can't change

[Tim Y]

The visually impressive I Want Revenge, UNLESS THIS ONE SOMEHOW CHANGES, will be too far back come Derby day. Look at theose % medians.....Too low for Churchill at 10

[gandalf380]

that is a ridiculous statement without knowing who else is in the field.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by gandalf380

that is a ridiculous statement without knowing who else is in the field.

I will wager, that UNLESS Aqueduct's Wood makes this one improve, this one is STUCK in the same style and will be like SweetNothernsaint and Pyro: a lot of wasted money chasing but never arriving.

[Tim Y]

I recently read a great book about decision making and one of the things the
authors promoted was that many decisions carry too much weight dependent upon emotional factors.

I hope that I Want Revenge runs well, BUT I will wager that a lot of people are
going to be overly impressed with the VISUAL of his Wood rather than the reality of his move against a rather average pace.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

The visually impressive I Want Revenge, UNLESS THIS ONE SOMEHOW CHANGES, will be too far back come Derby day. Look at theose % medians.....Too low for Churchill at 10

hello Tim... everyone:

Tim, your opinions on I Want Revenge (and others) that are based on % Median is strictly a call only on the horse's chances of winning the Kentucky Derby, is that correct??

You could hate a horses's chances of winning the Derby based on % Median but could conceivably like a horse to place or show in the exacta and trifecta bets.

While early, of course, it still looks like a one-horse Derby with one-two win underlays as possible contenders.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by reckless

hello Tim... everyone:

Tim, your opinions on I Want Revenge (and others) that are based on % Median is strictly a call only on the horse's chances of winning the Kentucky Derby, is that correct??

You could hate a horses's chances of winning the Derby based on % Median but could conceivably like a horse to place or show in the exacta and trifecta bets.

While early, of course, it still looks like a one-horse Derby with one-two win underlays as possible contenders.

1 Horse Derby ? Am I missing something obvious

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by reckless

hello Tim... everyone:

Tim, your opinions on I Want Revenge (and others) that are based on % Median is strictly a call only on the horse's chances of winning the Kentucky Derby, is that correct??

You could hate a horses's chances of winning the Derby based on % Median but could conceivably like a horse to place or show in the exacta and trifecta bets.

While early, of course, it still looks like a one-horse Derby with one-two win underlays as possible contenders.

The "syntho preferred" colts (Colonel John, Dominican, Monba) have not done too well unless, like a Street Sense, they have shown other lines that substantiate their abilities on multiple surfaces. 66% is too low a la many other INCLUDING Afleet Alex who came in around 66.6 and ran thrid.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

I recently read a great book about decision making and one of the things the
authors promoted was that many decisions carry too much weight dependent upon emotional factors.

I hope that I Want Revenge runs well, BUT I will wager that a lot of people are going to be overly impressed with the VISUAL of his Wood rather than the reality of his move against a rather average pace.

I agree here Tim, as well, not just per I Want Revenge, but the crowd's over enthusiasm based on their visual and emotional experiences.

The easy manner in which Bellamy Road ran his two races prior to his Kentucky Derby flop had much to do with the over-the-top bubbly contasion of that horse's chances in said Derby, while the numbers told a truer tale: he was a horse that slowed considerably when running down the lane.

Yes, I inderstand that when a horse is in front by many it's tough for us to see this negative aspect (deceleration) of that effort. In truth, he was stopping big time while winning both at Gulfstream and in the Wood Memorial. When the pace quickened and equally important, got crowded in the Derby, Bellamy Road did stop quite suddenly.

[jms62]

You both certainly have the trend on your side. Wood Winners haven't faired so well recently. Most overbet.

[reckless]

Originally Posted by jms62

1 Horse Derby ? Am I missing something obvious

Hi jms:

In my opinion... it is a one-horse Derby so far... Quality Road is probably the only horse worth a win wager come Derby Day.

He won two of the most definitive races horses need to win when prepping for the Kentucky Derby--the Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby. The Derby winners that won or at worse ran very well in these races are mind boggling the past 20-25 years.

Now the same could also be said for the Santa Anita Derby, Wood Memorial, and Blue Grass. These are not just major Derby preps, but they are the only Derby preps to consider, in my opinion.

Throw out the other prep races as if they didn't happen because aside from an aberration here and there, Derby winners don't normally contest and exit these races.

Quality Road not only won these two races, but won them with authority. The quarter-crack issue is the lone caveat and I am personally not going to be influenced by it. If he isn't ready to win on Derby Day, I am confident that the Jerkens' family will not even run in the race; simply put, if he's in the race, then bet him.

The other contenders, both underlays, will be Pioneer of the Nile and Chocolate Candy, the 1-2 finishers of the major prep Santa Anita Derby. Pioneer will be second choice and overbet, and Chocolate Candy will be about 20-1... a great play but an underlay at those odds as well. A possible third contender is Dunkirk, but I know he's a big underlay and sucker bet. He is not a threat as I see the race, so far, as he's high on hype and little on accomplishments.

As I said earlier, I agree with Tim that I Want Revenge's races, while visually impressive, just isn't a contender, and he'll get plenty of action as 3rd or 4th choice.