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Old 03-20-2019, 10:52 AM   #11
Lt1
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Hi KMS. Having 49% in the top 2 is not bad. Focus on getting the winner in your top 3 80% of the time. Don't get hung up on the top 2 only. Let's say you will accept 5/2 as your minimum odds for a win bet. You would bet the one in the top 2 that met that threshold and your 2nd bet would be the overlay of the other 2 in the top 3. Remember odds are the ultimate corollary. Horses in tier 4 & 5 require corollary support and good odds before being bet Just happens I'm looking at GP today. They are off the turf. In race 3 my contenders in order of preference are 23615. I used the following lines
1 line 3
2 line 3
3 line 1
4 line 1
5 line 2
6 line 1
I base my selections on my model and other non Sartin factors.
Tim
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Old 03-20-2019, 11:44 AM   #12
kmspokes
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So Tim, I had all the same lines on 1,2,4,5 but if I can get your insight why pick Line #1 for 3? is it better to take the best Precep # as long as the distance is within 1f than for the exact distance? Then on #6 the distance is same on lines but I had line 3 vs your #1, line 3 has better Precep# and distance the same on both, but these 2 seem to be wash if I plug either in. Rx2 puts #6 higher due to better class I think, I'm thinking experience starts kicking in to know when class out ranks other corollaries? Just trying to understand why #1 would not be your third choice based on corollaries it seems it should be?
Appreciate your patience with me, digging for nuggets of improvement.
Ken
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Old 03-20-2019, 12:30 PM   #13
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Ok on#3 the routes are terrible so I used 1. I did note the 3 is 0-10 at dist so it's shaky right now. Wait to see odds. On the 6 normally line 3 would be the line but in this case it's a lifetime best for an older horse. I have found these types hardly if ever repeat that line so I used L1. As far as ranking the 6 and 1 it's a toss up. The 6 comes off a big win but shows declining speed ratings[going off form?] and the 1 hasn't won in its' last 10. Odds will seal the deal.
Tim
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Old 03-20-2019, 12:41 PM   #14
kmspokes
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Thanks for your insights Tim, Good Luck today !
Ken
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Old 03-20-2019, 12:58 PM   #15
Bill V.
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Race 3

Hi Tim and Ken

I am looking forward to race 3
I have been on horse #6 Grace's Drama either with win bets or parts of horizontals for all 3 of her last 3 wins.

She has been claimed and reclaimed in her last two.

Today she steps up slightly to an Optional Claimer
I won't know till after the race but I wonder if Charles Dickey
protected Grace's Drama from being taken away again, by moving to the OC condition.

The workouts on March 16th earn a Black 118
but as Tim points out, her speed ratings and TPR are going down
in her last 3 wins
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Old 03-20-2019, 01:19 PM   #16
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Hi Bill how you doing today?. I agree this will be a wait and see how the betting goes. Dickey may feel she's going off form but doesn't want to lose her. A pretty consistent animal for the class level
Tim
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Old 03-20-2019, 02:32 PM   #17
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You guys are amazing ! thanks for the insights, boxed the 2/6 :-), so much to learn !
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Old 03-20-2019, 02:45 PM   #18
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Ken for only using this method for 7 months you are doing very well. Don't forget some of the things that Bill and I[as well as others] do comes from years of experience. Once you master the basics you too will start to find little things that ups your game. You can't run until you learn to walk.
Tim
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Old 03-20-2019, 03:14 PM   #19
kmspokes
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No doubt about that, I would have never thought there would be so much to this when I started. It has been a fun journey so far, look forward to continuous improvement!


A question, when they move from Turf to Dirt I tend to avoid because I don't know how to look at. Should I be looking basically at horses that have ran on Dirt before or give ignore since most of the Turf horses scratch if they don't run good on dirt ? In general I would think of looking for a Turf horse that may have early potential than normal?
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Old 03-20-2019, 03:27 PM   #20
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Ken my advice would be to pass these races. What normally happens is the dirt horses get over bet and any turf horses left in usually don't do well. If however you find a turf horse that has run ok on the dirt you could give it a look especially if it has a decent dirt line in its' chart. Why deal with unknowns when you don't have to.
Tim
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