What factors do Longshots show?

[elocutionist]

I just finished a 200 race study from Gulfstream, Tampa, and Oaklawn. Did not bet any due to the shutdown of racebooks here. I mostly used best preceptor of last 3. Did not use maiden races with more than 1 FTS, or races where 30% were switching surface or distance. Any horse that was in the top 5 in TE, primary LS or RX3 was considered a contender. Used BL/BL for selections making some changes when RX3 top ranked were not in BL/BL top 4.

Rank 1

[elocutionist]

Rank 1 2 3 4 All 4
Winn % 23 22 21 15 81
Avg. Price 8.70 9.8 12.16 13.82 10.85
Profit/Loss .40 31.60 110.7 14.60 157.30
ROI .1% 7.9% 27.7% 3.6% 9.8%


# 1 ranked horses numbers are skewed due to 1 race. On 4/3 the 4th race at Tampa the winner was 15-1 morning line and ranked #1 on BL/BL paid $ 104.40. That doesn't happen often. Other than that race #1 ranked numbers are Avg. price $ 6.58, Loss of $ 104.00 and ROI of -26%.

Phil

[Lt1]

Good survey Phil. Thanks for sharing.
Tim

[elocutionist]

Tim
It was fun and useful for me. I have used several programs over the years and in my opion, RDSS2 is easily the best.
Phil

[mick]

I seldom play longshots to win because they seldom win.

But I do play them underneath in exactas and they place with some regularity. Conley, I would recommend that you read, or perhaps re-read, Doc Sartin's "The 55% Solution." It's in Ted's library on this site and I think it's one of the best things PIRCO ever produced.

[gandalf380]

Conley,

Mick's advice is very sound. I found the 55% solution my favorite of all the Sartin manuals. It changed my way of thinking about exactas and quinellas and it will improve your ability to hit exactas for decent money. I have read it dozens of time and still occasionally read it.

Charlie

[mick]

Originally Posted by gandalf380

It changed my way of thinking about exactas and quinellas and it will improve your ability to hit exactas for decent money.
Charlie

Same with me. On page 16, you'll find one of the most astute statements ever about exactas:
"The contender second most likely to WIN is NOT the contender most likely to PLACE!"

I've done several statistical studies about how often my top 2 win contenders complete the exacta. Depending on my sample, it's between 10% and 20% and when they do run 1-2, it's always a chalky payoff, not worth playing. Usually, I save money on my bets by not playing that "boxed" combination. My favorite pattern is: 1,2,3 over 3,4,5 and 3 over 1,2. Long-term, the 1-2 or 2-1 combination is a money burner.


Just so I don't get called out on this by someone I know who lives in Florida, I'm talking about when my top 2 have low odds. If one or both aren't the low-odds favorites, by all means bet that combination.

[ScottB]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hey Bill check the selections sections. I've posted enough full card selections with results. If doesn't satisfy you there's nothing much else I can do.
Tim

When guy's post 4 horses for every race I would really like to see how they play them to make a profit.

[Lt1]

Hi Scott. For me it's pretty cut and dry. Since I'm a 2 horse wp bettor I simply fo;;ow the Docs wagercapping guidelines and pass races where no such acceptable wagering opportunities appear in the top 3. With exotics I simply play the combos that will basically give me as close to a 50% profit on investment. Also I keep models on each track by dist and surface as well as wagering records.
Tim

[Bill Lyster]

There are several reasons why four contenders should be considered. Done correctly, a rolling daily double, a boxed exacta and boxed pick 3's are very feasible, as long as the expected return nets a positive return over a number of races.

Also based on your read outs no one is saying that all four are WIN contenders. That is up to you to decide through trial and error using good handicapping considerations.

Do some work, download the cards, work the races and find out what works. Nothing like experience to hone the sword.

Regards,

Add: one of the great things about betting exactas and doubles is that most betting site post the probables, so you can see the expected payoffs BEFORE you bet.