E/L change by distance

[Tim Y]

The e/l is, to my mind, the MOST POWERFUL thing we have going that NO ONE ELSE HAS. A few years back I posted a long study I did called e/l relativity which showed that for the MOST PART, earlier e/l's that are reasonable often win at mutuels that are worth it over the form the clouds types that catch the field just about he clubhouse turn the second time around the course.

For example, you have THREE horse fairly close. You the review the relative readouts of those and find their e/l's (this is a route at 8.5 furlongs) -1.4, -4.0, and -12.4 respectively. Who has the better shot? In the long run the earlier the horse the better the shot on dirt. If they are maidens, you can extend the range of early by about 25% more positive than those standard e/l standards for winners as they are learning to run and often quit after showing improving early speed.

Once you have your standards ofr each distacne at each course, remember the differences between the e/l's per distance.

From a real race today at Fort Erie (one sprint, one route) I changed the distances, up and down from the two distances listed (6.0 and 8.5 respectively) and here is how the e/l changes with distance change.

According by distance and starting with an e/l of 9.5 at 6.0 furlongs, the number for 6.5 furlongs decreased by two to 7.5, and down two more (5.5) at 7.0 furlongs. Going the other way, the e/l stayed the same at 9.5 for 5.5 furlongs and was positive by ONE at 10.5 at 5.0 furlongs.

For a route, starting at -10.4 for 8.5f, it shifted more negative by 6 points at 9.0 furlongs to -16.4 and another -5 at 9.5 furlongs becoming -21.4. Going the other ways, and this is tricky, that -9.5 became -13.4 at 8.3 but only -9.4 and 8.0. What should be linear has a glitch in the program at the odd distance of 1 mile 70 yards. Did not calculate 1 mile and 40 isnce it is only really found at the Fair Grounds and the odd one at Tampa.

How to use this: really look at e/ls' shat are close to standard for your track and distance and consider those positive ones that are within about 25% above the norm as possibilities. Remember it is their RELATIVITY that is important.

a better way to view the changes

5.0f 10.5
5.5f 9.5
6.0f 9.5
6.5f 7.5
7.0f 5.5

routes
8.0f -9.4
8.3f -13.4
8.5f -10.4
9.0f -16.4
9.5f -21.4