Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Selections
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Selections Post Your Picks - 1 race or a card

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 03-17-2019, 05:21 PM   #21
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Conley I believe his signature contains a link to his site to see picks.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 05:32 PM   #22
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Race 7

1 11 8 2


Nice one again in race 7
I passed up on the super so I could bet a pick 3

The 1 wins 11 hits the exacta

Name:  Tim race 7.PNG
Views: 196
Size:  24.0 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 06:01 PM   #23
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Home

Here are the "table west's" will pays for the race 9 Pick 3

Will watch from home Jim has our $25 ticket.


Name:  Will Pays.PNG
Views: 191
Size:  8.9 KB
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 06:06 PM   #24
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Good luck to you Bill and table West. Pulling for the 1.7,or 11 to give you some bucks.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 06:42 PM   #25
So Cal Al
So Cal Al
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: San Diego/ La Quinta
Posts: 214
Send a message via AIM to So Cal Al
Nice job again, Tim. I love to compare my RDSS2 readouts to your selections. We agree on the top 4 about 99% of the time. With SA shut down, I had to move my play to OP and Parx. AL B.
So Cal Al is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 06:46 PM   #26
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Here is todays' recap. 8 races were capped

2#1s won %4.60,$5.40
3#2s won $4.80,$4.80.$6.40
2#3s won $12.80,$5.60
1#4 won $10.60
TOP 3 WON 7/8 87.5%
1 #4 WON 1/8 12.5%
EXOTIC WINS IN TOP 4
7DDS $28.80,$35.60,$28.60,$20,$13.80.$11.60,$29.60,$46.20
8EXS $49.20,$43,$14.20,$26.40.$8.40,$24,$22.40,$22.80
6 TRIS $80.50,$12.05,$41.55,$9.55.$19.35,$12.75
3 SUPERS $30.50,10.02,$12.19
6 P3S $20.80,$48.80,$14.60,$17.20,$22.50,$29.45
1 P4 $71.45
1P5 $271.85
Hope those who played along made a few bucks.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 06:51 PM   #27
Lt1
Grade 1
 
Lt1's Avatar
 
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,034
Thanks Al. I do move horses up and down the RDSS tiers for non Sartin reasons. Usually not to drastic of a move most of the time but have moved a #5 to 3 and vis versa. Heck I even knocked a #1 out of top 3. Usally works out ok but I do get bit in the butt also.
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify
Lt1 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 07:47 PM   #28
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Hello Bill,


The Monkey is doing OK . Been playing contests and adjusting to those scenarios. Today finished 7th of 115. 3 of the 4 that beat me all had a cap horse, good for $64.00. It came in the 7th at Aqu. # 8 that actually paid $123.50 26.20, don't know how anyone picked that one but they did.Finished 6th in another and 255 of 1,898 against all those on the tour.


So many years of betting two horses its an adjustment along with contest rules. Today had 4 winners and a place of 12 races. These guys generally buy two entries and play all longshots on one and regular on another. If they hit a long shot early they bet favorites to pad their lead. I've only been playing one entry and just picking winners. Maybe next time I'll change and go for all longshots, they seem to be beating me with it.


Bill hope your well and also Dad both health wise and with the horses.


Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 09:08 PM   #29
Jeebs
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Dec 2010
Posts: 909
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Hello Bill,


The Monkey is doing OK . Been playing contests and adjusting to those scenarios. Today finished 7th of 115. 3 of the 4 that beat me all had a cap horse, good for $64.00. It came in the 7th at Aqu. # 8 that actually paid $123.50 26.20, don't know how anyone picked that one but they did.Finished 6th in another and 255 of 1,898 against all those on the tour.


So many years of betting two horses its an adjustment along with contest rules. Today had 4 winners and a place of 12 races. These guys generally buy two entries and play all longshots on one and regular on another. If they hit a long shot early they bet favorites to pad their lead. I've only been playing one entry and just picking winners. Maybe next time I'll change and go for all longshots, they seem to be beating me with it.


Bill hope your well and also Dad both health wise and with the horses.


Mitch44
There’s a lot of game theory involved in contest play. The players that had that cap horse at Aqueduct today were either luckboxing it because they were playing from way behind, or decided that a cheap claiming sprint was the right place to go high when others figured to eat chalk or obvious runners. Handicapping the flow of a contest and the contest standings is as big of a deal as handicapping the horses themselves. It also helps to have situational knowledge when reading the PPs, as familiarity with certain jocks/trainers in certain scenarios or horse patterns could lend itself to a gut feeling that the RDSS number crunching isn’t going to provide you. A few weeks ago in a cheap maiden claimer route at Tampa, I came upon a Rick Creel trained runner ridden by veteran journeyman Gary Wales. I knew from experience that both Creel and Wales have been known to slip a bomb through the backdoor with little to no warning. But with only one entry, I chose a more obvious runner from my handicapping. You can pretty much guess what the final outcome was.
Jeebs is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 03-17-2019, 09:14 PM   #30
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
hi Mitch

I suppose I gave up on playing contest, for some of the reasons you mention,

I never looked at myself as wanting to be the "best"

I just want to walk out of the track with more money than I walked in with.

This seed was planted in me when I was filling out 20 race cycle sheets for Doc.

If I had 12/20 my only goal was to get 13/ 20, then 14/20 etc.

I took a loss in race 7 at AQU. The 7 was my daily double bet.
Sure I was sad to lose. But when, like what you mention, 3 people I am "competing" against
throw in a horse like the 8. I just take a breath, laugh it off and
say to myself, Bill think about this, Did you ever see a horse in the follow-up or a manual with pacelines like that?
The answer is No Way,
But people post wild longshots and take loses day after day
They have the mental ability to PLAY GAMES. I am the polar opposite.
To me, if a horse looks good and the odds are worth a bet, Then I take it.
I would rather churn out some doubles pick 3's pick 4's and 5's
Its all about our individual minds, As I say to my dad all the time
"that's why they make yellow cars"
I also drive him nuts, complaining about the number horses
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 06:16 AM.