Are most races paceless? - Pace and Cap

Bill Lyster · 10-12-2017, 07:44 PM

Once we are beyond the true earlies in a race, next comes decision on the pressers and the others.

If they have run against todays pace then we have a basis for comparison but if they have not, we need to determine if the horse will run the same time and end up running nearer or farther from the pace or be truly pace-dependent.

So for example the pace of race is 22.0-45.0, but our horse has a good race where it ran 21.8-44.8 and was 2 lengths off both fractions. Will it run 2 off the slower pace and theoretically have reserve energy or will it run 1 length off at both fractions and basically run the same race as its good race.

So, will this horse be a close contender at the first call or not. How do you evaluate these possible scenarios?

Similar Threads
Thread	Thread Starter	Forum	Replies	Last Post
Paceless Races	RichieP	Matchup Discussion	346	01-01-2018 08:44 AM
20 Race Cycles - For Beginners and Old Alike	Because I Can Jim	Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)	1	04-13-2017 03:56 PM
Non winner of 2 lifetime races	Bill Lyster	General Discussion	21	06-29-2015 12:25 AM
8 Month Matchup Thread (Re-posted)	Bill Lyster	Matchup Discussion	4	05-01-2015 05:02 PM
FTL - Race Conditions	NeedForSpeed	Previous 'Handicapping Discussion' Forum	15	06-17-2013 09:18 PM

10-12-2017, 07:44 PM	#9
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Once we are beyond the true earlies in a race, next comes decision on the pressers and the others. If they have run against todays pace then we have a basis for comparison but if they have not, we need to determine if the horse will run the same time and end up running nearer or farther from the pace or be truly pace-dependent. So for example the pace of race is 22.0-45.0, but our horse has a good race where it ran 21.8-44.8 and was 2 lengths off both fractions. Will it run 2 off the slower pace and theoretically have reserve energy or will it run 1 length off at both fractions and basically run the same race as its good race. So, will this horse be a close contender at the first call or not. How do you evaluate these possible scenarios?