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Old 06-13-2020, 09:58 AM   #1
mnl97
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First 20 race cycle

Below is my first recorded 20 race cycle. All races are on dirt from Churchill Downs. I bet $3 on my primary choice and $2 on my second choice and recorded BL/BL and VDC. I almost always bet against low odds favorite. I started with the RDSS selected pacelines and changed them if I needed to go past 3 lines to get best comparable distance, surface and track conditions. I referred to Preceptor on all line selections

I bet a total of $100, $5 per race. The return was $155.40 for a gain of $55.40. I won 7 out of 20 races or 35%. This is much, much better than I have done in the past. It may be an anomaly.

The biggest take away for me is that if I had bet $3 on every VDC=1 horse and $2 on every VDC=2, the return would have been $235.70 for a profit of $135.70. This would increase the winners to 14 of 20 races bet.

This confirms the power of VDC. On the next 20 race cycle I plan to bet based on VDC. If low odds favorite is VDC=1, I'll pass the race. Otherwise I'll bet $3 on VDC=1 horse and $2 on VDC=2. I'll stay with dirt races at CD if possible.

The results seem to be too good to be true. I hope it is repeatable.

I would appreciate any observations, improvements,constructive criticism, etc. you might have. This is a wonderful program and a great group of teachers. Thanks to all of you that have help me.
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:19 AM   #2
rmath
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Mike

Mike you had 20 wins in the top 5 VDC and 18 were in your top 4 VDC ( 90% ).
These are great results and I wish you continued success.
Doc would be proud of you.
Keep doing what you are doing.
Your friend
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:25 AM   #3
Lt1
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Mike Doc always recommended betting 2 horses per race. Your 2 horse bets show an excellent return. And yes betting 2 horses a race can and does let you win 65-70% of your bets over time if you stay consistent in your approach. Wishing good skill in the future.
Tim
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Old 06-13-2020, 11:40 AM   #4
Mitch44
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Congrats Mike you've come a long ways. I would suggest you Track RX3 also as it gets a bevy of winners. While it gets a good amount of winners the prices are lower than V/DC . Go back over the cycle you just completed for RX3 and compare results.


Keep doing what your doing and keep in touch.


Mitch44
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Old 06-13-2020, 02:35 PM   #5
Ted Craven
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Nicely done Mike! VDC sometimes has tied ranks, by design. If you haven't encountered that yet, you might want to track the result of betting 60% on the VDC Rank #1 which also matches the higher BL/BL rank and 40% on the other VDC rank #1. This will be a lower BL/BL rank (due to the composite of Primary Factors being lower ranked) but is often what we call a 'Binder improver' after our late founder Bill V ('Binder') who noticed that such horses have a high correlation with Late Energy ratings (F3, LPR, L/ep,TS+F3) which is what helps the VDC formula 'improve' its otherwise lower BL/BL rank.

My anecdotal observation is that such 'alternate' VDC rank #1 horses when they appear, often pay noticeably better.

Another idea you can investigate is - instead of betting 60/60 on VDC #1 / VDC #2 (or co-VDC #1) - instead simply bet 50/50 on each with the proviso that you'll at least breakeven on the lower odds horse. This way, instead of having only 40% on the 2nd ranked (and usually higher odds) horse, you'll have 50% of your bet on it. Your records will tell you comparatively how often that 2nd horse wins compared to the 1st horse, and what your payoff would have been.

Dick Mitchell used to argue with Doc, insisting that his recommended 60/40 dutch should be the other way round: 60% on the higher odds horse (more typically a lower ranked VDC) and 40% on the lower odds horse (more often the higher ranked VDC) - so you'd have more money bet on better odds horses. Doc however was always mindful of the psychological/emotional state of his clients and horse players in general who tend to get cold feet and lose resolve in the face of lower hit-rates and longer runouts.

Hence the 60/40 he recommended, to preserve mental health and keep you in the game longer. However, once you know how to ride the bicycle (and disassemble and repair and rebuild it) you can then remove the training wheels, add racing stripes, perform acrobatics ... (e.g. bet 50/50 or other ratio).

Just food for thought. Keep up the diligent good work!

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Old 06-13-2020, 05:03 PM   #6
tom
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Over a 50% ROI - EXCELLENT!

The prices in your sheet show you are not afraid to back up your work no matter what the public thinks.

We have a word for that....WINNER!
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Old 06-13-2020, 08:14 PM   #7
rdiam
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I would second the suggestion made by Ted about betting 50-50 when making 2-horse bets. Just make sure your lower odds horse is going off no lower than 2-1 so the return on that bet will "hedge" your higher odds bet. You will make more $ this way.

If your lower odds horse is going off below 2-1 but still above 3-2 consider using that horse in an exacta (use guidelines set forth in the "50% Solution).

If your lower odds horse is going off below 3-2 but at least 1-1 consider a one horse win/place bet if this horse stands out above the field.

Pass betting a horse or the race if you cannot receive at least 1-1 on the win side.

Richard
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Old 06-14-2020, 11:58 AM   #8
mnl97
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Thanks for the great feedback.. I need it.
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Old 06-15-2020, 09:34 PM   #9
mnl97
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Cd 29 race cycle evaluation

I'm having fun evaluating data I've collected on 29 CD dirt races. My first comparison was between BLBL and VDC for 20 races and I shared that with the group. It was suggested I look at RX3 so I did. I also added 9 more races and three more fields that have superior results to the original three. F3POR#, TSPOR# AND TSF3+#. I would appreciate your thoughts on this.
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Old 06-16-2020, 11:34 AM   #10
Mitch44
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Hi Mike,


I would not consider the 3 fields you added to be of significant importance. The reason is the POR does not consider todays Match Up. Which is going to be different. It also considers many different match ups, depending on the number of horses in the race.

If you have 12 horses you have 12 POR's and everyone of them is going to be different than today's match up. (naturally barring Tandems)

In RDSS all we have is POR and nothing as to how the horse performed against that POR. Sure we have POH but that is a very limited gauge and not very refined.

POR alone can be very deceptive such as this years Triple Crown races or any perhaps G1 races. Just because the horse was entered and ran in those races means nothing. In a 12 horse field of a G1 there is only one winner and someone has to be last, actually all races. A horse that ran last in that race or any race with a very high POR means nothing. What means something is if the horse can overcome the POR and won. Was and is it competitive against that POR.

Sartin's guidelines of not selecting a line where the horse was beaten 7.5 lengths or more helps but even that is insufficient.

POR must be put into context of how the horse handled it to have any real meaning and just looking at it as a stand alone won't cut it. The same thing goes for 3rd Fr of POR or even DCL of the actual horse. They must be put in context. A horse can have the best 3rd FR of POR or best DCL against today horses and not win. Context could be its a one run closer that can't overcome todays projected Second Call. Or it could be a very fast E type horse with a high % Med. that stops on a dime and a one run closer can beat it or a horse with a decent HE.

Comparing the POR and its POH does provide some comparison but todays Match Up of what it must do is the very best context.

Single factors or a single components (such as the 3 you added Mike) seldom will out perform a Factor with multiple viable components such as BLBL, V/DC or RX 3. Than again too many factors can ruin the sauce because the worse one tears down the proficiency of the good ones.

The original concept of POR and POR as in the original Yellow Manual is a valid concept to determine what best surface, distance and class a horse is good at or can handle but it does not consider today's Match Up.

Even horses that are competitive in G1 or against good POR's never win. They don't have the will to win or really are G2 or G3 horses and are misplaced to be winners.

Over reliance on POR will get you a tryout but keep you playing in the minors, or if not a baseball fan you'll get an interview but not hired. Actually in this game it gets you a ticket that'll get torn up or thrown on the floor in disgust.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 06-16-2020 at 11:43 AM.
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