Aqu March 13 Race 1 (Form Example)

[The Pook]

In reading about form cycles and + races etc. on recent threads I was able to get a good hit today. The favourite #5 seemed to me to be declining in form (lower total energy) and (higher median %) and didn't have as plus a race last race. It was in the mud but he has won in the mud before. Discarding #5 put me on #6. Worked well for me this time. Didn't get time to bet in the contest however. Plus I thought I would try out Snagit and so have 3 pictures below.

Pook

[Segwin]

Nice hit! Damn shame you couldn't get any money down.

In snagit the have a square that has a dropped shadow option which looks better on screen.

[DocSartinLearner]

Hi Pook,
We learn from this anyway! Thanks.

DSL

[DontSayDont]

Originally Posted by The Pook

In reading about form cycles and + races etc. on recent threads I was able to get a good hit today. The favourite #5 seemed to me to be declining in form (lower total energy) and (higher median %) and didn't have as plus a race last race. It was in the mud but he has won in the mud before. Discarding #5 put me on #6. Worked well for me this time. Didn't get time to bet in the contest however. Plus I thought I would try out Snagit and so have 3 pictures below.

Pook

One thing that is often talked about in picking contenders and pacelines, consistency.

How did you come about using line 3? Best of last 3, comparable distance and class?

Here's what I see on this horse.
Last line: Not a comparable line because of the off track and not a comparable line because of the raise in class. It has a couple of reasons that we can go back a line looking for a + race.

2nd line: This might be the pace line. The horse is dropping in class from its last race. It is going back to a "state bred race". It is going to be in a race that is about 1/2 the claiming price of its maiden win. Still the race is an open state-bred 16K claimer. I would much prefer this line IF this was a s16 n2L. (State-bred 16k non-winners of 2 lifetime). Then it would be making a natural progression in its lifetime conditions.

3rd line: This is the line you chose. Notice the pace of race was 23.2 - 46.8 and the horse tired slightly from that effort. Line 2 he was able to wire his field with a slightly slower pace. That is the reason I would have chosen line 2 over line 3 for the pace line. Also, why do we want to go back off a + pace-line? Line 2 is a + pace-line. I would use that and hope you still would be able to use the #6 for betting purposes.

But as a consistency factor in picking your contenders and pace-lines, I think line 2 would be the line to work with.

Ray

[The Pook]

Ray

To be honest I usually let RDSS choose the best line from the last 3 comparable. Sartin says to give the horse its best chance, mostly always from the last 3. Personally I don't delve too much into class levels etc. I think it would drive me nuts.

The line chosen put #5 on top of 5 contenders based on the fulcrum. The #3 and the #5 I moved to secondary status because of what I saw as declining form as described. So regardless of line chosen the #5 would have ended in the same place. Even with the #5 left in I would have ignored his low odds and bet the #1A and #6. In looking at his last 4 lines in BL/BL against the other contenders I didn't find him so dominant as to want to pass. He did run 3rd however which was maybe better than I expected.

Hope this explains my thinking but remember as with most others on here it is only IMHO.

Pook