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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race'

 
 
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Old 04-19-2017, 07:20 PM   #1
Bill V.
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Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
Points not averages

Hi Mick and Ted
In the New RDSS documentation files I disagree with your
explanations of the ratings we see on the PMTR/TPR Tab
these are not averages ratings.

You wrote .
LPR – Late Pace Rating, a rating based on the average of the horse’s Second Call and Third Fraction velocities, i.e. SC + F3 / 2.


The EPR ratings are a points value of the second call from a 100 point scale chart
The chart rates a second call of 44 seconds for sprints and 109 for routes as 100 points.
Every 1/5 of a second slower than a 44 or 109 gets a 1 point deduction from the starting point of 100

An example would be a horse run a 45 second call in a sprint on the lead
This would be 5 fifths slower than a 44,so a horse that runs a 45 second call would get 95 points.

The LPR is also a point value. It is based on a different 100 point scale
The LPR chart is distance adjusted based on a deceleration formula. On this chart, 1 point is added or deducted based on how fast the horse ran the 3rd fraction.
Lets say a horse runs a 3rd fraction in 25 seconds
in a 6 furlong race a 3rd fraction of 25 equals 85 points
In a 1 mile race 85 points means a 26.0 3rd fraction
Those are the raw point values RDSS does all the DTV and ITV adjustments automatically
a formula of 65% and 35% of the EPR and LPR are used for sprints
and 60 and 40 % in routes

Here is an example
Lets use line 1 for Swell
The horse was on the lead at the second call did not lose of gain lengths in the 3rd fraction so this is an easy one .
The DTV was a fast -10 and the line comes from today's track Parx so there
is no ITV

46.2 ( fifths ) on the lead = 88 points DTV-10 No ITV 65% = 92 EPR
Swell ran the 3rd fraction in 25.2 seconds (fifths) on the lead no beaten lengths
71.4 - 46.2 = 25.2
On the FFR (LPR ) chart a 6 furlong 25.2 = 83 points DTV-10 No ITV 35% = 85.5 points

TPR is EP points + LP points
92 Points
85.5 points
----------
177.5 points


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