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Sartin Methodology Handicapping 101 (102 ...) Interactive Teaching & Learning - Race Conditions, Contenders, Pacelines, Advanced Concepts, Betting ...

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Old 07-12-2021, 10:38 PM   #21
Mitch44
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Ranch,


In your example I would use line 2. The line it was off 53 days, its the only useable line the horse has if you make it a contender. Prime makes it a contender. It had some early speed in last and the off track may have hindered it. Has enough speed to take the rest out of their game.


The 1,2,5,6 & 9 are all UNKNOWN factors that are FTS or second time starters. Therefore a very iffy race and not a prime betting situation. If you must play just a small fun bet.


Mitch44

Last edited by Mitch44; 07-12-2021 at 10:42 PM.
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Old 07-12-2021, 10:54 PM   #22
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Sartin said; "Once a horse is off over 30 days there is no difference how long its off."

A horses form cycle is normally 30 days. In your example L 2was the only useable line, it wound not have made any difference if it was 55 days ago or 155 days or 2 55 days.

Besides the horses one needs to look at the race as a whole, hence the unknown factors in this race made it "the race" not a good betting situation. For lines I go where Sartin guidelines take me.

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Old 07-12-2021, 11:55 PM   #23
ranchwest
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mitch44 View Post
Ranch,


In your example I would use line 2. The line it was off 53 days, its the only useable line the horse has if you make it a contender. Prime makes it a contender. It had some early speed in last and the off track may have hindered it. Has enough speed to take the rest out of their game.


The 1,2,5,6 & 9 are all UNKNOWN factors that are FTS or second time starters. Therefore a very iffy race and not a prime betting situation. If you must play just a small fun bet.


Mitch44
Yes, I understand about the race. It was just a horse that showed lines that I wanted opinions on. I originally chose line 2. Now I understand that the elimination is on % Med per Tim. Thanks, I now understand that some horses have some good numbers mixed in with some bad numbers. The line selection is very important, but not the end of the story.

Last edited by ranchwest; 07-12-2021 at 11:59 PM.
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Old 07-13-2021, 09:26 AM   #24
Mitch44
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At one time getting contenders and picking correct pace lines were critical to success. Today that's changed with advancements beyond our imagination such as Perceptor as an aide etc.

Where most fail today is in not doing analysis and seeking a black box approach. Still they should do better than ever before with the present day RDSS.

Welcome back Ranch, your background of Sartin should aide your future success. Much has changed since the old days such as the improvement of % Med over the old % Early, Perceptor, BLBL, V/DC and RX Factors etc. Focus on the big picture and grasp concept and you'll do fine. Note: see my thread for beginners and read the later Follow Up's as recommended by Ted.

Mitch44

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Old 07-13-2021, 11:51 AM   #25
ranchwest
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Mitch44, where is your thread for beginners?
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Old 07-13-2021, 01:13 PM   #26
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We have space here...

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Mitch44, where is your thread for beginners?
This should be interesting for a new twist on RDSS
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Old 07-13-2021, 01:44 PM   #27
MJS6916
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Beginners & Refresher Course

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthread.php?t=12316


I took most of my notes starting from page 5, post #46

http://paceandcap.com/forums/showthr...t=12316&page=5


Good luck
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Old 07-13-2021, 01:50 PM   #28
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Thanks, MJS6916!
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Old 07-14-2021, 06:21 PM   #29
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The best way to use %med is to establish a range [by surface and dist]] that winners
run at the tracks you play. For example at Parx[based on my capping] that range for winners at 6f is currently 68% to 70 %. Horses that run below or above that range normally do not win. I review the horses' entire chart to make sure it consistently runs above or below that range. I require at least 3 such races to be showing before downgrading the horses' chance of winning. Same goes for place[& show] horses for those that play exotics. As for lay off horses I check the trainers' record with such animals and also the pps to see if the horse itself runs well off those types of situations. Finally it must rate high enough on my readouts to be considered for being a possible play.
Tim
How common is it to find horses with 3 instances of being out of range? In other words, are you setting the range fairly tight or somewhat loose?
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Old 07-14-2021, 07:59 PM   #30
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Hi Ranch. It's strictly case by case. When a horse has 3 instances I mark it as at early or late. When it hits 4 then I mark it too early or late. In some races all of your contenders will be at or above the %med level for the dist. In that case fall back to the other factors that are winning at that track. This is why, IMO, record keeping is important.
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