Fplr

[Capcondo]

I have been looking at the FPLR in every race I play recently with good results. I have a question about FPLR. Do you consider the following when deciding who the FPLR horse is?

1. Distance
2. Surface
3. Track condition
4. Beaten lengths by the FPLR horse.


Also, I noticed when the FPLR is also a tandem race, the winner frequently comes from that race. Has anyone else tracked this?

This may well be in the hatcheck but I could not locate it.

Thanks for your help.

Tim

[mikesal57]

Tim

I see your doing a hell of a job on your own tracking this..

I would say definitely a must on 1 + 2

3....I'd prefer a fast track , I dont know for sure if the horse relished the off going.

4...if the tandem horse ran close to the winner I'd expect a turnaround next time figuring the winner ran a top race and should retract from doing it again.

The Hat Check forum has been closed , so you got this in the right place

Keep us up to date with your progress and maybe we can get this concept going again

thxs

mike

[RichieP]

Morning Tim
Just a little feedback on your FPLR:

1) 2 horses you are looking at for today's FPLR from the horses LAST race.
Horse "A" comes from 21.4 - 45.0
Horse "B" comes from 22.2 - 44.4

The FPLR is the "A" horse NOT the "B" with the faster 2c time. Remember Hat started all the way to the left side of the pps and the 3 ticks faster 1c on the "A" runner more than makes up for the 1 tick edge on the "B"


2) LONGSHOT detector focusing on FPLR:
Find horses who moved forward POSITIONALLY from 1c-2c into that FPLR then COLLAPSED finishing well out of the money.

Open the pps up ALL the way on this runner to grab his POWER LINE. If that line projects him against TODAY'S match-up and his running style makes you happy pay close attention as his odds will often be inflated big time due to that last race out of the money finish

Good matching everyone

[Bill Lyster]

Thanks Rich,

Exactly the kind of clarification that I was about to ask about

[Capcondo]

Friday night at Delta Downs, I hit a 5 furlong race with an FPLR horse that was also a tandem race. The same thing happened on Friday in a race from TP. I have noticed in the short time I have been using FPLR that if the race is a tandem, the winner frequently comes from that race.

In addition, horses that are far back and close against the FPLR are not good plays. They benefit from the fast pace. Horses that are trying to keep up with the pace are better bets the next time out. You'll notice in the FPLR race that the 5 and 7 are trying to keep up while the 2 is a deep closer. You'll see that the 5 and 7 are virtually dead even through the first two calls. Then the 7 stops and the 5 keeps going. Friday, the 7 was 43/1 and the 5 was 3/2. No brainer.

Here is the rdss screenshot. I used the FPLR lines for the tandem and logical lines for the other contenders.




Here is the result chart:



FPLR is not a secret. Most of these horses pay 8/5 to 3/1. However, I have seen a couple of 9/1 shots and this horse here in the last couple of weeks so there are some good prices out there.

I played this race at my local OTB and got a little excited when the horse came in which got me out of a slump. I should have kept my mouth shut. A greyhound player tried to educate me to the 3 and 7 dog the rest of the night!

Tim

[Capcondo]

One more thing. The horse that won the FPLR race came back to run 2nd in a 100k race at Delta on Saturday night.

Tim

[dlivery]

Hi There

Excellent use of the rdss formula two shakes and gone.

Dlivery