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04-16-2020, 11:08 AM | #1 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Sep 2016
Posts: 606
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How Good Is Your Handicapping?
Lt1 and Mitch44 often remind us that we cannot control the prices on winning bets. However, to have a chance to make winning bets, we have to show competence at handicapping a race. Here is a simple formula to "grade" your own handicapping ability:
We know that favorites are currently winning up to 40% of races these days. That implies that 60% of races are won by a horse other than the favorite. So check your bets on NON-FAVORITES: if you are 1 horse bettor and you are winning 25% or more then you are handicapping well. If you are a 1 horse bettor and you are winning 30% or more then you are handicapping GREAT! Remember, these are your results betting non-favorites. Similarly, if you are a 2-horse bettor and you are winning 50% or more betting NON-favorites then you are handicapping well. If you are a 2-horse bettor and you are winning 55% or more betting non-favorites then you are handicapping GREAT! Try this simple test and grade yourself. Good luck. Richard |
04-16-2020, 12:48 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Great post Richard.
The old standard that I learned years ago was a player was considered to be an expert if they won 33% with one horse bets. At that time there were not as many gimmick bets such as EX. Tri etc., win betting was more in vogue in that era. In fact there was only one DD normally on the 1st & 2nd race. Additionally there was fewer favorites winning at that time which also made that objective much more difficult. Your percentages are a very good goal for someone to achieve, particularity with the Sartin Mythology. And the finer points or tools will raise those percentages. I have however gotten away from win percentages and realize that the main objective is to make a profit which is a much more challenging objective. One could win only one race a day and make money. Also I have found that money management is a huge part of success that probably 99% ignore. Additionally we all go through slumps. A couple weeks ago in a contest I had 8 alternate picks win. I just could not believe it and my wife said that was impossible. Well it wasn't. Luckily I bet my top two choices for real money and made a profit that day. Lately my horses are coming in second a lot with some real bad beats in photos. I'm smart enough to not change things and reduce my bets. Those that use the Kelly will also reduce their bets automatically. Other times I surprise myself and can do nothing wrong. Such is the game. Even in professional sports key players have slumps but end the season with very good stats etc. A player should give as much thought to betting as they do their handicapping. They should find just what their good at and capitalize on that by avoiding poor situations. In a contest your forced to play every race but otherwise try to stay out of ugly races with too many legit contenders and races you just can't get a handle on. Horizonal bettors should think very seriously about leaving out a favorite. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 04-16-2020 at 12:52 PM. |
04-18-2020, 11:27 AM | #3 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 1,676
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Richard & Mitch, great posts.
I agree with Mitch that very few think about money managment. With RDSS most of us should be able to get at least 80%+ winners in our top 4 contenders. From these final contenders , IF we follow Docs advice on betting, I feel there is no reason that we should all be able to turn a profit. Rmath |
04-20-2020, 07:00 PM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Aug 2019
Posts: 111
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A decent handicapper should have a minimum ROI of 50 cents on every wagered dollar.
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