Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...)
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 12-31-2018, 01:47 PM   #1
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,082
Santa Anita is running pretty chalky

So far in the first four days of racing the top four odds choices have won 36 of 39 races!!!

Odds on horses have won 5 of 11 races.

The top four odds horses have won 25 of 39 exactas and only one paid in three figures because two horses basically tied as 4th odds choice finished 1-2. Most of the exactas paid less than $15 and a lot were under $10.

I am playing horizontally for small amounts.
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-01-2019, 11:31 AM   #2
Bill V.
The egg man
 
Bill V.'s Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 9,245
Horses

Happy New Year Bill

Yes indeed, also the track is running very much EARLY
So far for older sprinters look for % med at between 68.50 to 69.25
For older Routers 68.01 68.50
For older Routers 66.25 to 66.80

Best of skill

BIll
Bill V. is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-01-2019, 11:40 AM   #3
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,082
Quote:
Originally Posted by Bill Lyster View Post
So far in the first four days of racing the top four odds choices have won 36 of 39 races!!! (Actually 37 of 39!!!)

Odds on horses have won 5 of 11 races.

The top four odds horses have won 25 of 39 exactas and only one paid in three figures because two horses basically tied as 4th odds choice finished 1-2. Most of the exactas paid less than $15 and a lot were under $10.

I am playing horizontally for small amounts.
After day 5:

43/47 top four final odds win

30/47 exactas include the top four final odds

No change in the odds on - 5/11 win

Last edited by Bill Lyster; 01-01-2019 at 11:42 AM. Reason: stat chg
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2019, 11:08 AM   #4
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,082
Defining my terms

Just for the record, for this study i am considering any horse going off at 1.10/1 as odds on;

1) because at 1.1 the odds board would show even money odds;
2) no telling what the odds were one minute from post time

I am using odds from the race charts. So if a horse is 2/1 and another is 2.3/1, both of these horses would record as tied unless you were in a place to be able to see the exact amounts bet to win on each horse. Of course if one horse was 2/1 and the other 2.5/1 one would be ranked higher than the other.

Captain Obvious signing off....
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-04-2019, 11:49 AM   #5
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,082
SA day six and some GP

At SA the top four betting choices have won 49/57 races - 86% and have figured in 35/58 - 60% of all exactas. "Odds on" have won 5/12 for you horizontal players.

At GP since 12/19818 - 13 race cards
The top four betting choices have won 109/136 races - 80% and have figured in 72/136 exactas - 53%. Odds on = 21/32. But there have been a lot of high teens winners and place horses and some great exactas and place prices if you can figure it out.

I used to keep morning line stats and they can be telling, but you need to know who is doing them and if they change line makers from meet to meet. Some are much better than others.

A couple of years ago, the GP line maker hit something like 89% of his top four choices as winners, whereas other tracks line makers hit about 75+%.

I have nothing current on this having been focused on top four final odds horses.

Much good luck to you all.

Last edited by Bill Lyster; 01-04-2019 at 11:50 AM. Reason: added odds on info
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 01-09-2019, 10:19 AM   #6
Bill Lyster
Grade 1
 
Bill Lyster's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,082
As on January 6th races

SA 75/85 top 4 betting final odds win: 88%; 56/85 top four win exactas, 6/15 Odds on choices win.

GP - 132/168 top 4 win - 79%; 92/168 top four exactas - 55% 25/41 Odds on - 61%;
Bill Lyster is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Keeneland and Santa Anita 10-7-18 CheckMark Selections 9 10-08-2018 01:53 PM
Santa Anita Opening Day CheckMark Selections 11 09-30-2018 11:46 AM
Santa Anita - use Code: SA Ted Craven RDSS2 / FAQ's 1 09-28-2012 06:44 PM
Santa Anita Eyes Dirt Surface fasteddy General Discussion 0 05-22-2010 06:13 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2019, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 12:36 AM.