|
Google Site Search | Get RDSS | Sartin Library | RDSS FAQs | Conduct | Register | Site FAQ | Members List | Search | Today's Posts | Mark Forums Read
Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems |
|
Thread Tools | Display Modes |
03-26-2017, 09:55 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Sunland Derby
Finally one of these preps pays well with a logical pace lines and the winner ranks in the top 3.
I did not bet this but I worked it as soon as I saw it had run on a post at PA. The 9 is a sustained runner There were lots of Early and EP MS only winners Here are my notes Sunland Derby Grade 3 $800.000 3 yo Top 5 TPR 3,6,9,4,11 ( Line 1 all horses ) Fulcrum POR 87.5 111.3 Horse 1. Sus Non contender only usable + paceline is line 3 but Its against a very slow pace Horse 2. EP Its + paceline is it's ms win against a slow POR Non contender Line 2 Horse 3. Early . It has a + paceline in line 1 but its only a MS54 win The POR was faster than today's Fulcrum but only at 8 furlongs I wll rate off line 1 Horse 4. E/P Similar to horse 3 , It has all + pacelines line 1 Is a MS72 win so that is the rating line . Horse 5. Presser This is the fulcrum horse line 1 is a + pace line at 8.5 at todays track Contender Horse 6 , Presser, Another MS72 winner Line 1 is a 0 paceline Line 2 is the rating line Not a serious contender Horse 7. Scratch Horse 8. SP, Seconditis special, 30/1 ML This one 6 Place + pace lines 7 of 10 however , it looks out classed in here having run in a graded race and it only shows a MS23 win. I will rate off line 2 Horse 9, SP This is a good example of why its important to rate every horse off its last line FIRST , Line 1 looks , and is a 0 race but the TPR is one of the top 3. Line 2 is a MS72 win line. It is recent I will rate using this line . I don't want to use a off track but the options are limited and the DTV does not look like it was a factor . Horse 10, Presser Line 1 is excused, as a first race after a long layoff at the wrong surface, Line 2 is excused for class line 3 is the rating paceline but its only against ST80 2 year olds rating only Horse 11. Presser Line 1 is a + paceline. Its current, Horse 12. Early, Line 1 is a + paceline. Its current, |
03-26-2017, 11:24 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
|
Fulcrum question
Hi Bill,
Not being a pest, I promise! I thought the fulcrum had to be today's distance and surface? The Sunland Derby was 9f, while the fulcrum line was 8.5f. Wouldn't that technically not be a fulcrum? |
03-27-2017, 04:09 AM | #3 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Yes
You are not a pest It is a good observation, yes the fulcrum should be the exact same distance , but I used horse 5
Horse 5 ran at 8.5 from Sunland , nobody in the race ran 9 furlongs , and since the the fulcrum must come from the last line I excused the half furlong difference. Most all the other horses were coming from 8 furlong races and other tracks The fulcrum method is a contender tool Bill |
03-27-2017, 11:03 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,117
|
Nice score Bill.
Tim G
__________________
Trust but verify |
03-27-2017, 03:32 PM | #5 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Nice work Bill.
Mitch44 |
03-27-2017, 07:50 PM | #6 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
|
Thank You
Thank you
Tim and Mitch |
Thread Tools | |
Display Modes | |
|
|