Sunday Woodbine Race 6 - TM 106 Race Class

[RichieP]

Here is tomorrow's 6th from Woodbine going 6f on the Polytrack.

Best of luck/skill to all who test the waters

[RichieP]

...

[PeteC]

Another good race Rich...

As for the early pace scenario, I labeled the 6 as a "Wild E" type. I labeled the 2,3, and 5 as E/P.

The 6 is clearly faster than the other E's but has stopped on its own in the last two races. Last race was against a similar pace to what it has handled before and it as a tandem race. So, I will look for this horse to stop again and create an OTE set up. I will look for an OTE runner who can win or finish very close against about a 22.0 44.0 pace.

#1 looks to fit the bill. Line 3 jumps out at me (3-3-2-2) against 21.8 43.8. I also see other successful races against a similar pace.

#1 beat #2,3 and 6 in that tandem race 102 days ago so I eliminated them.

I also eliminated 4 based on having not faced or run well against today's pace.

#5 beat #1 last time out but is an E/P that will have to deal with #6 early which I feel will be too much too handle.

#7 lost narrowly to the 1 in the last race and is my second choice. I looked at 1C position (7th and 5th) in lines 3 and 7 which have 1C times close to today's pace. When compared to lines 3 and 8 for the 1 (3rd position both times at 1C) it looks like the 1 will be closer to the pace and is my top pick.

[Bill Lyster]

I think its between the 1 and 6 but offer a little different opinion. The six needs open lengths of at least 2 to win. Who can push the 6, well one time the 2 ran 21.8- and took the lead in 44.3 - the rest of the time he presses slower.

The 6 has been off 102 days, normally not a good thing; but it won when fresh off a 200+ layoff earlier in its career. The 6 and 1 have actually met three times - the race 102 days ago, another 175 days ago and another 196 days ago and the 6 finished ahead of the 1 two times out of the three. The time that the 6 lost it was forced to run less than 44 to the half. It was also the 4th race in the cycle for the 6 horse and the last race prior to the current race. On balance I don't think the 6 gets pushed here.

the other tandem race is between the 1, 5 and 7. The 1 and 5 have run against the fastest paces, will have to run off today's pace in order to do well here. I would favor the 1 against today's pace.

My primary pick is the 6, keyed exacta wise to the 1 and 5. the 5 beat the 1 last out. The more I think about this race the less I like it.

The 6 is good off layoffs, but layoffs this long win less than 5% of the time, the 6 should not be pushed early here, but the trainer is 1/35 (and its probably this horse mind you). I think a win bet on the 6 would have to be a greater than 4/1 to make any kind of sense.

[Seven Furlongs]

I agree with Bill, I'm not a fan of this race either as the match-up issues you have to solve aren't so easy. I'll go at this unsystematically.

Horses I do not think will contend:

-7 P/S General Brock. Likes this time of year, but any time the first fraction is 22.3 or less it expends too much energy early to close at the end. Might be good exacta or trifecta material, but not for the win.

-5 P Artic Fern. Last few works are somewhat off compared to the two works previous to the last race. Form may be trending down. Last race was only a 4 horse field, so had few tactical problems to negotiate/solve in that Stakes race.

-4 P Sweet Ducky. I have no clue on this horse. Only two starts this year, why? Plus, its Total Energy numbers seem low.

-2 E/P Macias. Will most certainly bounce back from that last race, though even that race showed a power move of sorts from 1st to 2nd call, so it wasn't all terrible. Still, at a projected second call of 43.8-44, it won't be a factor for the win.

Those I like:

-3 P/S Paso Doble. I am haunted by that May 1st Paceline, so it can close against a fast early pace. Hard to throw out.

-6 E Essence Hit Man. The Power of a small nuclear reactor fuels those legs for the first two calls. After that, some kind of meltdown usually begins. Hard to guess what kind of form will emerge after the layoff. Works look like it has form, but just how good?

-1 P/S Signature Red. A Nice horse, but would have to revert to the form that it had 17 April and the 20th of November last year to most likely beat Essence Hit Man. Another red flag is that its only win is on Turf this year, so intuitively, me and my gut say that the horse will not win.

I guess in conclusion, I'd say #3 Paso Doble for the win, though that is based on the guess that Essence Hit Man misfires a bit and cannot wire the field.

[alydar_ David]

Some well reasoned thoughts presented. All I can say with certainty is #5 Arctic Fern will be my key for exotics.

[partsnut]

I have to agree with Bill Lyster and Zip Zap.
1 & 6
I think the 6 might be a touch stronger then the 1.
The race sets up for an early type (13X1)
I ran it through Quadrater and here are the readouts:

[Seven Furlongs]

No scratches, so the race stands as is.

[delmarscott2004]

Good Morning
I'm looking at the 1-6-2-5- in that order . The early being the 6 with the 1 , 2, 5 as late .
Creative trifecta if the odds are o/k.

Scott

[Capcondo]

The six will definitely have the lead. He can run 21.9 or 22.0 and still win with a 2L lead at the first and second call (he won with a .5L lead at the second call one time but I'm going to discount that).

I don't think a E/P or P is going to beat him. It's going to take an S type horse who has handled fast fractions. I land on the 7 who has handled 21.9 twice I believe and run well from the 5th and 7th position.

The 7 is my pick.