Paceline - Class question

[Bill V.]

Hi
This horse was the favorite in yesterdays 8th race at PARX
I had the winner Smarty Slewy

The Sunday race conditions.



The chart/conditions for the last race ALWN1X





my question is Is Emily rising in class or dropping or running
today about the same

[Rverge]

drop in purse money/class

[mikesal57]

Well Bill...

This is after the fact but I look at a/all race(s) like this....

How does the horse run?.....I would say "EARLY"....(his wins come on the lead)

Next is ...will his style be favorable for him in this race???

That means , try to foresee the running of the race...will he be comfortable here?

With the 5 in here we can see that getting the lead will not happen..
so the favorite will not be in his comfort zone and it happened and he lost..

mike

[Bill V.]

Originally Posted by Rverge

drop in purse money/class

Thanks Rverge

here is how I saw the race ..

My top 3 BLBL says 1 7 3 with favorite Emily 4th. So right away I knew I had
value

I went with the 1 and 3

To make this call I used Parx profile of the Early / Late graph
FOLLOW UP # 82 Page 9 Sorry but If I'm going to bet my
money I will listen to Doc


Seperated by distance sex and class
I am doing this wrong in the experts eyes
anyway here is what my "Better" Fillie - Mares at 1 Mile at Parks are doing
The Early Late difference is 1 so I will favor horses nearest to the center line

That to me was the 1 and 3 The 7 seems a bit to late so I used it as my counter energy horse in an exacta box
The 3 won and paid $22.00
The 7 did close big but only got up to third

anyway please be kind to me. I did make the correct call, and bet
Even if Doc's methods are not " correct"

[Bill V.]

Oh In my Early / Late Profile above. There are some races were I have not added the EPR or LPR and Diff numbers yet.
I do this not from the result charts ( I did at first) but I soon discovered that my numbers did not match what I saw on RDSS when the horses came back to run again.
This is because I had no way to adjust from the result charts what the DTV would do to the
readouts.
So now I wait till the winning horse comes back and runs again, then I enter the EPR and LPR and difference numbers that RDSS is awarding that winning paceline
Bill

[RichieP]

Very nicely done Bill! Howard preached for years about the power of that graph to make MONEY with and you did just that!


"The coffee horse"

[shoeless]

Bill,

As long as you think it's right that's what matters the most.

Nice hit.


Jeff

[mikesal57]

EXCELLENT BILL!!!

Now look at your new chart compared with the old one....

Do you now see the difference ?

With the old one I would believe that a mile race at Prx favors "early " horses but the new one says different...

P.S.- doing cheaper and maidens races wouldn't hurt...
you can sort by class now and maybe pick up something

this is your prior chart

[Bill V.]

Thanks Mike
Here is what is going on. A total picture

You can make your own judgement on how the numbers stack up with
a little seperation added.
I don't do maidens so I don't look at them or do I want to know how they run

L= low
B= Better
E-OTE = Race ran either as a E or EP / OTE= race ran SP or S