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Old 03-16-2023, 12:37 AM   #1
Speed Figure
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What's the value of RDSS without the TS ratings?

What's the value of RDSS without the TS ratings?

Last edited by Ted Craven; 03-16-2023 at 03:07 PM. Reason: moved from another discussion
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Old 03-16-2023, 01:38 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
What's the value of RDSS without the TS ratings?
Speed,

RDSS has whatever value the Sartin Methodology had/has - it is an implementation of almost every phase of it over 30+ years: incremental energy expenditure over all segments of the race sensitive to the matchup of running styles and pace pressure, Total Pace Ratings, Early vs Late energy distribution, velocity/deceleration calculations and compounded factors, Bradshaw's Matchup, Lehane's moves against the pace, advanced form factor analysis, a pretty good Class Rating. Several core factors such as %Median can be modeled for a track and distance structure to determine typical E/L energy expenditures un/suited to winning. Live tote analysis in WPS pools (soon Ex and DD pools and live wager construction). RDSS gives you tools to nuance the form analysis and suitability of horses to today's matchup of runners (i.e. demote/promote horses contrasting to public opinion).

Without Prime Power and ProfitLine ratings, you can arrive at an oddsline (Bottom Line/Betting Line) which has stood the test of time for nearly 30 years though less profitable alone in modern times. Adding essentially 2 other public oddslines (PP and PL) gives a form of 'triangulation' to the other Sartin-derived factors which puts the prime contenders within the Top 4 ranks of the Rx3 oddsline a very high percentage of the time. Using the '4 Factor methodology' researched by late member Rich Mathie, lower-ranked Rx oddsline longshot horses with none-the-less 'stealth' credentials leads to some very good, not infrequent vertical wager opportunities. Adding in intelligence from the live tote pools puts you in even a better position to pass or play into good opportunities when they are identified.

As a long-time reader of this site, I suspect you knew all this, but were perhaps wondering what the TS Ratings add to the tried and true Sartin stuff? Others may wish to elaborate from their own usage, but I would venture to say that you can still find all the same opportunities of the modern Sartin Methodology without use of those TS Ratings However, merging them into a high-level oddsline (IMO) results in a better oddsline than any of Prime Power, ProfitLine, BL/BL or live Tote odds alone.

So, the best of all worlds (so far)?

Ted
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Old 03-16-2023, 01:48 PM   #3
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Here is a relevant reply I gave recently in another thread related to use of ratings from the BRIS PPs, which some people also use (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15495):

(Commenting on 'Class-related BRIS figs like Prime Power and Average Class Level) -

Quote:
Originally Posted by Tim Y View Post
I always was under the impression of what Dr. Sartin originally said: CLASS is PACE and vice versa
I still agree with that decades old aphorism of Doc's. I also respect his original scientific point-of-view to go where the data lead him, without preconception.

In recent years, in RDSS, we have added 2 public high-level oddslines from BRIS - Prime Power and ProfitLine, since they are in the public domain and digitally available. This is NOT because they are profitable figs in and of themselves: they are too widely disseminated for that. Consider them analogous to Jim Cramers PSR figs (Projected Speed Rating) available via HDW and in software which use that data source like HTR, HSH, Jcapper, etc.

The Average Class Level fig discussed in this thread (by Tom, and responded to by me) looks like just another high-level overall oddsline - and yet another 'black-box' fig. It could have omitted the word 'Class' and been named SuperOdds or Rx99, or whatever.

The reason I have incorporated these external ratings over the years for those who want and respect them is NOT because the internal Sartin ratings (BLBL, VDC, Total Energy, E/L, etc) are insufficient per se.

Rather - for me, regardless of how others think about it - it relates to advice given to me over the years by the late great Dr Bill Ziemba. He said a good oddsline is a result of both co-related and non-correlated figures, and he kept referring to similarities with the Modern Portfolio Theory for financial markets analysis. He said, essentially 'get a good mean of your numbers' meaning inputs from non-correlated angles, then your odds line will be valid enough to go into the markets and seek pricing divergences from your oddsline on which to wager.

In Sartin-world, Total Energy is pretty co-related to TPR, co-related to BLBL rank, co-related (sometimes imperfectly) to VDC, etc, etc. Energy-distribution imbalances and insufficiencies for today's matchup are of course a crux. But adding in external ratings like Prime Power and ProfitLine (or others - ACL?, if warranted) - seems to have added an extra measure of accuracy, and for newcomers as well as old-hands - a quick leg-up to both main Contenders and also live longshots. If you are unfamiliar, refer to the 4-Factor Method, researched and presented by late member Rich Mathie (rmath).

Emphasis on 'research', like Sartin's original bold move to follow the data. There is a developed methodology to assess the internal-to-Sartin factors plus external oddsline contributions (Prime Power, ProfitLine), along with contention guidelines, to get pretty good results if bet properly and prudently. Daily examples and wager results and educational materials published in Races of Interest Forum.

The Classiest, Paciest horses stand the best chances of winning. We continue to do our best to evolve and follow the data, without prejudice (not always easy, agreed).
Ted
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Old 03-26-2023, 12:48 AM   #4
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
What's the value of RDSS without the TS ratings?
Lone ratings or odds lines can be helpful, but are no substitute for good handicapping practices.

For one thing, big price longshots are rare, but some are gettable. But extremely seldom with a lone rating.
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Old 03-27-2023, 12:21 PM   #5
cratman
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Well said

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ted Craven View Post
Here is a relevant reply I gave recently in another thread related to use of ratings from the BRIS PPs, which some people also use (http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=15495):

(Commenting on 'Class-related BRIS figs like Prime Power and Average Class Level) -

I still agree with that decades old aphorism of Doc's. I also respect his original scientific point-of-view to go where the data lead him, without preconception.

In recent years, in RDSS, we have added 2 public high-level oddslines from BRIS - Prime Power and ProfitLine, since they are in the public domain and digitally available. This is NOT because they are profitable figs in and of themselves: they are too widely disseminated for that. Consider them analogous to Jim Cramers PSR figs (Projected Speed Rating) available via HDW and in software which use that data source like HTR, HSH, Jcapper, etc.

The Average Class Level fig discussed in this thread (by Tom, and responded to by me) looks like just another high-level overall oddsline - and yet another 'black-box' fig. It could have omitted the word 'Class' and been named SuperOdds or Rx99, or whatever.

The reason I have incorporated these external ratings over the years for those who want and respect them is NOT because the internal Sartin ratings (BLBL, VDC, Total Energy, E/L, etc) are insufficient per se.

Rather - for me, regardless of how others think about it - it relates to advice given to me over the years by the late great Dr Bill Ziemba. He said a good oddsline is a result of both co-related and non-correlated figures, and he kept referring to similarities with the Modern Portfolio Theory for financial markets analysis. He said, essentially 'get a good mean of your numbers' meaning inputs from non-correlated angles, then your odds line will be valid enough to go into the markets and seek pricing divergences from your oddsline on which to wager.

In Sartin-world, Total Energy is pretty co-related to TPR, co-related to BLBL rank, co-related (sometimes imperfectly) to VDC, etc, etc. Energy-distribution imbalances and insufficiencies for today's matchup are of course a crux. But adding in external ratings like Prime Power and ProfitLine (or others - ACL?, if warranted) - seems to have added an extra measure of accuracy, and for newcomers as well as old-hands - a quick leg-up to both main Contenders and also live longshots. If you are unfamiliar, refer to the 4-Factor Method, researched and presented by late member Rich Mathie (rmath).

Emphasis on 'research', like Sartin's original bold move to follow the data. There is a developed methodology to assess the internal-to-Sartin factors plus external oddsline contributions (Prime Power, ProfitLine), along with contention guidelines, to get pretty good results if bet properly and prudently. Daily examples and wager results and educational materials published in Races of Interest Forum.

The Classiest, Paciest horses stand the best chances of winning. We continue to do our best to evolve and follow the data, without prejudice (not always easy, agreed).
Ted
Thanks Ted very well said
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Old 03-29-2023, 12:00 PM   #6
Speed Figure
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I'm not saying the software is not useful, but without the bris info some people seemed lost! What if everything changed and you could no longer get the info? how would that effect the software? 50% of Rmath's 4-factor Method is based on bris info!
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Old 03-29-2023, 07:49 PM   #7
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Seach for corollary

Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
I'm not saying the software is not useful, but without the bris info some people seemed lost! What if everything changed and you could no longer get the info? how would that effect the software? 50% of Rmath's 4-factor Method is based on bris info!
Doc Sartin stressed the value of corollaries. R Math came up with one set that worked well for him. There are others which can be used to enhance results, including some currently in the program readoiuts. Those willing to do the work will likely profit more than those who are not.
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Old 03-29-2023, 11:28 PM   #8
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
I'm not saying the software is not useful, but without the bris info some people seemed lost! What if everything changed and you could no longer get the info? how would that effect the software? 50% of Rmath's 4-factor Method is based on bris info!
In a pinch, there are ways to get the data at low cost or even free, though a lot more work. But it is certainly more convenient that Ted includes it right there in RDSS.
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Old 03-30-2023, 08:34 PM   #9
Ted Craven
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Speed Figure View Post
I'm not saying the software is not useful, but without the bris info some people seemed lost! What if everything changed and you could no longer get the info? how would that effect the software? 50% of Rmath's 4-factor Method is based on bris info!
1. Up until a few years ago, you could use RDSS and all other older Sartin programs to make money or do your best depending on your attention to detail, paying attention to odds, record keeping and your own psychology - without these new factors showing in the software. Some people still use those old programs on this website. So, you can still use those same tools and ignore the BRIS info - I know some RDSS users just turn that data off ('Doc didn't use no BRIS figs'). Smart players like to use every advantage, and I think those ratings add in some extra benefit - not sure how much. Some people could get lost following a professional bettor up to the mutuel windows. So, YMMV.

2. TwinSpires/BRIS is not going to make those figs unavailable. If they weren't available electronically for some reason - just click a button on the RDSS Desktop and look at them on the TS public site. Use a little elbow grease, make your own equivalent oddsline (that's what we did before they came into RDSS). You don't have to use BRIS figs - HDW's PSR and other high-level figs are just as effective (and less public), or reputable, non-correlated, high-level oddslines from other sources. It's the non-correlated part which adds value.

3. Use it or don't. You still have to handicap the race, check odds, assess uncertainty, choose your risk level. Use whatever useful and non-redundant tools you can get.

Ted
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