The Derby as a Marathon Race

[Bill Lyster]

The pace looks to be moderate what with the fastest early horses not qualified on points, so it falls to Danzing Candy and Outwork to run something in the 47-111 range in the early going. The last two Derbys pace was about 47.4-111.3 (in tenths) with no ultra speed burners in there to mess up the legit horses.

Both of the first named horses have run on the lead in 136.37 or .38 to the mile mark, but should be pressured by Destin who pressed a 136.27 mile. Of these I would expect Destin to finish better than the first two.

Mohaymen, with forgiveness for his last has the two best mile times, one of the pace I have chosen and one off a slow fractioned race where he ran 49.06-112.52. In his fast race he ran 47.07-111.02-136.06, but finished up in 38.12, not good enough to beat Destin.

Nyquist could go to the lead, but why do it; he early pressed one win and won the Juvenile from 8th at the six furlong mark. He won the FLA Derby from 1st in 47.09-111.39-136.38, running the last part in 37.72. Should be neck and neck with Destin at the top of the stretch, but I would favor Nyquist because he has made up more lengths and positions than any horse previously mentioned.

Exaggerator has proven he can close, running 7-7-6-2-1 in SA Derby against a pace faster than anticipated here; has two of the top two mile times, 136.30 and 136.68, both times passing many horses and has good closing speed at 37.64 from his last race.

If I like Nyquist a gotta love the horse he beat in Florida, the ultra under the radar horse, Majesto. Look at the PPs, this horse improved off its maiden win where he passed horses and made up lengths, only to lose to Nyquist at 21:1. The early morning line goes up to 50/1 on several horses, but Majesto is listed as N/A!!!!. He ran 7-7-5-2-2 in FLA, closed from 3.25 to 2.00 lengths back from first call to 6 furlong mark and then lost ground to be 2nd by 3.25 lengths.

This is a great predictive pattern IMHO, Exaggerator having gone from 9.00/8.50/1.5/1.5/2.75 in the race before the SA Derby. Also Oxbow won the Preakness a couple back having run 5-2-2-6 in the Derby, with lengths back being 5.5/3.5/0.5/9.75.

Top pick is Exaggerator, then Nyquist and a box with Majesto and some saver money on Majesto across the board. I will have Destin in my trifecta as well. Would not want to miss another Giacomo.

Have a great weekend

[Bill Lyster]

Oops, I meant to say that Exaggerator had TWO of the top TEN mile times....

[ClockerDan]

I would like to ask a question to those more qualified than myself - does anyone still use the
3/4 to end of 9f time as a measure for how well the horse will carry himself for 1 1/4 derby?

Moyhaman has the fastest mile time out of group but too slow to get home in a 1 1/8

So I ask who has the fastest time of closing in this group and would you make a bet on that horse? Thank you much for your time and service.

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by ClockerDan

I would like to ask a question to those more qualified than myself - does anyone still use the
3/4 to end of 9f time as a measure for how well the horse will carry himself for 1 1/4 derby?

(I really don't know Dan. What other metric do you have since no one has raced 1.25 miles before? I used it in order to compare closing times from different paces. If a horse that attended a 111 pace could finish the next 3/8ths in 37.xx I would consider that horse over one who ran slower earlier part of the race with the same 37.xx time)

Moyhaman has the fastest mile time out of group but too slow to get home in a 1 1/8

(Fastest mile times in the Marathon method are not measured in mile races and recall that in his lone 9 furlong race he ran poorly. If you forgive that race you only have the 8.5 furlong race from which you can estimate his mile time (8.5 fur time less 6.4 seconds) and the corresponding 6f-9f time, which comes up short of Destin and others, for instance. He could progress in the Derby but with the best data available and a terrible 9f race staring you/me in the face it does not look good to me.)

So I ask who has the fastest time of closing in this group and would you make a bet on that horse? Thank you much for your time and service.

(The best closing time would have to be at or near the projected pace and in raw figures without considering pace or pace pressure concerns you have to look at Destin (37.49), Nyquist (37.72) and Exaggerator (37.64). [The real or projected times are shown on the spreadsheet towards the right side of the page.]

The first two may get involved in the pace and could be compromised; Exaggerator has a lot of other deep closers to contend with but if he runs mid pack he should be able to charge past those in front of him. Closers times are not generally subject to adjustment based on early pace, i.e., their best time usually is their best info, while an early horse can lose final time on a two to one ratio if forced to run faster than earlier races. However, closers who remain their normal lengths back and/or behind the usual number of other horses in slow paced races have to over come early horses that often have faster closing speed than previously shown due to the slow pace.

Exaggerator's history is that he is not afraid to pass horses AND gain lengths throughout his races. That being said I want to see the odds on Majesto,another sustained presser, who improved sharply to just lose to Nyquist in Florida and could be getting better.)

[ClockerDan]

So you would disregard Oscar Nominated @ 37.25 ? Because of the fact it is primarily a turf horse or because he ran his 1 1/8 race on the tapaeta surface. A 1 1/8 is still a 1 1/8
Didn't Animal Kingdom run on tapaeta surface?

[turfsup]

dear clocker i in the process of setting up rdss not sure if it will be ready for work on derby therefore if your using rdss could you let me know not your picks but the top 4 horses on the sustained pace readout in order ? thank for your epertise email is pizzars2yahoo.com

[ClockerDan]

I am NO expert, just a guy who loves the sport of horse racing! I am a newbie to site!
My late father got me hooked years ago and love the thrill whether I win money or not.
Try my best to handicap from what I have learned over the years, that's it though. NO pro
here. I wouldn't want to steer you away from your picks and you wouldn't believe mine.
Good luck and GOD Bless

[Bill Lyster]

Originally Posted by ClockerDan

So you would disregard Oscar Nominated @ 37.25 ? Because of the fact it is primarily a turf horse or because he ran his 1 1/8 race on the tapaeta surface. A 1 1/8 is still a 1 1/8
Didn't Animal Kingdom run on tapaeta surface?

For both reasons and that he ran a mile time that is not in the top twenty. The pace of race he ran against is about 10 lengths slower than projected, plus his lengths back and in his best race he only passed one horse. The Hat said that it took one unit of energy to pass one horse and another unit of energy to make up a length, so no on the win part of ON. Anybody can place in the Derby. Heck Dallas Stewart ran 2nd two times in a row with 20/1 and 30/1 horses that never showed up in the top 10 in the RDSS readouts!. He is the trainer for Tom's Ready this year however.......

[Bill Lyster]

Dan, the Marathon Method was one of The Hat's spot plays. You can read up on it by searching for it in The Matchup section.

There is a stat only slightly altered from a few years back that showed that the Derby winner was in the top three positions at the mile call of the Derby in something like 37 of 41 times, with notable exceptions like Mine that Bird and Giacomo. Other races 10 furlongs or longer hold to that same statistic so one really goes against the flow betting a horse that is not close to the lead making up ground, or on the lead during these Marathons.

Good luck this weekend.

[Bill Lyster]

Dan and everyone else, I wrote this a year ago in support of The Hat's Marathon method:

"When this info was first posted in 2007 all 31 of the past Santa Anita Handicaps [run at 10 furlongs BTW] had been won by horses either first or 2nd at the stretch call. Since that time all 9 subsequent winners have been first or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call and 7 out of 9 were within 0.50 lengths of the lead at the mile call. One winner was 4th by 8 and the other was 6th by 4 lengths.

For the Derby, the original info was 41 out of 44 1st or 2nd at stretch call. Since then 7 of 8 were 1st or 2nd at the stretch call, one was 3rd by 1.5 Lengths (update info 48/52).

I was not the instigator of the 41/44 info, but I did go back as far as equibase allowed. In the last 24 Derbys (back to 1991) 20/24 were within 4.5 lengths at the mile call; 22/24 were either 1st or 2nd at the 9f/stretch call (or within 1.5 lengths). Giacomo and Grindstone were 6th, 2.75 and 4th by 3.5 lengths respectively, at their stretch calls.

Moral of the story is, if you are not on or near lead or in the process of passing a lot of horses you probably will not win the Derby. Deep closers from races with slow mile times are candidates for other than win."

Deviate from these statistics at your own peril...