FPLR - Evangeline Downs - Race 5 - Saturday 7/30/16

[Mitch44]

I should have played this race and put more time into and do what I normally do. I just considered it another race and my real focus as a formal paratrooper was watching this sky diver jump from 25,000 feet, without a parachute and land into a net going 120 MPH .WOW!!! Talk about some ba--s. This came on at 8:00pm and he jumped at about 8:40 about the time of the race.

Oh well I was quickly over it after seeing the results. You can't let this stuff live in your mind. Even when playing back to back races , if you do it'll effect your next race. I'll get another to make up for it. Onward and upward.
Mitch44

[MikeB]

Originally Posted by DaveEdwards

Thanks Lads,

Obviously enjoyed watching this race, even if I did have to stay up to approaching 2:00am to watch it!

The EVD website has replays too!

[cigar]

I am late to the party, did not get to this race until today. After I finish my write up will view chart. Well I am still a STUDENT learning this game! I do not play long layoff. Congrats to all who caught the winner.

Waiting on the Master to share his taught. Thanks Rich!

1. What is the Projected Pace: #2 - 22.9 - 46.8

2. who is FPLR: #2

3. Do Tandems help you in any way with Contenders selections: YES

4. Who is Early: #1-4-5-7-9-10

5. Who is OTE: #2-3-6-8

6. Are they runner who can run both styles? YES - 1-2-7-8-9

7. What are the poser line of the contenders: 6 Power Line (PL) #2, 7 PL #3 and 9 PL #1

8. How are you wagering - 2 Horse win

9. Best value bet #9

10. Best Early 9, Best OTE 6

11. Best Value bet of each of the 2 categories: 9 - 6

12. Did the bet come to you quickly? YES. Was is very hard to work this race? NO

WIN 9-6

Looking back the winner was in my OTE Selection

[The Pook]

Why was EVD5 used as an example for application of FPLR? Basically if you can project a pace from Early runners you go from there. There are at least two Earlies 9,10 here which sets up a 22+ and 45+ pace. That would be your starting point.

However if you have no definite early horses than you look at FPLR. And of course you always look at FPLR for something unusual like an early-typish horse that gains positions and lengths through the first two calls. 9 led but did not gain lengths or positions through the first two calls. What does FPLR do for you here?

Why would Mark choose a race in which he had so little confidence. One of the Earlies (the 10) was off a long layoff. So you are guessing as to whether he is the same horse and you are hoping that he supplies some early tension. Turns out he did. At the projected pace.





In either case the 8 was un-gettable with the Matchup. I mean look at him. He has never been competitive against the projected pace.





I am not surprised that Mark did not have him. He is a matcher. Other OTE's looked better. Some guys had him. There are other ways and things that get you to the 8.....And of course you can point out this and that as reasons that the 8 took it after the race.

This was a tough race with too many questions. I don't see how it was supposed to illustrate the FPLR concept and I don't see this as being a race that Matching horses would get as a winner.

Pook

[delayjf]

I don't see this as being a race that Matching horses would get as a winner.

I tend to agree. As I redline the hell out of this race, the one thing that stands out for me is that the speed figures (on average) that this horse earned as a 3 year old in 2015 are competitive or superior to those speed figures earn by the rest of the field in 2016. Horses normally improve from their 3 year to their 4 year old campaign, so if one could project this horse to improve, from a speed figure perspective, he would be superior.

The lay off is problematic and I don't know what kind of works this horse had coming off the long layoff. When you consider that the jockey and the trainer are winless at the meet, it appears the connections bet this horse down to 5-1. IMO, this is not the type of horse the public would back.

[Mitch44]

The horses M/L was 3-1 so going off at 5-1 it wasn't bet down. Fans really bet any top 3 pick on the program. As a 4 year old he does have some upside as compared to many of the older horses in this race. This horse easily would project to be in the top 3. One must be careful to weigh too heavily on SR and time. Its like asking a clm. horse that runs a 45 110 to beat a stake horse that runs 45 111.0. I believe even with the matchup the race was gettable.
mitch44

[Mark]

Over the years I have found EVD the source of exceptional mutuels. One of the reasons is that there are a lot of private training facilities all over the area. Another is that there are many small barns with a few horses and trainers and owners bet to supplement their purse winnings. A few years ago when I was just getting my feet wet, all I did was play horses off their POWER LINES and I doubled my bankroll.
So that is why I play the horses, to augment my income and have fun. I am not like most of you in that I view layoffs particularly the 200+ day variety as POSITIVE. Who is going to pay $300 -$500 bucks a month to keep a horse on the farm? Plus Vet bills and stall and trainer fees to bring the horse back to the track? Are you going to do it if the horse has no potential when he returns to racing? I think not!!
Now tell me, when do horses pay good to great mutuels? I could name several but one for sure is off a layoff or one or two races off the layoff. These trainers and owners have to pay all those bills and they aren't going to invest all that money for a $6.00 winner. The confidence the connections had to thump the #8 horse down to 5/1 was proven by his huge win!!! Jim Bradshaw urged, pleaded and argued with people to use all 10 pp lines. I made the cardinal mistake of getting locked into a horse #6 and a little less #3 and I missed the #8's layoff return line off a 300+ day layoff where he won for fun. That was well over a year ago 400 and something days and if you just look at the speed figures, you can see in the interim he improved. Now he is a fully mature 4 year old, I don't know his birth month but if he is like many and born in March or April, he is a real 4 year old. So 1). did the horse win his first lifetime start or did he win off a similar layoff? 2) Did he exhibit the Running style which would be required by today's Match Up? YES -YES.
I made the #9 an E and the #2, #4, #10 and unfortunately the #8 EPs. If you followed the Hat Check blog Richie talked and gave numerous examples of what he called 3 Matching Earlies spot play. On several occasions he explained what he looks for depending on the number of Earlies. You have to account for their positions at the 1st Call!!! So I was looking for a horse that was at best in 6th position at the 1st Call. That's why I ended up on the #3 and #6 they were 7th and 9th at the 1st call. But subsequently when I had lost the race I went back and looked at the #8. Off his second lifetime start, off a 336 day layoff he was 6th at the 1st call and ran sustained for nearly a 2 length win. Now when you look at the #10. In 4 of his 5 lifetime starts he breaks #1. In his first lifetime start he runs 21.9 -46.1 in his 3rd he runs 2 by 1/2 length against a 21.8 -45.5 and wins. In his last start off a 196 day layoff in the slop at a statebred NW-3L Allowance, he breaks last and runs up the track. Doc Sartin always talked about the "preponderance of evidence". I don't know how anyone can look at this horse and think for a second that this is not the fastest Early horse in the field and 2 to 3/5ths of a second faster than anyone else. This is what made the race interesting to me. This horse who had never won over 5f would gut the other earlies as they chased him but the layoff and potential distance limitations convinced me that the race would run OTE. That meant that there was a better than average potential for a price and that's why I handicap. I will not bet horses less than 5/1 to win.
Handicapping is all about perceived risk-reward. You experience is what levels the playing field. You had to make a number of decisions in this race mostly around layoffs but that is the essence of handicapping. The Match Up is not so narrow a methodology that it cannot accept these situations. One of the main tenets is Variegation. If you didn't call the race OTE you had no chance. When you do you have to find the running style that is advantaged. There were 3 S horses in the race and 2 ran first and second. The other my bet walked out of the gate after his jock refused to ride him requiring a last minute jock change. I guess what I am trying to say is that you can't get caught up in the perfect scenario. This is a typical race at EVD but it was clear that there was an imbalance of early runners with some serious flaws.

[Mark]

BTW, I bet this race #6 win/place and an exacta box #1, #3 and #6. Not a prime bet but a substantial one.
My handicapping partner who mostly plays exotics had the #8-#3-#1 twice with $.50 cent trifectas. He took over $1800 out of the race!

[delayjf]

The horses M/L was 3-1 so going off at 5-1 it wasn't bet down.

Good Point, what kind of works did he have?

I missed the #8's layoff return line off a 300+ day layoff where he won for fun.

Another good point - I missed that.

[Mitch44]

I had no idea delayjf as it wasn't posted and only used what was available.
mitch44