Sword Dancer Marathon / Saratoga Saturday - Pace and Cap

RichieP · 08-14-2009, 07:06 PM

Tomorrow's Grade 1 Sword Dancer at the Spa going 12f turf.

Hat's Matching concepts for this race type can be found here:
http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2026

Here are the race conditions and entries showing Apv and Class rating

RichieP · 08-14-2009, 07:08 PM

the field

RichieP · 08-14-2009, 07:10 PM

..,

cdax · 08-15-2009, 11:01 AM

I'll be betting the #3 and using 3,9,10 in the pick4.

gs

chris

Bill Lyster · 08-15-2009, 03:18 PM

Looks like 3 on lead; his last was a little improvement over the previous. I think the presser is the 5 whose TE is highest, but both the 3 and 5 have E/L's close to zero or a little negative, so I think they are suspect.

Looking at the 5 he is peaking right now with two superb efforts in last three. He broke maiden on turf after checking in stretch lost maybe 3-4 lengths, but still made up ground to win, so turf should not be a problem. He was pressing before the check only about 2 L off lead, so I think he will be competitive today and probably gets first run on the tiring Lauro (3) and looks like a price. The mile extract from that maiden win is 136.8 and looks to have been lower without the problems, so without the two to three length check up might have made him close to 136. Place horse at a price and a win contender.

The 8 is a mystery horse at this pace, but coming from the tandem with the 10, who once ran 134.9 against a similar pace at 8.5 furlongs, I'm keeping him. The 8 has won or been competitive in several group 1 races and won twice at 12 furlongs. Could reverse tandem in this repeat, if pace can be handled. These two look to run 3rd or 4th behind the 3 and 5 and should be positioned well for the final run.

The one is good enough to repeat last year's win and at 136.3 in a 9f race that finished under 148, he's good but his run looks to be a little late against this pace or similar -my guess is 3rd is best place for today, unless pace is boggy.

For win I like 5, 8 and 10 with the 3 for place.

Good luck to all.

Bill

RichieP · 08-15-2009, 08:06 PM

Result is bombs away

Winner is pretty much 1st horse I threw out

Congrats to those who cashed

08-14-2009, 07:06 PM	#1
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Sword Dancer Marathon / Saratoga Saturday Tomorrow's Grade 1 Sword Dancer at the Spa going 12f turf. Hat's Matching concepts for this race type can be found here: http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2026 Here are the race conditions and entries showing Apv and Class rating Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

08-14-2009, 07:08 PM	#2
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	the field Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

08-15-2009, 03:18 PM	#5
Bill Lyster Grade 1 Join Date: Feb 2006 Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar" Posts: 2,418	Sworddancer analysis Looks like 3 on lead; his last was a little improvement over the previous. I think the presser is the 5 whose TE is highest, but both the 3 and 5 have E/L's close to zero or a little negative, so I think they are suspect. Looking at the 5 he is peaking right now with two superb efforts in last three. He broke maiden on turf after checking in stretch lost maybe 3-4 lengths, but still made up ground to win, so turf should not be a problem. He was pressing before the check only about 2 L off lead, so I think he will be competitive today and probably gets first run on the tiring Lauro (3) and looks like a price. The mile extract from that maiden win is 136.8 and looks to have been lower without the problems, so without the two to three length check up might have made him close to 136. Place horse at a price and a win contender. The 8 is a mystery horse at this pace, but coming from the tandem with the 10, who once ran 134.9 against a similar pace at 8.5 furlongs, I'm keeping him. The 8 has won or been competitive in several group 1 races and won twice at 12 furlongs. Could reverse tandem in this repeat, if pace can be handled. These two look to run 3rd or 4th behind the 3 and 5 and should be positioned well for the final run. The one is good enough to repeat last year's win and at 136.3 in a 9f race that finished under 148, he's good but his run looks to be a little late against this pace or similar -my guess is 3rd is best place for today, unless pace is boggy. For win I like 5, 8 and 10 with the 3 for place. Good luck to all. Bill Last edited by Bill Lyster; 08-15-2009 at 03:19 PM. Reason: completed a thought on the five

08-15-2009, 08:06 PM	#6
RichieP Grade 1 Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 7,014	Result Result is bombs away Winner is pretty much 1st horse I threw out Congrats to those who cashed Attached Images __________________ "Grampy I'm talking to you!"

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