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09-14-2022, 11:44 AM | #71 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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Dirty shirts.
Back during the 1960 & 70's when a horse won at a nice price and wasn't in the DRF consensus it was called a " Dirty shirt." Nothing was in its PP's to justify the sudden improvement and surprise.
Racing Officials and management frowned upon this as it created an air of crookedness, unfairness, and thievery. It threatens the legitimacy of the game and perception of the bettors. Trainers and the horse's connections were expected to at least serve notice. Except on FTS or MSW races because of the cost incurred by owners their given a pass here. The game can't continue without investment by owners. Few paid attentions to workouts and today many still don't. Giving a sharp workout served notice and racing officials and track management were satisfied. They could justify the surprise with the public. It caught on and has grown as a justification of a surprise, few pay little attention to workouts. There are others. % Of workouts catch these served notice types before the surprise comes. With % of workouts you have an invitation to the surprise party. Mitch44 Last edited by Mitch44; 09-14-2022 at 11:52 AM. |
09-17-2022, 01:30 PM | #72 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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This is not my usual work and done on the fly, using just workouts and some separating of those qualified. I'll bet these as indicated, no time to watch EX & DD payoff. This is based on M/L odds also, eliminated some over 90-day horses with low odds 5-1 etc. these could go up. On the fly and others may contain legit favorite and legit contenders. Normally I work a race completely and have better idea on longshots etc. Using this as a standalone for demonstrated purposes. I recommend it be incorporated / integrated into your regular handicapping and true contenders. Additionally, these % w/o numbers are presently being enhanced for better results.
All at CD: 3rd # 10 $6, # 3 $3 6th Tough race # 6 legit & cutback bet # 9 4-1 $4, # 4 15-1 $ $4 9th #6 7-2 $2, # 8 12-1 $ $6 10th # 5 6-1 $3, # 3 15-1 $6 11th Probably best of these is # 11 4-1 $3, # 4 15-1 $5, # 2 20-1 $ 5 Tot. bet $47 from winnings of this. Mitch44 |
09-17-2022, 01:38 PM | #73 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Apr 2012
Location: Valley Stream NY
Posts: 9,042
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Good luck now get back to your vacation
Tim
__________________
Trust but verify |
09-17-2022, 11:28 PM | #74 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
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CD recap:
3rd # 3 scratched Total bet $44 Return $53.59 profit $9.59 3rd out 6th Won # 4 Pd. $ 21.20 x2 Return $42.40 Note: favorite placed EX. $2 $ 114.84 not played. 9th Lost Note 3 horses qualified in this one, the 6.7,8. I played the 6 & 8. The 7 went off at 54.18 to 1 and placed paying $31.08 for 2nd. Like I said I don't play Place. 10th Won #5 M/L 6-1 & was bet down to 5-2. Paid $7.46 X 1.5 return $11.19 11th Lost My # 4 played, placed, paying $14.02 The public 2nd choice won and $2 EX paid $ 150.36. Favorite in the 5th with the 4 pick in the 6th paid a DD of $ 61.36 If I did my regular, I believe I would have at least one of these EX & DD and probably both. This was just on the fly with % workout angle only. You can see the power of these plays, prices it gets and how they trigger very nice EX and DD. Gets all kind of prices. Use it to separate your contenders and find those big price horses that upset or make a profitable play. Mitch44 |
09-18-2022, 06:06 PM | #75 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Escondido CA just 25 minutes from where the turf meets the surf - "...at Del Mar"
Posts: 2,418
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Mitch, just curious. When you find a horse with workouts worthy of considering a bet, lets say one or more last works in the mid to high 90's, what about line selection if say, the last or next to last was a best of last 10? Would you still hold to not giving 5 YO that last "best" line or favor the workout % and use it?
Same question when say the last three works were 62-65-89, where the races after the third back 89 were ITM or classically "close up"? All of this assumes proper race placement, distance and surface. Thanks, |
09-18-2022, 10:46 PM | #76 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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I mostly disregard works over 40 days except when comparing to good performance races.
I prefer work tabs at regular intervals, about 7 days. I suggest reading Scott’s work on Hail the 5f work. Different trainers will show different patterns. Learning those patterns will not hurt. |
09-18-2022, 11:01 PM | #77 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Yes & no Bill, to your question.
Most horses mature by their 4th year. There are a few late bloomers that mature late. When a 5 yr. or older best race in last 10 was its last what I do is investigate the PP's to find out why. AS an example, if it changed trainers, equ. and it improved I expect it to keep improving. We don't know what its top is. If I can't find a reason, I downgrade it and or toss it completely. This is a percentage move; in that you'll be correct more times than your wrong. As far as lines I would not use that last line unless I found a reason for the improvement and would look for another line. If a reason was found, I would use it. If it worked out an 89 and ran a good race, it's in form and should improve off that and was probably short of condition. If properly place it should improve off the workout and race. Remember when a good race is run, the workouts may stop or their given very slow w/o for conditioning purposes. With that said. don't assume its staying in its stall, they still gallop or go around in a 2-minute lick. This isn't a recorded work but adds to the conditioning process. Their form can change dramatically in a week of this training, unless unsound or poorly placed. Mitch44 |
09-18-2022, 11:12 PM | #78 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
ranch,
If a horse has been laid off more than 40 days that work can be a very important piece of information. This is common for layoff horses and for them I consider all workouts since the last race. If it's had a couple races since then it less important or meaningful. Trainers tend to repeat what has brought them success in the past, they for the most part are creatures of habit. All horses however don't respond in a like manner. A very good trainer adapts to the horse and trains it based on its peculiarities. Mitch44 |
09-19-2022, 03:36 AM | #79 | |
Grade 1
Join Date: Mar 2010
Posts: 3,489
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Quote:
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09-19-2022, 08:53 AM | #80 |
Grade 1
Join Date: Nov 2014
Location: The Villages, Fl.
Posts: 3,705
|
Horses just don't jump in and out of form. For an FTS and horses coming off a long layoff
it can take 6 weeks to 90 days of preparation to get a horse ready for a race. When we see them on the track that phase of the preparation gets lost from the average player. Even with humans there are different stages, the 1st is the teardown stage where muscles that haven't been used get sore. Rest has to be given to prevent damage. After that there is a slow build up stage. Even a fit looking young kid has muscles that haven't been used. They go through the same steps. Therefore, workouts over 40 days are an important clue on horses coming off a long layoff and less important for a horse that been racing and working out. Some give a fast w/o to see where the horses is at in the process and then some slower works at longer distances to build stamina. Others choose to build stamina and then give a fast w/o just before a race. One just can't use a number like 40 days on every horses. Mitch44 |
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