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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 09-26-2021, 03:54 PM   #1
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One Last 2c Survey.

I decided to run 1 more survey on how horses outside of the maximum range at the 2c call fared. The range for each dist & surface was established by me during the first survey taken. The tracks involved were Sar,Mth,Parx,Del,and TDN. This gave me a good mix of tracks ranging form the top[SAR]to the lowest level [TDN] Here are the results.
Horses Winners Place Horses Show Horses Out Of Money
100 14 11 16 59
So after a total of 400 horses only 44[11%] have managed to overcome too many lengths behind at the 2nd call. As stated before this is based on my contender and paceline selections. I am aware of Docs opinions in FU 80 but to me any factor that helps eliminate a contender from win consideration 89% of the time is worth revisiting. I have been employing this procedure since I posted the first survey and I am very comfortable doing so. One other thing I like to point out is that those who rely on VD/C Numbers should reread FU#81 P1. The Doc reminds us that the numbers under the VD/C column are to be considered same as the tier rankings on the BL/BL screen[horizontal tiers] not ranks. He further points out the final wagering should not be made on the basis of the numbers but by final odds[another way of saying wager capping]. Some may not feel comfortable with this but it
will get the higher paying horses. Since I move horses up and down the tier levels any way I have no problem wagering on a 3rd or 4th tiered horse listed by RDSS. As always ,if one is not winning now, then one should run some test and keep records to see if this procedure will align with your comfort zone while increasing your profits.
Tim
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Old 09-26-2021, 04:23 PM   #2
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lt1 View Post
I decided to run 1 more survey on how horses outside of the maximum range at the 2c call fared. The range for each dist & surface was established by me during the first survey taken. The tracks involved were Sar,Mth,Parx,Del,and TDN. This gave me a good mix of tracks ranging form the top[SAR]to the lowest level [TDN] Here are the results.
Horses Winners Place Horses Show Horses Out Of Money
100 14 11 16 59
So after a total of 400 horses only 44[11%] have managed to overcome too many lengths behind at the 2nd call. As stated before this is based on my contender and paceline selections. I am aware of Docs opinions in FU 80 but to me any factor that helps eliminate a contender from win consideration 89% of the time is worth revisiting. I have been employing this procedure since I posted the first survey and I am very comfortable doing so. One other thing I like to point out is that those who rely on VD/C Numbers should reread FU#81 P1. The Doc reminds us that the numbers under the VD/C column are to be considered same as the tier rankings on the BL/BL screen[horizontal tiers] not ranks. He further points out the final wagering should not be made on the basis of the numbers but by final odds[another way of saying wager capping]. Some may not feel comfortable with this but it
will get the higher paying horses. Since I move horses up and down the tier levels any way I have no problem wagering on a 3rd or 4th tiered horse listed by RDSS. As always ,if one is not winning now, then one should run some test and keep records to see if this procedure will align with your comfort zone while increasing your profits.
Tim
Thanks, Tim. Can you please clarify what you mean by top (SAR) to lowest (TDN)? I am not clear as to whether SAR, for instance, has the highest range or the most or least outside of range or the tightest range or what. I look forward to your response, as I respect your opinions.
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Old 09-26-2021, 06:28 PM   #3
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Hi RW. Simply put Sar is considered a top of the line track with the best class of horse while TDN is considered to be a lower level with trks like Parx,Del, and Mth middle of the road. What I was trying to do was to show this factor works at all types of tracks. Higher class horses are more likely to overcome 2nd call defects but even most of them fail also.
Tim
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Old 09-26-2021, 06:58 PM   #4
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Got it! Thanks! Makes sense.
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Old 09-26-2021, 07:27 PM   #5
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quote: So after a total of 400 horses only 44[11%] have managed to overcome too many lengths behind at the 2nd call. As stated before this is based on my contender and paceline selections.

doesn't that BIAS the study right out of the gate? Some of those could easily be outliners.

Wouldn't an AVERAGE or mean of all line with the same POR be a better representative choice?
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Old 09-27-2021, 08:41 AM   #6
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Hi Tim
The horses are all of the true contenders for the race. I don't think the study is bias at all. Everyone caps differently and I'm sharing my findings for info I find useful based on what I do.. Everyone is free to check it out or disregard it. I did indicate that others' results may vary based on their contender paceline selection.
Tim
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Old 09-27-2021, 11:19 AM   #7
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Hi Tim
The horses are all of the true contenders for the race. I don't think the study is bias at all. Everyone caps differently and I'm sharing my findings for info I find useful based on what I do.. Everyone is free to check it out or disregard it. I did indicate that others' results may vary based on their contender paceline selection.
Tim
Seems your selections speak to the validity of your process.
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Old 09-27-2021, 11:40 AM   #8
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Thanks RW. Once again if folks think this of interest to them then they need to test it for themselves before employing it[never accept anything blindly no matter who post it]. If they are not interested then by all means disregard the info.
Tim
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