The ONE RACE WONDER a.k.a the OUTLIER

[DanBoals]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

then, (and one of my favorites) the Damon Runyon where one compares all the True Speed ratings in a race, and when they are all with the same whole number (i.e.55.4,55.6,55.2, 55.8 etc) one just looks at the decleration to often find a well paying winner hidden in that data.

This is why I LOVE this board and the Sartin methodology. This is brilliant. I mean this idea is next level genius. I have never heard it before, but it is one of those things that when someone tells you, you are just amazed that it never dawned on you or that you never heard it before somewhere else.

Thank you Tim, sincerely, thank you, for sharing this... what an incredible way to apply deceleration.

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

there is a good example of this phenomenon in the 9th at Saratoga Thursday August 25: 10 A Mo Reay...One big effrot 2nd back and nothing else like it

I have that horse with the worst CSR in the field based on BRIS figures.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

I have that horse with the worst CSR in the field based on BRIS figures.

However...I had coattails 9 and 7 posted at Horse Racing Nation's Play of the day: "Sar 9th play of day....7 11 out then 9 3 4 chase later." oof was 7 9 10 6.

Super was a new RECORD for that angle $8995.60

so with randomness UNDER with "coattails," you only have to find the best early the best

I had that 10 bottom ranked as well, but its TURF where TRIPS are more important than ratings.

[ranchwest]

I had the 7 as best on my odds line.

[ranchwest]

The 10 did improve a lot.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

I had the 7 as best on my odds line.

Agreed there

[Tim Y]

Rich Strike in tomorrow's Travers is a one race wonder, 2nd back

[DanBoals]

Tried the deceleration idea this morning on the Albany Stakes

There were only 4 horses, so I would normally pass this race, but I noticed that all of the horses TS velocities were between 53.8 and 54.1 for a spread of 0.3 feet per second, pretty close together. The 5, who was the highest mutuel was the best deceleration, so I put $20 on him. He paid $15.00 to win and it was not even close, he won going away.

What is even funnier, is that they finished in order of deceleration. Not sure if the sloppy track made stamina more important than normal, but my notes on past 9f dirt winners at this meet are : "top 3 BL, usually top 2; runs early, EPR and CPR in top 3" so this is not normal from what I have seen this year at Saratoga.

Big thanks to Tim for sharing this concept.

Dan

[ranchwest]

Originally Posted by Tim Y

Rich Strike in tomorrow's Travers is a one race wonder, 2nd back

i keep hearing the trainer talk about if the horse ever decides to be competitive early then we will see amazing things. Is he just being coy or what? This horse is late. He will always be late. Doesn't mean he can't win, but if they don't let the horse run his race, he is very unlikely.

[Tim Y]

Originally Posted by ranchwest

i keep hearing the trainer talk about if the horse ever decides to be competitive early then we will see amazing things. Is he just being coy or what? This horse is late. He will always be late. Doesn't mean he can't win, but if they don't let the horse run his race, he is very unlikely.

Agree he runs from much too far back