Go Back   Pace and Cap - Sartin Methodology & The Match Up > RDSS > RDSS Info, Reference
Mark Forums Read
Google Site Search Get RDSS Sartin Library RDSS FAQs Conduct Register Site FAQ Members List Search Today's Posts

RDSS Info, Reference How to obtain RDSS2, get started and learn to use it. (Video and other tutorials)

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
Old 09-07-2022, 04:53 PM   #31
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Ranch,
In a bullet workout the horse is assigned a bullet because it finished 1st in rank above all others, I.e. 1/11 as above. it can't beat itself so in gets the 91. In the 65 example if the horse was to get a bullet and were best or 1/65., it would get a 98.48 or 98. Its accounted for in the formula. In the formula the more horses it beats the better its rating. If 2nd of 65 and no bullet it would get a 97.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-07-2022, 05:16 PM   #32
ranchwest
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Bill,
The horse itself doesn't count and can't get 100 because he's not counted as a beaten horse. It's based on how many the horse beats, and it can't beat itself.

As far as Chad Brown perhaps that why he loses sometimes. This does not capture every situation, there are exceptions to everything. As Sartin said there are no rules. Our guidelines aren't going to win every race or situation however it is a big improvement.

There are trainers that never work their horses fast. They are the exception not the norm of most trainers and some work their horse away from the track. Every facet of horseracing has an exception however some have more than others. We can't worry over the un-getable. To a certain extent form belongs to the connections and even more so in MDN. races. There are also times that where smarter than them and know their best distance, surface etc. We must capture the majority; nothing is perfect particularity in horseracing.

Mitch44
By your method, a bullet work can be a 50 one day, 85 the next, 75 the next. You can, of course, do it any way you want. Just doesn't make sense to me. You're taking the horse out of the dividend, but leaving it in the divisor.
ranchwest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-07-2022, 06:24 PM   #33
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Yes, the % of work out based on horses beat will distinguish bullet workouts. They're not the same depending on how many it beat. Two bullet works ex.

1/15 = 93
1/30 = 97

It works perfectly with this because they both were #1 of those that worked. So, the bullet work is accounted for.
For horses that aren't number 1 they can both have the same rating such as 1/11 & 6/65 as above posts but they're not really equal because one did it against more horses but that can't be determined.

For a bullet works the % beaten is clearly defined and figured in the rating, because you're always using a horse that ranked 1st so the number of horses beaten effects the final rating. In other words, all #1 bullet w/o horses are not created equal. The ones that did it against more horses receive the better ratings as in above example, and they should. These two ex. could be in the same race, both with a bullet work however they're not 100, the better of the two is the 1/30.

Hope this clarifies it ranch.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-07-2022, 09:32 PM   #34
ranchwest
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
A bullet work is always better than 100% of the other horses. A horse can have a bullet in 59.6 for 4 straight weeks and have 4 different ratings.

But I'll leave it at that. We aren't going to agree.
ranchwest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-07-2022, 11:38 PM   #35
ranchwest
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
Either way it is calculated, the basic premise is still valid. Good horses generally turn in good times at good intervals.
ranchwest is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-07-2022, 11:59 PM   #36
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Yes ranch, these bullet works normally occur by the much better horses and or higher class of horses. It's not unusual for a very good horse to have more than one bullet work.
We need a way to determine which are better or the best one and how that figure into its form cycle. Obviously, recency of the best one has more importance and how it fits within or spacing of their races.

After some work and review of this I believe it'll give you better insights.
Wishing you sucess in your future to make profitable plays.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-08-2022, 01:30 AM   #37
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Prospects:

With these workout figures the higher the # the better the prospect of its win potential. But I was asked, can a rating of 55 beat horses of say 90 and 85? The answer is yes. This situation can occur with any factor such as TPR where a horse 10 lengths inferior jumps up and beats the top rank horse or top 2 or 3. But how can that be?
In almost all cases there was some type of improvement. It found its best distance, surface, class such as a dropdown that’s been racing over its head. First time Blinkers on or off, ditto for Lasix. Claims or trainer changes to a better trainer. How often does this happen, my best guess or estimate is 5 %.

Nobody gets them all. However, with proper analysis we can catch some of these and they pay big. Anytime a horse improves its speed in a workout or all of a sudden shows early speed in a race we need to take notice. Try to ascertain the reason why. Sometimes we even must predict or anticipate an improved performance. And that pays big.

Having all of a horse's workouts rated by % of horses beaten shows whether its improving or declining. It helps to interpret the form factor. For every race you win you’ll probably lose two due to the form factor. Now betting two horses increases your chances but still form beats us. We need to do better than just guessing if it over the top or will continue their current form.

Take notice of a new top in its workouts and if you can find a corollary expect it to continue to improve, with a horse like that we don’t know what its top Speed Rating will be in a race.

BTW you can also see this in RDSS PP’s where a horses last race is its highest rating in Total Energy or TPR. Figure out why and with a valid reason expect it to continue to improve. Older horses that run a top seldom repeat that. However, a young horse such as a 2,3 or 4-year-old have upside once they figure racing out or the trainer and connections figure out the horse. Some 5 years old's can improve dramatically due to maturing; however, the majority are 2, 3, & 4-year old's. Having all the races rated in RDSS is another way to figure improving and declining horses and form that few pay attention to.

No factor or angle works 100% but we can do better than the present with an open mind and the use of improved workouts or improved Tot. Energy or TPR. Analysis will improve one’s bottom line even if only applied to the top ranked horses in the strongest Factors of the RDSS program. How many times do you pick the wrong two horses out of your top 4?

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-08-2022, 11:20 AM   #38
Michael
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Location: U K
Posts: 100
Have only just skimmed the pages on this thread and regards the bullets can they be traced back to there high run rating in the race that followed the bullet.
That way can you work out if there is a cycle to the run.
As I have only skimmed this you have already done this.
If so sorry
Michael is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-08-2022, 11:45 AM   #39
Mitch44
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
Mike, the short answer is yes. At one glance you can see all of a horse's workouts. By analysis you can compare them to their races and see if there was improvement or decline. They can be a tipoff to a big effort today, especially if coming off a layoff.

The easy way to do this is to have 2 panels open in the program, 1 to pick pace lines and view its PP's and the other panel on workouts. Simple but most refuse to analyze this and their form cycle.

BTW just click on the gear box or wheel on the right of screen and it'll give you choices or options on panels.

Mitch44
Mitch44 is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 09-08-2022, 01:26 PM   #40
Old Arkie Gal
Grade 1
 
Join Date: Apr 2008
Posts: 153
Gentlemen, fine Socratic discussion/argument!
Old Arkie Gal is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On

Forum Jump

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Original Energy Program Lord John Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion 0 01-18-2013 12:10 AM
energy program problems amydlarz Classic Sartin Programs - Support, Discussion 2 02-23-2011 11:27 PM
program to a different computer shrink1 RDSS 2 07-21-2009 12:39 PM
C++ manual entry program smilingtiger General Discussion 4 06-24-2009 05:38 PM


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, vBulletin Solutions Inc.

All times are GMT -4. The time now is 05:35 AM.