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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 07-12-2021, 05:46 PM   #11
ranchwest
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Mitch44, thanks! I understood the basics of % Med. I have programmed most of the MPH calculations. I've just been away from racing for several years and I am seeking new insight. I guess I just thought I was deep into it a few years ago. lol
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Old 07-12-2021, 05:56 PM   #12
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The best way to use %med is to establish a range [by surface and dist]] that winners
run at the tracks you play. For example at Parx[based on my capping] that range for winners at 6f is currently 68% to 70 %. Horses that run below or above that range normally do not win. I review the horses' entire chart to make sure it consistently runs above or below that range. I require at least 3 such races to be showing before downgrading the horses' chance of winning. Same goes for place[& show] horses for those that play exotics. As for lay off horses I check the trainers' record with such animals and also the pps to see if the horse itself runs well off those types of situations. Finally it must rate high enough on my readouts to be considered for being a possible play.
Tim
Interesting. I hadn't considered using % Med as a criteria in selecting a pace line. How significant a consideration do you think that is? I mean, there are so many considerations to make a line "bad". Off track, wrong distance, wrong surface, too many races back, too far back on a young horse. wrong class level, horse stopped, etc. I know it is difficult to place the % Med criteria specifically into the list, but do you have some suggestion as to generally how far up the list of importance you place it?
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Old 07-12-2021, 06:11 PM   #13
Mitch44
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% Med can be used to discount certain horses such as NTL ( need to lead) horses, stretch outs etc.

Certain Match UPs force a horse to run out of its comfort zone or expend their energy too early trying to keep up. Selecting a pace line is not difficult at all, while its an important key to success it really isn't difficult at all. Follow Sartin guidelines for success in picking lines. His later guidelines, which is use the best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. A horse needs to stay within its comfort zone or normal running style to be successful. [B]On the TPR screen look at the red and blue sticks to see its normal style.

I place importance on it and also pay particular attention to any horse that changed its style in its last race, particularity if it changed trainers or distance. Especially if it increased its Tot. Energy in that race. Some trainers are slow to know the proper way to run their horses others never get this. A horse that all of a sudden rates etc. note: not because it got in trouble and had to take up.

Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 07-12-2021 at 06:27 PM.
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Old 07-12-2021, 06:49 PM   #14
ranchwest
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Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
% Med can be used to discount certain horses such as NTL ( need to lead) horses, stretch outs etc.

Certain Match UPs force a horse to run out of its comfort zone or expend their energy too early trying to keep up. Selecting a pace line is not difficult at all, while its an important key to success it really isn't difficult at all. Follow Sartin guidelines for success in picking lines. His later guidelines, which is use the best of last 3 at a comparable distance and surface. A horse needs to stay within its comfort zone or normal running style to be successful. [B]On the TPR screen look at the red and blue sticks to see its normal style.

I place importance on it and also pay particular attention to any horse that changed its style in its last race, particularity if it changed trainers or distance. Especially if it increased its Tot. Energy in that race. Some trainers are slow to know the proper way to run their horses others never get this. A horse that all of a sudden rates etc. note: not because it got in trouble and had to take up.

Mitch44
I am looking at 8TDN10 today. Horse has 4 races, 3YO, going 6f.

Line 1: 21 days 5f Ds MY high %M
Line 2: 53 days 5f D FT low %M
Line 3: 282 days 6f D FT high %M
Line 4: 338 days 5.5f D FT high %M

I don't like lines 3 and 4 because they stretch back to the 2yo year.

Line 1 has a question mark because it is a MY track.
Line 2 has a question mark because of the extreme opposite %M.

Which line would you pick? Line 1, even though it is on a MY track?
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Old 07-12-2021, 07:47 PM   #15
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Hi Ranch. Just to clear things up I also use the best of the last 3 perceptor lines at a comparable dist and surface for my pace line selection. The use of % Med doesn't come into play for me until I have identified my contenders and given each a paceline.
I use the % med to see if a horse can stretch out or if it distributes its' energy too early or late to win at todays' distances and surface.
Tim
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Old 07-12-2021, 07:52 PM   #16
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Just a further note ,based on my record keeping, to be remove from win consideration the horse must have 3 or more races showing these abnormal %meds in its' pps.
Tim
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Old 07-12-2021, 08:27 PM   #17
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Just a further note ,based on my record keeping, to be remove from win consideration the horse must have 3 or more races showing these abnormal %meds in its' pps.
Tim
Thanks. Sorry I didn't get it the first time.
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Old 07-12-2021, 08:55 PM   #18
ranchwest
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Just a further note ,based on my record keeping, to be remove from win consideration the horse must have 3 or more races showing these abnormal %meds in its' pps.
Tim
Do the out of range values all have to be in one direction or can it be some high and some low?
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Old 07-12-2021, 10:17 PM   #19
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I look for all too high or too low first. If I encounter a horse[and you will] that has a mix of too high & too low races [for example 2 of each] then out it goes for win re too inconsistent.
Tim
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Old 07-12-2021, 10:27 PM   #20
ranchwest
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I look for all too high or too low first. If I encounter a horse[and you will] that has a mix of too high & too low races [for example 2 of each] then out it goes for win re too inconsistent.
Tim
Thanks. Yes, I consider my elimination factors to be strong in the win position only. As Sartin said, the bottom of the exacta is not the same as the top.
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