New Program /workout %

[Mitch44]

If one were to go back in my posts for 90-day horses, there are insights that co-inside with this use of % of workouts. I'll give it again here as it applies to both multiple qualifiers of % of workouts and separators.

Among the things I consider for long layoff horses is simply odds. I know 90-day horses only win 10% of the time so one of my qualifiers is to demand 9-1 odds and higher. It compensated for the losing horses even though they meet my other qualifications.
In MSW races with workout % I also look for horses 9-1 and up. At times I have just bet the 2 or 3 highest and hit horses paying $40 $50 & $60. I also lessen the bet and bet more horses.

This gets all kinds of prices, one day alone 4 horses won. I took 5-2 on one and on another it keyed a nice $25 EX.

Consider how many contenders, degree of information on race or how many unknown factors and adjust. On 90 day and MSW with several FTS I demand 9-1 and up Risk and reward. For older horses there more information to go by so that 9-1 can be lowered. But an older horse race can have Unknown factors in them such as a couple of horses stretching out etc.

Adjust to your assessment of the race. Yesterday at KD there were at least 6 legit horses that could win the race, most races only 3 or 4. A favorite in this situation is poor risk verses reward. It not an accurate way of doing this, that is demanding 9-1 in all races because some races just aren't as risky, Winners can be missed both ways. Try demanding 9-1 only on an RX factor. Yor going to play very few races and watch winner after winners go by.

Teaching betting is a difficult task, I don't even know how my bet will be until about 5 minutes before the race goes off.

I can't give an answer to every betting situation, number of qualifiers for any given angle. You could demand 7-1 or 8-1 or any other odds. I can pick 65% and higher, sometimes 75 or 80% but I've found it's not how many winners you get but how you play those winners and make a profit.

What % of workout does it take to win a MSW? An STS that was out of the money in an initial outing gets overlooked. It may have had early speed and even led to the SC or Stretch which is as good as a high % workout. In fact, even better because it was from a gate under condition that don't happen in a workout. It was just a short horse and a couple slow workouts or just daily canter or jog each day maybe all it needs. Would you bet it if it also did this in its second start. I would not but to each their own?

Hope this answers some of your ? on multiple qualifiers and some situations. You learn by doing and it's the best teacher. You could make a list of key points I guess to get with the program of % workouts, it might help. Mind is just in my head.

Mitch44

[57viking]

This thread helped me with the 6th at TDN yesterday. The 2 had run 2 horrible races back to back and was now back after a 56 day rest. Based on this thread I spent time looking at the workouts to see if I could determine how it might run. The good workout convinced me to use it in my exacta as it would be the main speed. It did not hold on for the win, but finished second and paid 26.20 for the exacta.

Jim

[raceman5]

Job, talk about a wake-up workout!!!

Bob

[raceman5]

For Mitch or Ted. What do you do when a horse has the best W/o but there were only a few horses that worked that distance that day? Ex 1/2 1/3

Bob

[Ted Craven]

Originally Posted by raceman5

For Mitch or Ted. What do you do when a horse has the best W/o but there were only a few horses that worked that distance that day? Ex 1/2 1/3

Bob

I'd ignore it for the purposes of Rank%, which would be 50% and 67% respectively. There's not much info there about how it did on that surface/date/distance versus how others did. Instead - use it as conditioning info - how frequently is the horse working, at what distance, and how fast (Speed Rating).


Ted

[Mitch44]

I would ignore it also Bob. It was first of what. All 3 may be the worst 3 horses on the grounds. These work outs must be reviewed for correct surface, distance and class. What is the work-outs of the others in the race. These shine when placed in context. Putting these in context of others is the same as the Match Up. You're matching them up against the others in the race. This is a perfect example why horses should not get a 100 because it was 1st. 1st of how many. Normally the formula takes care of. As Ted said one gets a 50% and the other 66%. Not 100.

Mitch44

[Mitch44]

57 viking,

Excellent work. This is how they should be employed. Actually, its last workout is a new top, its previous best was on 17 May where it would get a 93. I the future RSS update versions, all workouts will be rated. It'll make it much easier to compare and see. Top workouts will also be in red, so they jump off the page at you.

You did exactly what this thread is about. A tool to access/ evaluate form. Is it declining or improving? A horse with a 94 rating is in form and just needs to be placed properly.

I never bet for place unless it's a component of a contest. Strictly win and never place. However, for EX and DD I include horses like this. Also, if you review my bets posted you'll see I get an extra bet with these type horses, keying it in the win position and in the place position. That is their capable of winning or placing. Either way if it wins or places I collect again. Usually, this bet may usually smaller, because I also have it as a win contender, so I have a couple $5 Ex with it. Perhaps $5 Ex on other combos and this one either a $1 or $2 bet extra. It's a public mistake and the payoffs are very good.

This Factor can help you nail the form factor, no jelly here. Again, great job and keep up the good work and rewards will come your way.

Mitch44

[Ted Craven]

Congratulations again Jim! FYI, here's the new look. Rank% numbers tweaked a little. Things do jump out a bit more clearly - and thanks Mitch for the ideas!



Ted

[Mitch44]

Beautiful stuff Ted. Great programing. Thanks for your hard work and efforts.

Mitch44

[57viking]

Ted, do you have an expected timeframe for release of the upcoming version?