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Old 01-02-2017, 11:45 AM   #1
Mr.Pagine
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Configure Settings and Happy New Year to all.

My personal goal in 2017 is to become the absolute best handicapper I can be; and with this as the goal, I ask you all 2 questions:

1) What is the best configuration setting?

2) What is the best Paceline Selection Strategy?

Happy New Year to All, and may all of your bets CASH!!

Jon Lee
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Old 01-02-2017, 06:42 PM   #2
Lt1
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Hi Jon and Happy New Year to you. In answer to your questions I stay with the default configuration setting and use the best of the last 3 preceptor rating as my paceline selection. I will however change the ones I do not concur with.
Tim G
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Old 01-02-2017, 07:39 PM   #3
Tim Y
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Oaklawn

John call me when I return from helping my sister with her hip operation and we will look after Oaklawn. I e-mailed you about that.

I work evenings at the standardbreds Monday, Thursday, Friday and Saturday.

THE REAL TRICK in this game is NOT the evaluation of the field but the way you take advantage of the crowd's ignorance as regards it, aka BETTING properly..we can play Oaklawn together, a real nice track with good payouts.
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Old 01-02-2017, 10:40 PM   #4
Bill V.
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Phase 1

Happy New Year

I use the default setting, but validator mode,

My pace line selection method= Last Line

Last line, evaluate every horse, then either stay with the last line, or make changes if last line is not comparable,

I next evaluate all lines for running style, and look at the horses three highest TPR lines,
I Select a recent line within the last 3 or maybe four that is representative of the horse ability of EPR LPR and Early Late stick , I go to the energy screen and check %med and energy running styles for conformation based on my model and profile,

This method works well for me at So Cal I only seriously wager Del Mar and Santa Anita so the DTV is not much of an issue .

Happy new year
Bill
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Old 01-06-2017, 01:21 PM   #5
Tim Y
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arbitrarty

just blindly using the last line guarantees an inaccurate assessment of a horse's overall ability: sample error at its worst.

You are looking at that horse's adaptation to the ONE specific pace and TRIP (a huge variable) that the horse encountered ONE day.
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Old 01-06-2017, 03:34 PM   #6
DanBoals
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I don't think anyone is advocating to blindly use the last line. The last line is important though, Hambleton told me to always look at the last line, since there might be a hidden move or something there that doesn't jump out to the eye. Howard told me the best paceline advice he had to give was to use the last line unless you have a reason to use another. For example, the last line isn't the same distance/surface so go further back. I am by no means an expert, but I try to always look at the last line, whether I use it for my handicapping or one further back.
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Old 01-06-2017, 05:32 PM   #7
Bill V.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Y View Post
just blindly using the last line guarantees an inaccurate assessment of a horse's overall ability: sample error at its worst.

You are looking at that horse's adaptation to the ONE specific pace and TRIP (a huge variable) that the horse encountered ONE day.
Hi Tim

I guess you failed to read my post I START with the last line.
I disagree with you, I feel the last line is very important, It the most recent example of a horses form and ability, I almost always move off the last line.
Always rate the last line its mentioned more then a few times in Pace Makes The Race
how important it is to evaluate every horses last line.
. The OP asked what each of us do, so That is what I did.
I am very successful.You would be more helpful to offer your answers to direct questions rather than just comment on what other who are sucessful do This is not the Tim Y methodology
Peace and love and skill to you

Bill
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Old 01-06-2017, 05:42 PM   #8
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr.Pagine View Post
My personal goal in 2017 is to become the absolute best handicapper I can be; and with this as the goal, I ask you all 2 questions:

1) What is the best configuration setting?

2) What is the best Paceline Selection Strategy?

Happy New Year to All, and may all of your bets CASH!!

Jon Lee
Happy New Year, Jon!

Well - if you ask me, use the Default settings (that's why they're defaults). Best of Last 3 comparable distance structure and surface, and default Adjustments for DTV and use of TrackMaster Inter Track Variants.

Together with the new Rx line (in testing in RDSS V2.1) this gets you the winner in the Top 4 better than BLBL, and between 77 - 80% of the time (depending on field size, surface, FTS, etc). Then you should do due diligence about whether the chosen line is within the E/L distribution range for this distance/surface, whether there are too many other horses in the race with better CSR ratings (i.e. Top 5 win ~85%+ of all races) or other Contender qualification strategies you use (though this is sometimes a great way to zig and zag and tout yourself off 'apparently' sketchy horses with can still win (or Place). Or you can just try 100 races and see what the defaults + 'hands-off' get you, by way of valid Contenders.

THEN - as you know - you see what kind of odds you are offered for your Top 4. If you have a consistent strategy for eliminating (or hedging) the betting favourite - or confirming the favourite is legitimate, then passing or seeking value in exotics including horizontals - then, along with confirmation by the tote board analysis (Tx1, Tx2) - you're getting close ...

Ted
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Old 01-06-2017, 05:50 PM   #9
Bill V.
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Race 3 SA Mud

Here is an example of how I look at the races

I am alive in the pick 3 with this $17 winner # 9

I used the last line. Its a very good TPR ( its best ever )
I would have used line 2 as its at the same 6.5 distanceand since I look at the 3 highest TPR ratings for the horse, Line 2 seems to be representative
However my Santa Anita Profile and Model is showing me that LPR is doing very well Here are the last 20+ races run at SA
LPR is doing great and EPR not so well. I have not entered todays data yet but race 1, 2 and 3 have been won by the top 3 LPRS
I used the last line because of the better LPR rating

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Old 01-06-2017, 06:01 PM   #10
Bill V.
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Im alive with 2 tickets

Need 2 6 7 8

$1.00(12)-(1)-(7;8)
$1.00(12)-(5;7)-(4)
$1.00(10;9)-(1)-(4)
$1.00(12)-(5;7)-(7;8)
$1.00(10;9)-(1)-(7;8)
$1.00(10;9)-(5;7)-(4)
$1.00(12)-(5;7)-(2;6)
$1.00(12)-(2;3)-(7;8)
$1.00(10;9)-(1)-(2;6)
$1.00(10;9)-(2;3)-(4)
$1.00(8;6)-(1)-(7;8)
$1.00(8;6)-(5;7)-(4)
$1.00(12)-(2;3)-(2;6)
$1.00(8;6)-(1)-(2;6)
$1.00(8;6)-(2;3)-(4
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