, but recoups to be 3rd in 3F+TP. The 3 power moves from 4th 1F to 1st 2F and 3F+TP. Looks the main danger to me right now.

[Jeebs]

BL/BL screen: Validates my thought on 3: a decent spread between him and the other choices. I ended up hiding the 4 based on the Incremental screen. Validator shows the top V/DC-T between 3-6. 7-9 are the bottom tier but long odds. See how it plays out.

[Jeebs]

The 4 in Race 5... eliminated in the Incremental Match-Up and BL/BL on the computer, a $42.60 winner in real life. 7 gets the place dough. Top 2 finishers were 3rd and 1st TE. Next.

[Jeebs]

The eliminated 4 gets me again in the 6th. Ugh. In the hole

[Tim Y]

race 5, the 4 was standout in both F1 and EP from the Hawthorne race in December and Arlington on 9/10/16 and 7/28/16, best F1 of the group...Earlies did well all day. 7, Areed (another earlier one) could be used as the KEY in that race for exotics...almost a standout.

Weaker numbers late, BUT at those odds, worth the shot.

[Tim Y]

For WAGERING CONSIDERATIONS always consider the top 6

Get an idea of their drift from morning line and look for the overlays, OR if you are playing exotics, look over the top 6 for tri's and supers. Find TWO to key and sprinkle in the others OFTEN hitting the "ALL" on the 4th slot.

Tie breaker either the longer odds or the earlier horse of the two.

[Tim Y]

http://www.brisnet.com/content/2017/...ce-february-6/