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Old 09-22-2017, 11:03 AM   #1
Jeebs
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Belmont - Race 7 - 9/22/17

6 1/2F - NYB 3up, Non-winners of $13k twice other than Mdn, Clm, or Str, OR NW3L or Opt Tag $40k

Looks like a race to cast a wide net and shoot for a price. My tiered order came 10-7-8-5, with 1-3 as exotic possibilities.

#10 interested me off strong back form. 10-time winner lifetime will be coming off a long layoff, but there are no world beaters in here. Given some of the non-comparable lines, I went down to Line 5, a strong LRL race going 6F.

#7 I went Line 2. Excused Line 1 was too high up in class and encountered some difficulties. I was on this horse when it won back in Line 2, wire-to-wire. Got claimed off Charlie Baker to Dave Cannizzo, who is strong in his own right. Nothing but improvement here today.

#8 looks like a horse who has been spotted in the wrong type of races and often finds itself getting troubled trips. When properly spotted in sprints, it has run very well. What horse will we see today? Is it a true contender? Price should be right to find out. I ended up going down to Line 9 for a comparable line that wasn't wrong distance, too high in class or off-track.

#5 on Incremental MUG/SCBL dominates the first two calls. Should be in front turning for home. With an off-track and statebred stake near the top, I went to Line 5 for a comparable line. Another horse whose odds are enticing.

#1 (Line 2) and #3 (Line 4) were virtually tied near the bottom of the Primary LS for those who were in contention. #3 rates slightly better on Primary LS but #1's raw BL/BL ended up being a few points better. That said, they did not improve on Supp LS, so I believe that they could be solid filler on the bottom of tickets or if you are casting a net in the late day Pick wagers.

#6, the 3-1 ML favorite, was a mystery to me. The horse always shows speed, and passed a test last out first time vs. winners. It didn't win as it pleased like it did in the maiden breaker and its TE didn't show much improvement. This is also a 3YO vs older. With more pace presence in the field, I felt #6 was a false favorite.

Good luck and skill here!
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Old 09-22-2017, 01:29 PM   #2
Bill V.
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race 7

Horse 1 Runaway Lute 5/1 EP 2 for 7 record
I used line 2. Line 1 is a (+) and last race of that form cycle
I went to line 2 which is a + line shows a very strong 188 BVD following a 28-day rest

Horse 2 Mr. Buff 6/1 Early 2 for 8 life
This one has been off for 173 days Other than it's maiden win at 7 furlongs
this one is a router Its shows 2 wins off layoffs so this one is big?
BVD 161

Horse 3 Samadi Ski 12/1 EP 2 for 11 record
Line 1 is a + paceline, Its the first race back after a 119-day layoff

Horse 4 West Hills Giant 8/1 Presser 4 wins in 43 races lifetime
Comes off a 51-day layoff with a low BVD
Most recent usable + pacelines sprinting Line 4

Horse 5 Sudden Suprise 8/1 Early 9-time winner ! in 17 races!
This early guy loves the winner's circle Line 1 and 2 are both + lines \
I will use line 2 as line 1 is on an off track

Horse 6. Jewel Can Disco 3/1 Early 2 for 5 lifetime
Lightly raced.Starts a new form cycle after a 29-day layoff
BVD is 91 I will use line 1

Horse 7 Rectify 4/1 Early 6 for 20-lifetime
line 1 is a throwout against allowance 85os at Saratoga
looks like just a bad day at black rock trip, Line 2 is a + line so I will use it
off 29 days so today starts a new form cycle BVD 134

Horse 8 Jet Black 20/1 3 for 20 records Presser
Off for 33 days with a 128 BVD ( 3 works in 21 days )
No + recent sprint lines = no line

Horse 9 So Noted
20/1 Sustained 3 for 10
Starts a new form cycle 130 BVD No + recent pacelines

Horse 10 Proper Freud 20/1 Presser 10 for 39 lifetime
This one comes to the big track off a 125-day layoff
Its BVD is only 27 This is not Finger Lakes and this is not 4.5 and 5 furlongs
no line

Horse 11 Giantinthemoonlight
10/1 Presser 2 for 20
Line 1 is a great effort as the first race back after a 216-day layoff
I will rate offline 1


7 2 1


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Old 09-22-2017, 01:35 PM   #3
Jeebs
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Great to see you chime in, Bill! What were your TPRs?
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Old 09-22-2017, 01:39 PM   #4
Jeebs
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Nasty spills in the opener, the latter resulting in the winner being DQd to last. Nik Juarez will certainly earn a fine/suspension for careless riding.
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Old 09-22-2017, 04:04 PM   #5
Jeebs
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10 scratched

With the #10 out, I have 7-8-5 as my primary contenders. The latter two should offer tremendous $$ value.
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Old 09-22-2017, 04:29 PM   #6
Mitch44
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This is a chaos race in which I'll reduce my wager. I have it 5-6-2


I'm alive for the DD with the 6th race, Now going to look at the 8th race for another DD.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 09-22-2017 at 04:39 PM.
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Old 09-22-2017, 04:47 PM   #7
Jeebs
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Win 7, Small Win 5 and 8,

Ex 7-8/1-3
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Old 09-22-2017, 04:47 PM   #8
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Contenders 6-1-3-5-7.
1min to post 6 @2-1 too low let's go with 1-3-5
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Old 09-22-2017, 04:53 PM   #9
Jeebs
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
This is a chaos race in which I'll reduce my wager. I have it 5-6-2


I'm alive for the DD with the 6th race, Now going to look at the 8th race for another DD.


Mitch44
I hope that the monkey had that exacta! Nice job Mitch!
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Old 09-22-2017, 04:59 PM   #10
Mitch44
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COMPLETED: aca42-910ce BEL
#7
$2 Exacta6, WT, 2, 5none $4.00 $0.00
- $4.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 0983a-aa924 BEL
#7
$2 Exacta2, 5, WT, 6none $4.00 $0.00
- $4.00
Claim Winnings

ACCEPTED: a3edf-869f9 BEL
#7
$2 Double2, 5, 6, WT, 1, 3, 6none $18.00 -
-
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 19f9f-6838d BEL
#6
$1 ExactaBX, 1, 6, 11none $6.00 $0.00
- $6.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: ec6dd-cdb2b BEL
#6
$1 Exacta1, 6, WT, 11none $2.00 $0.00
- $2.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 9dee7-b2a25 BEL
#6
$2 Exacta11, WT, 1, 6none $4.00 $0.00
- $4.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: a7bce-c235b BEL
#6
$2 Double1, 11, WT, 2, 5, 6none $12.00 $0.00
- $12.00
Claim Winnings

COMPLETED: 68a2a-74a93 BEL
#6
$2 Double1, 6, 11, WT, 2, 5, 6none $18.00 $145.00
+ $127.00
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