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Pace Makes the Race / TPR Discussion, Examples, Lessons from Total Pace Ratings (TPR) aka 'Phase I' from the book 'Pace Makes the Race' |
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04-19-2017, 07:20 PM | #1 |
The egg man
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Carlsbad, California
Posts: 10,005
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Points not averages
Hi Mick and Ted
In the New RDSS documentation files I disagree with your explanations of the ratings we see on the PMTR/TPR Tab these are not averages ratings. You wrote . LPR – Late Pace Rating, a rating based on the average of the horse’s Second Call and Third Fraction velocities, i.e. SC + F3 / 2. The EPR ratings are a points value of the second call from a 100 point scale chart The chart rates a second call of 44 seconds for sprints and 109 for routes as 100 points. Every 1/5 of a second slower than a 44 or 109 gets a 1 point deduction from the starting point of 100 An example would be a horse run a 45 second call in a sprint on the lead This would be 5 fifths slower than a 44,so a horse that runs a 45 second call would get 95 points. The LPR is also a point value. It is based on a different 100 point scale The LPR chart is distance adjusted based on a deceleration formula. On this chart, 1 point is added or deducted based on how fast the horse ran the 3rd fraction. Lets say a horse runs a 3rd fraction in 25 seconds in a 6 furlong race a 3rd fraction of 25 equals 85 points In a 1 mile race 85 points means a 26.0 3rd fraction Those are the raw point values RDSS does all the DTV and ITV adjustments automatically a formula of 65% and 35% of the EPR and LPR are used for sprints and 60 and 40 % in routes Here is an example Lets use line 1 for Swell The horse was on the lead at the second call did not lose of gain lengths in the 3rd fraction so this is an easy one . The DTV was a fast -10 and the line comes from today's track Parx so there is no ITV 46.2 ( fifths ) on the lead = 88 points DTV-10 No ITV 65% = 92 EPR Swell ran the 3rd fraction in 25.2 seconds (fifths) on the lead no beaten lengths 71.4 - 46.2 = 25.2 On the FFR (LPR ) chart a 6 furlong 25.2 = 83 points DTV-10 No ITV 35% = 85.5 points TPR is EP points + LP points 92 Points 85.5 points ---------- 177.5 points |
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