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03-16-2023, 12:37 AM | #1 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 30
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What's the value of RDSS without the TS ratings?
What's the value of RDSS without the TS ratings?
Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-16-2023 at 03:07 PM. Reason: moved from another discussion |
03-16-2023, 01:38 PM | #2 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Speed,
RDSS has whatever value the Sartin Methodology had/has - it is an implementation of almost every phase of it over 30+ years: incremental energy expenditure over all segments of the race sensitive to the matchup of running styles and pace pressure, Total Pace Ratings, Early vs Late energy distribution, velocity/deceleration calculations and compounded factors, Bradshaw's Matchup, Lehane's moves against the pace, advanced form factor analysis, a pretty good Class Rating. Several core factors such as %Median can be modeled for a track and distance structure to determine typical E/L energy expenditures un/suited to winning. Live tote analysis in WPS pools (soon Ex and DD pools and live wager construction). RDSS gives you tools to nuance the form analysis and suitability of horses to today's matchup of runners (i.e. demote/promote horses contrasting to public opinion). Without Prime Power and ProfitLine ratings, you can arrive at an oddsline (Bottom Line/Betting Line) which has stood the test of time for nearly 30 years though less profitable alone in modern times. Adding essentially 2 other public oddslines (PP and PL) gives a form of 'triangulation' to the other Sartin-derived factors which puts the prime contenders within the Top 4 ranks of the Rx3 oddsline a very high percentage of the time. Using the '4 Factor methodology' researched by late member Rich Mathie, lower-ranked Rx oddsline longshot horses with none-the-less 'stealth' credentials leads to some very good, not infrequent vertical wager opportunities. Adding in intelligence from the live tote pools puts you in even a better position to pass or play into good opportunities when they are identified. As a long-time reader of this site, I suspect you knew all this, but were perhaps wondering what the TS Ratings add to the tried and true Sartin stuff? Others may wish to elaborate from their own usage, but I would venture to say that you can still find all the same opportunities of the modern Sartin Methodology without use of those TS Ratings However, merging them into a high-level oddsline (IMO) results in a better oddsline than any of Prime Power, ProfitLine, BL/BL or live Tote odds alone. So, the best of all worlds (so far)? Ted
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03-16-2023, 01:48 PM | #3 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Here is a relevant reply I gave recently in another thread related to use of ratings from the BRIS PPs, which some people also use (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15495):
(Commenting on 'Class-related BRIS figs like Prime Power and Average Class Level) - Quote:
I still agree with that decades old aphorism of Doc's. I also respect his original scientific point-of-view to go where the data lead him, without preconception.Ted
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03-26-2023, 12:48 AM | #4 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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03-27-2023, 12:21 PM | #5 | |
cratman
Join Date: May 2006
Location: DC area
Posts: 82
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Well said
Quote:
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03-29-2023, 12:00 PM | #6 |
AlwNW3X
Join Date: Feb 2009
Posts: 30
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I'm not saying the software is not useful, but without the bris info some people seemed lost! What if everything changed and you could no longer get the info? how would that effect the software? 50% of Rmath's 4-factor Method is based on bris info!
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03-29-2023, 07:49 PM | #7 |
cratman
Join Date: May 2006
Location: DC area
Posts: 82
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Seach for corollary
Doc Sartin stressed the value of corollaries. R Math came up with one set that worked well for him. There are others which can be used to enhance results, including some currently in the program readoiuts. Those willing to do the work will likely profit more than those who are not.
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03-29-2023, 11:28 PM | #8 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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In a pinch, there are ways to get the data at low cost or even free, though a lot more work. But it is certainly more convenient that Ted includes it right there in RDSS.
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03-30-2023, 08:34 PM | #9 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Jun 2005
Location: Nanaimo, British Columbia, Canada
Posts: 8,853
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Quote:
2. TwinSpires/BRIS is not going to make those figs unavailable. If they weren't available electronically for some reason - just click a button on the RDSS Desktop and look at them on the TS public site. Use a little elbow grease, make your own equivalent oddsline (that's what we did before they came into RDSS). You don't have to use BRIS figs - HDW's PSR and other high-level figs are just as effective (and less public), or reputable, non-correlated, high-level oddslines from other sources. It's the non-correlated part which adds value. 3. Use it or don't. You still have to handicap the race, check odds, assess uncertainty, choose your risk level. Use whatever useful and non-redundant tools you can get. Ted
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