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Races of Interest *Detailed* Discussion of Races – Screen shots, decisions, post-mortems

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Old 08-14-2021, 12:15 AM   #1
buffaloxp
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Gulfstream park 8/15 race 8

handicapping GP 8/15 race 8

horse 3,11,12 is MTO enter

what line you use and what you pick

raymond
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Old 08-14-2021, 12:17 AM   #2
buffaloxp
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horse 1-5
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Old 08-14-2021, 12:19 AM   #3
buffaloxp
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horse 6-10
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Old 08-14-2021, 12:20 AM   #4
buffaloxp
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horse 11-12
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Old 08-14-2021, 12:00 PM   #5
Mitch44
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1 L 6
2 L 1
3 MTO
4 L 1
5 L 2
6 L 1
7 L 1
8 L 2
9 L 4
10 L 1
11 MTO
12 MTO

I can make a case for 6 horses of 9 in here as contenders. Also at least 4 horses as Unknown Factors.

Very tough race, undecided at this point.

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Old 08-14-2021, 07:28 PM   #6
buffaloxp
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my line use

1=L1
2=L1
3=mto
4=L1
5=L1
6=L1
7=L1
8=L2
9=L2
10=L1
11=mto
12=mto

my pick will post after SCR
raymond
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Old 08-14-2021, 10:04 PM   #7
Hanger
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1 L1
2 L2
3 MTO
4 L1
5 L2
6 L1
7 L1
8 L2 but hate it- GD vs FM and longer than today
9 L3
10 L1
11 MTO
12 MTO

Will also defer to selections after scratches, think the pace is vulnerable depending on what horses scratch- F1 and TS+F3 so a lot of chaos for now. I think I would have to dutch on 5 if I picked LOL
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Old 08-15-2021, 09:27 AM   #8
Mitch44
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# 1 Unknown factor, may return to previous best form.
# 2 UNK. factor, only 2 at surface and 1 at distance, could be anything.
# 4 Fresh & new cycle but 5 year old and at disadvantaged to younger up and coming.
# 5 on best can be competitive.
# 6 2nd off freshening, last needed, only 2 starts w/ much better trainer, expect improvement.
# 7 Unknown factor, disadvantaged 6 yr. old who has had several shots and against weaker however new trainer may have found hole card with last best, appears to have changed running style in last and get another fast pace today to close into.
#8 Only one start w/ new & better trainer and won. Top unknown. Looks like he wants on the lead and rated too much in previous attempts.
# 9 Unknown factor, only 1 start w/ new trainer and showed improvement from L on , may keep om improving.
# 10 trainer 33% w/ B off, improved from new trainer and only 2nd start w/ new trainer, running style improved last couple from off pace style and more effective, today gets a pace for perfect set up. Top unknown but at perfect distance and set up for new style.
Big knock on this one is 407 days since last race.

If off turf the 12 is best.

A real dartboard challenge here, take your pick. Not a prime betting race, save the house as there are better betting situations than this one. You would think 10-1 would be a good pay off for a race like this however many times I've seen the favorite or co favorite win. With young horses form belong to the connections.

Final decisions after scratches and a look at odds.

Mitch44
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Old 08-15-2021, 11:52 AM   #9
Bill Lyster
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I tried two approaches, the first was to select all lines at 7.5f turf, if I could. A couple could not because they did not have any. Then I picked lines at 8 f turf.

Using 7.5f lines the top four factor horses were:

6: 1-3-2-1
4: 3-2-4-5
10:2-1-_-4

The 2 horse was very low on TE but had four factors in the top 4: 2-4-1-2



Using 8.0f lines the top four factor horses were:

6: 2-3-1-2
4: 2-2-4-5
10:3-1-_-4

The 2 horse was still very low on TE but had four factors in the top 4: 4-4-1-2. Notice that the PL and BPP ranks did not change - but then they wouldn't, so the 2 may play in the exotics.

IN neither case did any horse have 2-#1 ratings of the four factors (oops, except the 6). probably means a price, but I'll be darned if I can pick one. Pass for me.
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Old 08-15-2021, 01:49 PM   #10
ranchwest
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1: 6
2: 2
4: 5
5: 7
6: 2
7: 3
8: 5
9: 5
10: 5

Contenders: 1,4,6,10
Pick: 1,6 / 1,4,6,10

Last edited by ranchwest; 08-15-2021 at 01:56 PM.
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