Has this been done lately, or is it the 20 race cycle?

[pktruckdriver]

Has anyone tested and passed this Doc favorite?

I have not yet tried it but will soon, would anyone like to do so also?

[pktruckdriver]

This is more like the 20 race cycle test, but it seems like an honest test.

[hansend]

The second one is the one I was doing in my twentry race cycles. Haven't been able to start a new one yet. Not sure when I'll be able to, but the results were pretty much even (up a couple bucks after 40 races), which for staring out is where you would want to be in my opinion.

It was a very comfortable way to start out for me.

[pktruckdriver]

Originally Posted by hansend

The second one is the one I was doing in my twentry race cycles. Haven't been able to start a new one yet. Not sure when I'll be able to, but the results were pretty much even (up a couple bucks after 40 races), which for staring out is where you would want to be in my opinion.

It was a very comfortable way to start out for me.

You say you did the 2nd choice of 100 on 20 races and came up about even, could you elaborate a little bit more, please.

Didi you use top 3 contenders, and bet only the best 2 value bets or bet what you thought might win and then the value play as the 2nd wager??

It would be nice to do a few 20 race cycles with a few different people, using the same cards and maybe the same races, ones we decided should or could be played, according to Doc's suggestions, which I saw somewhere and clipped for placement here...

[hansend]

I did the best two according to the model of the track that I had. If I were to have no model then I would have nothing but to go off the V/DC. In both cases I tried to make a decision on whether or not I thought the favorite would be challenged enough to be defeated and if I did not like the favorite's odds. (I had no problem betting at 2-1 or 9/5 strong favorite as $3 to win still produces a nice profit.)

Pktruckdriver, I would be willing to join you on your journey of a couple twenty race cycles. I will have to put this disclaimer for me. For the next six weeks I will be traveling a lot. I will let you pick the tracks, however I may have to make my bets off of the morning line and unable to do it the true "wagercapping" style. Which I am perfectly comfortable doing that. I will probably have the time in the evenings to do cards for the next day.

If you find the rules posted and want to start picking a track (and even races if you want to micro manage that as well) go ahead. I suggest we then make our picks and post them in the selections thread, with our thoughts typed out, so others may have the ability to see and assist us. My one rule that I would ask to be included (or maybe the only rule we have) is that we do not play maiden races. All other races we make the decision to either pass or play until we hit our twenty, the same twenty, so we can compare apples to apples.

Let me know if this sounds reasonable to you.

Derek

[pktruckdriver]

Derek, thank you for the reply

I am not traveling , but working 12-15hr days, so except for Thursday and Friday, and sometimes Sunday, I will be busy working, and have little time, an hour or 2 a day , but still I would be willing to try it in that time, thou...let me know

But with this said, I still wish to do a 20 race cycle, so lets us decide how we can do this , maybe do it on Thur and Fri, a few tracks to help give us the needed, 10 or so races a day, and no maidens, but I was explained that some older Maiden races also have enough Pacelines to handicap, and have no firsters in them, but we can still just say no to Maidens , as I am very flexible, and thankful for you doing this, I think it is a great learning Opportunity.

I have no problem with doing ML, but if we do them on my days off, then I may wait till Post time odds , but this should give us something else to look at and learn from, I think.


Maybe AP OR HOL OR DELAWARE, who knows, wensday may be different than thursday, not sure, but we can figure it out.

My woorking hours are about 3am or so to 4,5,6 or 7pm, never really sure when I am done for the day, sorry.

Thanks again, patrick

[hansend]

That sounds fine with me. I along with everyone else would say that is what is ideal when you can be there at post time so I would highly recommend doing that if you can. I just did not want you to get confused if I posted all of mine at one time in the morning because I may not be able to be there at post time.

If you truly can be available on Thursday and Friday then this is my analysis of the situation.

I suggest we do either EVD or BEL or both on the 15/16th.

I believe we should play the same tracks and not jump from track to track to start out with. So with that in mind BEL, CRC, EMD, EVG, HP, LS all had racing cards on those days. HP and LS both have winning % favorites of 40-45% so I threw those out. I then visited HANA's rankings to determine which of these we should play using overall and WPS % ranking since that is the pool we will be betting into as well as a quick glance at the cards. CRC rated poorly in both rankings by HANA. EMD ranked poor overall, but respectable (considering all others) in WPS, EVG ranked respectable in both and BEL ranked ahead of EMD in both categories. With that analysis I decided both BEL and EVG would be good choices.

The cards for those to tracks look like this for playable races (non-maidens)
15:
BEL - 1, 4, 5, 7, 8 (5 total)
EVG - 2, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 (7 total)
(12 total)

16:
BEL - 1, 2, 3, 4, 6, 8 (6 total)
EVG - 1, 2, 4, 6, 8, 9 (6 total)
(12 total)

The forecast for both looks good so far.

So let me know what you want to do this. Do you want to play them both each day or just one of them each day? If you are off different days you know for sure let me know and I'll do the same analysis to figure out which ones to play. If you elect to want to play them both, maybe we "cheat" this time around and just play all 24 of them and have a 24-race cycle. Otherwise I think EVG starts later than Belmont so the last 4 at EVG would be a new cycle, but if next week we do this again we may pick some different tracks.

Let me know what you think as I a looking forward to it!

Derek

[Bill V.]

Patrick

I have done the second one many times
Its something I think can help most Sartin users. I highly recommend
this procedure I find it to be profitable and a wake up to look beond the top two choices You should do well following basic Sartin guidelines
and then betting your top two but I do miss many longshots in rank 3 -4

Bill

[pktruckdriver]

Ok, Great job and then it will be as you state Bel and EVD.

Now Bill, I think the top 2 or the top 2 value of the the top 3-4, depending on post time odds and also on the TE and if it is just way higher than the other horses, then it is always a must play, I think, well gotta run, as I am late already

Patrick

My wager will be made on Youbet, and can be posted for examination easily enough.

[Ted Craven]

Hi Guys,

Sounds like a fun, semi-realtime happening on Thursday and Friday! And all the more focused for concentrating on Win (or Win/Place) bets only.

Patrick, I highly recommend using Derek's WagerDecisionForm Excel sheet to record your wagers (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showpos...80&postcount=2 - the 1st one). If you don't have Excel to open it, give a copy to a local Kinko's and have them print up some forms for you. When you're done, post the results here using that form (get Kinko's to scan your paper to PDF if need by and post the PDF). Write it all down!

If I can join in for some of it, I'll be there.

Good luck, have fun!

Ted