12/10 Aqu r6 screenshots

[Lt1]

Here are the bl/bl and rx screens for r6 winner #7 a Richie Mathie lsp ie non contender ranking in top 5 of both vdc #4 and csr #5.

bl/bl screen

rx screen

[DanBoals]

Hi Tim,

This is probably going to seem like a really dumb question, and since I do not have the original lines, maybe something in the past performances explains it, but why was 9 a contender but not 7?

It looks from the screen shot like 6,2,9 and 7 were all in a tandem race together. From the adjusted SR, it seems like 7 and 9 finished about the same distance back of 6 which I would guess to be about 4 lengths behind from the difference in adjust speed rating. 7 has a morning line odds of 8-1, and from my own records, I know that the vast majority of winners have morning line odds of 8-1 or less, which was the same morning line odds for your contender the 5.

I am curious why you had 7 in the non contenders?

Thanks,

Dan

[Lt1]

Hi Dan. My contenders are always the top 5 ranked Profit and Prime ranked horses therefore the 7 was a non contender for me to start. I do look at all non contenders just in case. However as I pointed out it was the LSP for the race since it was a non contender ranked in the top 5 of both CSR & VDC [Richie Mathies' definition] and did win. Here's the ticket I played
Dec 10 234 PM Complete Aqueduct 5 Double $1.00 3,7/2,3,5-7,9 $12.00 $135.50 $123.50 Hope that helps.
Tim

[DanBoals]

Thanks Tim,

Brilliant bet. I would have had the horse as a contender because of the tandem race he was in with the other 3 contenders and his proximity to them in that tandem race, but looking at your screenshots, I probably would not have had the courage to bet him. Well done.

[Lt1]

Thanks Dan.
Tim

[ranchwest]

Good example, Tim!

[Lt1]

Thanks Ranch. We have Richie Mathie to thank for sharing the angle with us. It's been good to me. Sure do miss him.
Tim

[dadams6357]

Originally Posted by Lt1

Hi Dan. My contenders are always the top 5 ranked Profit and Prime ranked horses therefore the 7 was a non contender for me to start. I do look at all non contenders just in case. However as I pointed out it was the LSP for the race since it was a non contender ranked in the top 5 of both CSR & VDC [Richie Mathies' definition] and did win. Here's the ticket I played
Dec 10 234 PM Complete Aqueduct 5 Double $1.00 3,7/2,3,5-7,9 $12.00 $135.50 $123.50 Hope that helps.
Tim

Tim
When you say prime are you referring to the primary factors in the Primary Screen.
Don

[Lt1]

Sorry Don I should have said Bris Prime Power rank. I model the primary factors. Sorry for the confusion.
Tim

[dadams6357]

Thanks for the clarification Tim.
Appreciate your feedback and contribution to the site
as a whole.
Don